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#player1 Ricky_Sirois Ricky Sirois
#player2 Jim_Burlant Jim Burlant
>Ricky_Sirois: AINO 8G NAOI +8 8
>Jim_Burlant: ??MPTWY J7 W.MPY +21 21
#note A refreshing change to see 2 blanks in my opening rack after being double-blanked in my first two games. And I'm glad Ricky played and didn't exchange; I'd have hated to burn a blank to open WiMPY for 36. Surprisingly, the 2-ply sim gives slight preference (1 point at 1000 iterations) to WIMP keeping the Y. No thanks.
>Ricky_Sirois: ADEINV K2 INVADE +25 33
>Jim_Burlant: ??CELOT 11D EpiCOT.L +94 115
#note Good thing I only initially saw ACOLYTES for 74 and couldn't find ALLOCATE; had I found ALLOCATE, I probably wouldn't have looked any further. This is one of 4 possible 2x2s (the others being ACETOXYL, LIPOCYTE, and CALOTYPE). They all sim within 1/2 point of each other and win 78%. This was held, but released.
>Ricky_Sirois: AOPTZ 7D TOPAZ +31 64
>Jim_Burlant: AEIJOTT 8A JOTA +39 154
#note I preferred this to JATO, as I'd rather float an O than an O. The sim says either play is as good as the other.
>Ricky_Sirois: EGHN 2J H.NGE +34 98
>Jim_Burlant: AEEIOTT 1G TOEA +17 171
#note 3 plays - of which this is one - sim in a virtual dead heat for sim winner honors. The other 2 are 4K VITAE and 4J OVATE.
>Ricky_Sirois: BMU 12B BUM +22 120
>Jim_Burlant: EGIIIST 13A GITE +23 194
#note Best statically, but the 2-ply sim docks me roughly 3 points at 1000 iterations; it thinks I should trade points for leave with 4K VIG. Maybe if I kept AEINS instead of EIIST, but those duplicated I's aren't worth it IMO. This is the highest scoring option that doesn't burn the S.
>Ricky_Sirois: ARV E4 ARV. +14 134
>Jim_Burlant: DEFIISU O2 DUI +16 210
#note I was concerned about back hooks to HINGE, and I figured that with this lead I could play defense and deal with the F on the next turn. Q prefers that I balance the rack with FUJI or G11 CUIF. This choice is 3rd (G11 CUIF is runner up), roughly 6 points down on FUJI, presumably due to my keeping the F. I'm at 87% winning chances.
>Ricky_Sirois: CR B8 .RC +11 145
>Jim_Burlant: EFFIOSS D2 OFF +28 238
#note Too bad there's no open D for OFFSIDES. While this play does the best job of balancing my rack, it is still a mistake because of all the easy front hooks to OFF. Sim winner is D1 FIEF 38, and that looks right. I got tunnel vision after seeing OFF and couldn't find anything else. This is a 10-point dog, and I'm still 94% to win.
>Ricky_Sirois: ADLN 1A LAND +34 179
#note Getting what I deserve.
>Jim_Burlant: EIKSSWY 9E KEYS +37 275
#note Not terrible by any means to unload KY and a duplicated S and score 37, and give nothing back while doing so, but there was a better option available. The best play and sim winner is H10 YOWIES (couldn't remember if YOWIE took the S, so I chickened out on it). I didn't like L11 SKIEY (opens too much up) or L8 KISSY (don't want to burn both S's). YOWIES 48 and defends against something like OXIDE. YOWIES definitely would have been best, but I'll take my play over the remaining options. Still in the driver's seat at 95%.
>Ricky_Sirois: AO 3B OA. +12 191
#note He's obviously closing in on something...
>Jim_Burlant: EIILNSW F2 WIN +20 295
#note ,Championship Player says this is a strong choice, though it feels I should dump the E with WINE in the same location. While EEEEE unseen is a compelling argument for Quackle's evaluation, Ricky is more likely to have an E than Quackle thinks. I like this play just fine.
>Ricky_Sirois: IX 12H XI +36 227
>Jim_Burlant: EGILRSU N4 LIGURES +66 361
#note While the 13I placement scores 72, it's way too late in the game to play with fire by slotting the 3x3 for barely 6 more points. Quackle agrees.
>Ricky_Sirois: ADEEHLS 13I LEASHED +78 305
#note I'm guessing Ricky must have been as unsure of the S hook on EPICOTYL as I was; the L8 placement scores 86. But this placement acutally gave Ricky a chance to win the game, as you'll see soon.
>Jim_Burlant: EENOQRR 5M Q. +11 372
#note If I'm having a good tournament, he gets his bingo of LEASHED and either draws the Q, or the unseen pool is such that the only question is how much I win by. With the tournament I was having, I follow up two unwinnable games by playing a solid game, only to have the draw put me in this position. The unseen pool gives Ricky a 1 in 4 chance of having an out bingo of RUBIEST. I really had no idea what to do here - should I block bingos and risk being Q-stuck? Or should I roll the dice on the assumption that Ricky can only win 25% of the time? What I failed to realize at the time was that the trick to this position was that, if he did have the bingo, despite the seemingly Q-unfriendly board, he wouldn't be able to Q-stick me because my next draw would have been an I, I and I'd have had 3 potential Q dumps. If he didn't have the bingo, he'd have to Q-stick me for cheap and we'd have subsequently traded 12-point plays and I'd have dodged the bullet that way. Dumping the Q was entirely wrong. Smart play here - despite what Quackle says - is either (A)E K13 or (L)E(A) K11 to block his potential bingos.
>Ricky_Sirois: BEIRSTU L7 BRUISE. +40 345
#note One form of luck you need to do well in tournaments is opponent mistakes, and I caught a HUGE break here. Post-mortem he told me he'd seen RUBIEST, convinced himself it was phony and had no chance of sticking, so he put this down. I had no idea if EPICOTYL took the S (it does), but with 21 coming back down the O column and a sure win guaranteed, there was no reason to risk challenging. Good thing for me that I didn't. Play incorrectly scored as 32.
>Jim_Burlant: EEINORR O11 RI.ER +21 393
#note IRONER 14F saves one more spread point. Final score recorded as 393 - 353.
>Ricky_Sirois: T B12 ..T +10 355
>Ricky_Sirois: (ENO) +6 361
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