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#player1 Jim_Burlant Jim Burlant
#player2 Pat_Barrett Pat Barrett
>Jim_Burlant: AAEIOSW -AIOW +0 0
#note The sim confirmed my hunches about this play: while this choice is not awful, there was no need to exchange. 8F AWA is clearly best...though the punishment seems excessive for the crime...
>Pat_Barrett: ?EGHNSU 8D HUNGErS +78 78
>Jim_Burlant: AAELNSW F6 WA. +14 14
#note This is one of 4 choices that sims within 2 points of J8 SAW, the sim winner. Nothing really scores well in this position.
>Pat_Barrett: EIINO J4 IONI.E +8 86
>Jim_Burlant: AEILNOS 10G ANISOLE +68 82
#note Best, winning 39%.
>Pat_Barrett: EZ L10 .EZ +24 110
>Jim_Burlant: BDEIKSS 11K D.SK +26 108
#note Had no idea that BEKISSED (p = 23963) was a word; this would have played at M4 and scored 70. I thought this was a cute play, setting up the triple line for me to hook my S. What can she do to stop that on this board if she doesn't have the blank? Sim says 9C BISK is the best non-bingo play.
>Pat_Barrett: ?ELNTUY 4G UNT.mELY +72 182
#note Had I played BEKISSED, Pat would have still found HUNTEdLY and possibly drawn an unsuccessful challenge from me. Her other options are H1 bUTYLEN(E), 4H UNITEDLY, and M3 BUTYLENES.
>Jim_Burlant: BEEIIRS H1 BRI.E +21 129
#note I want to hook my S down the o column, and KIBEI/KIBE N11 make it too easy for her to neutralize with something like FEOD at O12. I don't like parting with the R but the board takes precedence. The sim gives slight preference to N11 KIBE. This worked out quite nicely as you'll soon see.
>Pat_Barrett: AAFTU M3 F.AUTA +20 202
>Jim_Burlant: DEIIRST O8 DITSIER +87 216
#note Back in the game, winning 45%.
>Pat_Barrett: AQ G3 Q.A +45 247
#note Ouch.
>Jim_Burlant: INOPPTV N6 PINT +30 246
#note Best.
>Pat_Barrett: ACRY 2F CA.RY +37 284
>Jim_Burlant: EGIOOPV H10 .OOGIE +24 270
#note Saw the obvious 11D VOGIE and didn't like the board; I thought it would be too easy for her to defend by overlapping at O13 and I'd still be down 30 or 40 with no bingo lines open. And VIGOR on row 14 just didn't score enough relative to the other plays. I didn't like the PV leave with this choice but felt the more open board would help my comeback chances. The sim disagrees. All I know is that, whatever choice I made on this turn, my next rack was going reduce my winning chances.
>Pat_Barrett: BDELO 6C BLO.ED +35 319
>Jim_Burlant: GJPRTVW -GJPVW +0 270
#note Death rack. I held Pat's play of BLOWED as it certainly looked strange. But how certain did I have to be it was bad before challenging it, given this hideous rack? The game's not over if I exchange and get a good draw, but a lost challenge with this rack would have clinched the game...so I let it go. Good thing, too - BLOWED is good. As for choices - this is best, with exchange GJVW a close second. I'm winning 6-1/2%...and that's about to go down to 0.
>Pat_Barrett: DELMORU 14C MOULD.ER +65 384
#note 14B LEMUROID scores 76. Pat's now winning > 98%.
>Jim_Burlant: CERRTTX 15B TEXT +42 312
#note After thinking this over, I felt the time had come to throw in the towel on this game. There are only 10 in the bag, the only vowels in abundance are A's, the P is at large, and she just drew a fresh 7. I saw REX 15B and felt it too dangerous given the unseen P. Even if I did manufacture a sequence of something like REX/WRAP, I'd still be trailing by 30 or 40 with her having a turn and the bag down to dregs. This play sims with highest valuation and 0.39% winning chances; REX allegedly wins 0.92%.
>Pat_Barrett: EJO 13A JOE +30 414
>Jim_Burlant: ACHPRRV 12D PARV. +20 332
#note N1 PRAY wins the 4-ply sim, though this is the highest valuation play.
>Pat_Barrett: IMV 9C VIM +21 435
>Jim_Burlant: AACGHR N1 CHA. +29 361
#note Not sure I wrote this rack down correctly.
>Pat_Barrett: FNOW D3 FOW. +20 455
>Jim_Burlant: AGR N13 RAG +14 375
>Jim_Burlant: (N) +2 377
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