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#player1 Cheryl_Melvin Cheryl Melvin
#player2 Jim_Burlant Jim Burlant
>Cheryl_Melvin: AAEEHOY -AAEEH +0 0
>Jim_Burlant: HIOPQRS 8D QOPHS +58 58
#note Lucky for me she had to exchange. One learning point from the sim results - while this is clearly the best play, this only beats 8G QOPH by 6 points in the sim despite outscoring it by 22 points. It says that the combination of (a) the S at H8 as opposed to an O and (b) the IRS leave vs. RI is probably worth somewhere in the neighborhood of 15 - 16 points.
>Cheryl_Melvin: DEEORTX F6 EX.ORTED +72 72
#note Missing EXHORTED G6 for 80.
>Jim_Burlant: AEILORV H1 VARIOLE. +86 144
#note Luckbox! The only row 11 bingo available is 11A VIOLATER, and this is best.
>Cheryl_Melvin: CDGIN 5G C.DING +20 92
>Jim_Burlant: IIIKNUZ 11D ZI.I +26 170
#note I didn't like the defensive liability of this choice but was more concerned about drawing to duplicated I's. Q prefers D8 QUIZ by roughly 1 point. The winning chances of the two plays are virtually identical, and nothing else sims within 3 points of this.
>Cheryl_Melvin: DE D11 .ED +26 118
#note Well, that's a break as her comeback could have been a lot worse. Something like HATE 12C would have scored 40.
>Jim_Burlant: ?IJKNTU 2G K.NJI +32 202
#note Better score with this choice,which is a 4- point runner up to the sim winner, 2G JAUK, which I didn't see. Just like the QOPHS play, the sim result here is very informative. While conceding 7 scoreboard points to my play, the combination of the better leave (INT? instead of UT?) and board position (JAUK gives nothing back on row 1) mean that KANJI would have had to score 37 to JAUK's 25 to be the better play.
>Cheryl_Melvin: SSU D6 SU. +12 130
#note Obviously she's got another S if she's donig this.
>Jim_Burlant: ?EENOTU 13F .EUTErON +70 272
#note I should have reminded myself that Cheryl had an S. Against a random rack, this play eventually percolates to the top of the heap. Simmed against an inferred S (which her last play made it clear she had) this choice is a 1-point dog to C1 OUTsEEN. If I put that down perhaps it takes her another turn to bingo.
>Cheryl_Melvin: AEINSTU N7 AUNTIES +68 198
#note This is Cheryl's only bingo, winning 6%.
>Jim_Burlant: AAADLNR O5 ALAN +20 292
#note Best. Not only takes out the most dangerous spot on the board, but it also maximizes turnover. While I'm in good shape here, I don't believe for a second this game is over - not with that unseen blank, espeically how many of my games had gone to this point. I want to end this as quickly as possible to minimize the number of turns she has to get back into this game.
>Cheryl_Melvin: AERTV 1K AVERT +38 236
>Jim_Burlant: AADMPRU H12 P.MA +33 325
#note Or C3 PRAAM. While turnover is important, if I had to choose between the lesser of evils, I'd rather force her to find an 8 than play PRAAM and give her a bunch of lines for easy 7's.
>Cheryl_Melvin: EFM 14J FEM +34 270
>Jim_Burlant: ADGRUWY 12J DAY +39 364
#note Best, despite the horrid leave. Too many points given up on the scoreboard with any other choices.
>Cheryl_Melvin: ACIO C3 CIAO +14 284
>Jim_Burlant: BGRRRUW 13B WU. +14 378
#note Q doesn't like this at all, preferring B6 BURG or B6 BURR. I saw those choices and rejected them, as I thought they were a recipe for disaster given the unseen pool. The leave is beyond horrid with this choice but there was a method to my madness. This limits her to B4 or B5 bingos (if she has anything down the B column) and only leaves her a W to play through for 8's on that line.
>Cheryl_Melvin: ALW B4 LAW +32 316
>Jim_Burlant: ?BGORRR B10 BRO.n +30 408
#note In this position, defending the A column was the first priority, and I spent several minutes on this turn before deciding to burn the blank. BROW for 15 and GROW for 12 just didn't seem right, I didn't think I had enough turns to clear the dreck out to build a bingo rack, and I'd rather add enough to my score that if she did manage a late bingo, I'd have those extra 15 points to work with. Both the 2-ply and 4-ply sim like M7 BRO and B10 BROW or GROW. Maybe my lead was big enough that I didn't need to burn the blank but I didn't like the idea of playing for 12 or 15 and giving more back if she decided to use her N to make BROWN or GROWN.
>Cheryl_Melvin: BEOY L3 BO.EY +22 338
>Jim_Burlant: EGHLRRT J4 L.GHTER +17 425
#note Or RIGHTER.
>Cheryl_Melvin: EFGINOS 4A F..NGS +28 366
>Jim_Burlant: IRT E1 TRI. +5 430
#note Missing 3L BRIT.
>Jim_Burlant: (EIO) +6 436
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