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#player1 Jim_Burlant Jim Burlant
#player2 John_Karris John Karris
>Jim_Burlant: ACDIOUW 8G WUD +14 14
#note A quote I've heard attributed to Matt Graham: "If you can play WUD, you usually should." This is best, and it forced John into an early mistake.
>John_Karris: ?ACIKRR I8 .IRK +10 10
#note This is John's actual rack. As you'll see from the game's progression, this choice contributed to John's downfall as it made it all too easy for the board to shut down. He agreed post-mortem that 7I IRK should have been his play - he's sitting on the blank, IRK scores more, so why not open up?
>Jim_Burlant: ACIOOOR 11E CROO. +22 36
#note Or 11I KAROO. Good thing for me he floated the K, as I'm not sure I'd have been able to do anything. I'd have probably been looking at an exchange if he didn't float an E, K, L, or N.
>John_Karris: ?ACILRS 12I SCALIeR +78 88
#note Best bingo is 12I SCRIbAL; Q docks John 3 points for this.
>Jim_Burlant: AAEILOX O8 LAXE. +36 72
#note Interesting - Q gives this play higher valuation but says J12 COXA wins 1% more often. Q says my winning chances are 29%.
>John_Karris: ABEINRT 7B TERBIAN +69 157
>John_Karris: ABEINRT -- -69 88
#note As for this choice - Are you kidding me?!?!?!? Good thing I didn't play COXA, eh? AT(A)BRINE would have scored 149 and probably killed any chance I had at winning this game.
>Jim_Burlant: AINOOPR N8 APO +24 96
#note This a reasonable play but it gives up a little too much on the scoreboard - a little too much rack grooming going on. OPERON N10 sims best against John's rack, and N6 PIANO scores 30. Both of those are better than this. Regardless, my winning chances have increased to 43% from 28.
>John_Karris: ABEINRT M10 BA.T +24 112
#note John's next mistake. I was astounded that he didn't simply fish off the B with BOX 10M, and the sim makes clear that it doesn't like his choice. While this choice scores 24 to BOX's 12, he's needlessly breaking up way too much of this rack for not enough gain.
>Jim_Burlant: AGINORS M2 SOARING +72 168
#note Curious - I understand why this isn't the best bingo, as the vowel placement is a bit careless. However, I don't quite get why Q prefers E5 ORGANICS by almost 3 points. I would think the better play would have been SIGNORA M2. Fortunately I don't get burned for my vowel placement.
>John_Karris: EINNR N1 NINE +16 128
>Jim_Burlant: DEGHNTU 14M HUG +24 192
#note Odd - don't know why I didn't see THUG, but the sim says either this choice or THUG are equally strong.
>John_Karris: AMT L4 MAT +24 152
>Jim_Burlant: DEFNTUV K11 F.UVE +22 214
#note Or L11 FLUTE. I'd rather unload the V.
>John_Karris: DILT 15H TIL.D +24 176
>Jim_Burlant: DGNNOOT F10 D.ONGO +16 230
#note Best, wining 77%.
>John_Karris: ADFIJOW -ADFIJ +0 176
>Jim_Burlant: BDEHINT 13B THIN.ED +24 254
#note Q prefers E5 BENTHIC (which I didn't know). I don't see a reason to open up all sorts of lines at this point. Of the rest of the choices, the one that's probably best is BEHIND 13B. I didn't see it. This sims as the 4th best choice, roughly 4 pts down on BEHIND. Regardless, I'm still in good shape, with 87% winning chances.
>John_Karris: AEP O1 APE +29 205
>Jim_Burlant: BEEISTV 14A VIE +21 275
#note I initially put down VIES 12A but pulled it up, as I realized that with QUEEEEES? unseen, the last thing I needed was on an otherwise dead board, for John to pull QUE or QE? and hit QUITE for 68 and get back in it. The sim prefers VEES, as it would be a little tougher for him to hit something with the Q, but even with that ROQUETS is still a possibility. Given this board I don't mind sacrificing the extra points for the defensive strength of this play.
>John_Karris: AE G7 A.E +8 213
#note Just in the nick of time - I was going to play J(U)T H7 to kill row 7.
>Jim_Burlant: BEJQSTU D12 Q. +22 297
#note So, now that I defended against the possibility of QUITE or QUITS, I draw the Q. Don't you just love this game? I disagree with Q's first choice, though I do agree with its evaluation of the relative strength of the second and third place choices. Q says the sim winner is 5K JAR 20. Pfft. Q says D12 QIS 31 is the silver medalist and this play sims 2 points down on QIS. QIS should have been my choice because on this board, the S is otherwise useless and it was definitely worth the 9 extra scoreboard points. This was too much of an autopilot play.
>John_Karris: OY 15C YO +15 228
>Jim_Burlant: BEJNSTU 5K J.. +20 317
#note Q wants me to turn more tiles with JUNTA 7C, presumably to get at the blank. This would have been a wild goose chase. Q says this or JUNTA are equally strong plays and they both win just under 97%. I wonder if, in retrospect, I should have played the S for the extra 6 pionts.
>John_Karris: ?AEIIRT F1 AIRIEsT +60 288
#note Then again, both of us were blind to the E column. John's best bingos are E4 hIERATIC and RAbIETI(C) for 71, which winh 17%. This choice wins 8.
>Jim_Burlant: BENSTUY 1D BE.UTY +42 359
#note With no bingos in the unseen pool, this is too many points to turn down - Q agrees.
>John_Karris: EEEMRSZ D1 .EEZERS +36 324
>Jim_Burlant: FLNOSW C2 OW +22 381
#note 2B OLEFIN preserves 7 points of spread.
>John_Karris: M 5D .M. +10 334
>John_Karris: (FLNS) +14 348
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