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#player1 Sam_Dick-Onuoha Sam Dick-Onuoha
#player2 Jim_Burlant Jim Burlant
>Sam_Dick-Onuoha: AEFIRW 8D WAIFER +32 32
>Sam_Dick-Onuoha: AEFIRW -- -32 0
>Jim_Burlant: ABDDEOO 8D BOOED +22 22
#note Hit the clock, then realized my mistake barely 1 second later. It would have been worth giving up the 4 scoreboard points for the better leave (DE instead of AD) and safer board position (not slotting the E adjacent to the double-letter) to play ADOBO 8D. The 2-ply sim confirms my analysis. ADOBO 8H and ABODED 8C are in a statistical tie for first place; this choice sims 2 points down at 1100 2-ply iterations.
>Sam_Dick-Onuoha: AEFIRW 9E WIFE +33 33
#note From this rack fragment, Quackle says this is Sam's best play. 9C WAIF sims nearly 6 points down.
>Jim_Burlant: ADGKVYY I9 YAY +31 53
#note Once I saw the Y hook to WIFE, I rushed this turn and didn't think hard enough about it. Q prefers I9 DAVY, and that looks right. With the amount of clunk in this rack, I need to turn as much of it as I can. Though it scores well, the leave and board position render this a 12-point dog (!!) to DAVY in the sim.
>Sam_Dick-Onuoha: ACRR 11E CARR. +20 53
>Jim_Burlant: ?ADGKPV 7C GAP +20 73
#note I figured 20 points was enough to justify not exchanging, but Quackle has the last laugh. There was an incredibly cool play - albeit difficult to find - that would have justified burning the blank: H8 (DE)P(R)AVeD 49. Nice find, Quackle! Anyway - outside of this or DEPRAVED, the rest of the choices are all exchanges.
>Sam_Dick-Onuoha: DIJLMNV -DI +0 53
>Jim_Burlant: ?CDGKUV -CGKUV +0 73
#note Q doesn't think the exchange is needed, preferring C4 VUGG or J6 VUGs for 29 to this. Meh - I'd rather make him open, and unlike Quackle, I'm not so enamored of the DCK? leave (yes, I know C and K go together) that it's worth the 9 points IMO.
>Sam_Dick-Onuoha: ELX 10I .XLE +27 80
>Jim_Burlant: ?DINOOR M7 sORDINO +79 152
#note M7 bRIDOON would have been a better choice due to board position. Regardless, I'm still winning 74%.
>Sam_Dick-Onuoha: DFO 8L F.OD +36 116
>Jim_Burlant: EILLNTW C1 WELLIN. +22 174
#note Q prefers WELTING by roughly 1 point, and a look at the tile pool explains why: one unseen L vs 5 unseen T's make WELTING the slightly better play. This is second best, roughly 1 point down.
>Sam_Dick-Onuoha: KZ 2B Z.K +32 148
>Jim_Burlant: AAHIJTV 4A JI.T +38 212
#note Looked at H11 and just couldn't think of the H back hook to RAJA. RAJAH H11 is definitely the play. This is runner up, but at a justifiably huge equity loss.
>Sam_Dick-Onuoha: CET 6A CE.T +13 161
>Jim_Burlant: AADHNTV A6 .HANT +30 242
#note I put this down, pulled it up, put CHAD down, pulled it up, and went with this for extra turnover since SSSS? were still unseen. I might have only turned 3 if the 4th tile in the rack were something like an E, I, S, or R. ATNV as opposed to ADV didn't seem worth it. Also - CHAD created an easier-to-hit bingo line than CHANT, which also swayed me. The sim is conflicted: - this has the (marginally) highest winning percentage of any of the possible plays but it sims roughly 1 point down on CHAD. In reality the difference in the sim is so small as to be negligibile. Either play is as good as the other.
>Sam_Dick-Onuoha: QSU D11 SUQ +35 196
>Jim_Burlant: ADEEEOV H11 .OVED +30 272
#note Or REAVE.
>Sam_Dick-Onuoha: ABLO L10 .BOLA +24 220
#note I saw this, thought it was bad, held it...but chickened out and let it go. Shameful! Remembering news stories about the EBOLA virus, I convinced myself that it was good. The proper play was for me to challenge this off the board.
>Jim_Burlant: AEEHIRT L4 THIE. +23 295
#note No really good options available, though Quackle doesn't like this at all. Q thinks I should just fish off the I with QI for 11. No thanks. Since I didn't see any obvious standouts, I figured I should just turn 4, score decently, leave myself a decent combination, and try again.
>Sam_Dick-Onuoha: NPSU 15L SPUN +30 250
>Jim_Burlant: AEEENRU K3 EAU +18 313
#note Best, winning 84% in a short sim; nothing else sims within 7 points even after only 200 iterations.
>Sam_Dick-Onuoha: AAGIN B10 AGAIN +20 270
>Jim_Burlant: AEEIMNR O1 REMAINE. +86 399
>Sam_Dick-Onuoha: S D11 ...S +13 283
>Jim_Burlant: EGIITTU 1I GUTTIE. +9 408
>Sam_Dick-Onuoha: ?EMORSV 7G ROVE +23 306
#note Missing VEnOM or VRoOM 2F.
>Jim_Burlant: IR 3M RI. +10 418
>Jim_Burlant: (MS?) +8 426
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