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#player1 Joel_Sherman Joel Sherman
#player2 Kenji_Matsumoto Kenji Matsumoto
>Joel_Sherman: EFIMOPY 8H MOPEY +32 32
#note Note to Joel: Code is 272649 if you want to add comments. Probably best. One of those technical points that no one cares about, but MYOPE 8d is reasonable. However, the F works well with the open bonus squares right now, and it scores two points better, so that seems reasonable.
>Kenji_Matsumoto: ?AEGINQ 9G QI +25 25
#note As easy as a play gets.
>Joel_Sherman: FIJOTTU 10D FUJI +41 73
#note The plays get more interesting, I promise. I guess you might think about JO, but after that I'm just going to score so much more next turn, and the weaker leave, and the weaker score... no.
>Kenji_Matsumoto: ?AEGKNU 7G KAGU +30 55
#note Obvious.
>Joel_Sherman: ANOTTTW L4 TOWN. +22 95
#note This isn't my rack so I'm not sure what Joel is thinking but I like his play fine here. My range here is very weak from his perspective, although somewhat high-consonant heavy. The NOT leave just does nothing on this board, and TWAT 11b just gives so much back. TWAT 6j leaves an S hook Joel doesn't have and NOT has little ability to improve.
>Kenji_Matsumoto: ?AELNNO E5 NONEq.AL +78 133
#note Best. Although 8a and f6 are scary, there's two of them open, and there's no reason to believe Joel was saving an X or Z, although both are possible. He can have almost anything after TOWNY.
>Joel_Sherman: AADNTTT 8A TATT.D +24 119
#note Best by far.
>Kenji_Matsumoto: CDEEIOO D1 COOEED +29 162
#note Pretty bad. I played this in 30 seconds and this rack warrants 3 or 4 minutes. I dismissed DOWIE pretty early because CEO is pretty nasty on this board and it leaves open f6 which is far and away the best spot, and I disregarded COWED because the leave is disgusting on a pretty decent board. COOEED is better than COOEE so I played that. However, I just completely missed OCELOID which is clearly although only slightly better. Leaving E here is much better than I, killing the 11g S hook is meaningful, and my racks next turn are easier and more negotiable. Once the bonus squares are gone, if I still have a lead Joel is going to have a miserable time. Not opening that C at 1d is pretty significant too.
>Joel_Sherman: ADEINNY 1D .YANIN +33 152
#note Joel took a long time on this play, first playing CYANID, then CYANIDE, before settling on this. YAWN is also an option. My rack is essentially random here. Quackle likes YAWN here but I understand why others wouldn't: the volatility here is through the roof, and if you don't draw a bingo next turn you're in really, really rough shape. You'll hit about 45% of the time but if you miss you're just sad. You'll still hit 30% after CYANIN anyway. As for CYANIN/CYANID, they're about the same anyway, though CYANIDE is pretty bad. Ultimately this is really a rack that doesn't matter very much, although YAWN polarizes outcomes (making a lot more really good and really bad outcomes in the next few turns). If Joel really thinks he's a significant favorite that he's still 50-50 to win here against me, then I don't mind his line.
>Kenji_Matsumoto: AILMPRS 6H RAP +34 196
#note PRIMA and RAP are very different plays, but pretty equal. I do think I'm a decent favorite here (about 5-3) and I think that RAP is more stable (leads to less good and bad outcomes) so I think it's quite a bit better. PAWL opens an S hook that I have and he doesn't, but that hook is likely to become more of a headache for me later on if I keep my lead.
>Joel_Sherman: DEGHIOO 2D .OHED +40 192
#note Obvious.
>Kenji_Matsumoto: CIILMOS M3 LIMO +23 219
#note My advantage pretty much went away. This wasn't a very good draw, and I'm suddenly not very inclined to play defense. Any other play just sacrifices too much equity, and I'm now only around 55-45.
>Joel_Sherman: BEEGHIO C3 HOB +33 225
#note OBLIGEE and OBLIGE are more volatile options. HOB scores a lot more and keeps GEE at f4 and GEE at n6, but this board is very bingo friendly and so is the pool. The G can score but is overall still a liability. Ultimately pretty close. Quackle agrees, barely, and modified Quackle doesn't. I'd probably go with OBLIGEE. A third E with EEGI is pretty ugly.
>Kenji_Matsumoto: ACIRSSU 11G SCAUR +26 245
#note Surprisingly clear. There's 4 Rs left in the bag, and we're basically even. I don't like the idea of I duplication, but shooting at AIRS after SUCK isn't that appealing either, and fishing is just a catastrophe waiting to happen. It's not that I really like SCAUR, it's just that I hate everything else.
>Joel_Sherman: EEEGIUX J1 EX +37 262
#note Probably Joel's most interesting rack. GUILE shoots at an A, EAUX gets rid of the really hideous U, EXILE gets rid of some Es and opens a lane while turning over. All four plays are reasonable and close. Lots of good and bad things about every play. I think his play is fine, though I'd probably end up playing EAUX. Note if he were ahead by 50, EAU b7 would be pretty awesome.
>Kenji_Matsumoto: FILNRRS J10 F.RL +15 260
#note FRILL is probably better. I thought I needed the additional line and that there was a danger of Joel shutting down this board, but in retrospect closing this board down is pretty freaking near impossible. THe leave is a little better, but not that much better. In fact closing the board here might actually help me because I have to worry about counter-bingos from Joel. FURL does provide me with more flexibility next rack so that I can fish or play around with the board, and there's a lot of equity to bingoing sooner rather than later. It's pretty close.
>Joel_Sherman: EEEGITU 13I G.UTEI +18 280
#note Now I feel kind of pwned. Oh well. CUTIE is pretty much the same scenario for me if I played FRILL, I guess...
>Kenji_Matsumoto: AINRRRS N2 RIN +11 271
#note Quackle notes aren't long enough to explain this fully. Would normally play ERR, but Joel is too good for me to play ERR for a ton of reasons. Worried that board will be closed. Play didn't work, but I still like it. Also considered AIRER but wasn't 100% on airers (AIREST) Also liked representing ZG for ZIGS/ZAGS which Joel knows I'm very capable of having in this position. Note: Don't be so results oriented! Pretty miserable position. Definitely most interesting play on my side. Took 6+ minutes. Very worried about board being closed too much now.
>Joel_Sherman: BEEEIVW 1L VIBE +45 325
#note I said he probably can't score well and block very often. It'd be interesting what he'd play if I played ERR instead (VIEWER or WEAVE or n6)
>Kenji_Matsumoto: AGIIRRS L11 SI.AR +20 291
#note Despite this being 12th on Quackle's kibitzer, this play can't be any clearer. I need to score something here or risk being outscored, and GIR is a monster leave with o4 open. This rack doesn't project either since I could easily just have another S. Best by a ton, I think.
>Joel_Sherman: ADEEELW F4 DEW +36 361
#note Playing DEW isn't just about the points, but that bingos are likely to sap the pool of vowels. This gives the greatest chance of a return bingo or outscoring your opponent.
>Kenji_Matsumoto: AEGIRSV O4 GRAVIES +96 387
#note This is the right play, but I admittedly played this in 5 seconds when I had 6 minutes left on my clock. Here's my thought process: "Crap, he has TEAZLES o3 no matter what he has, and I have to block and bingo with GRAVIES. Maybe if I draw the blank I'll win. Crap, he can hit LATERIZE and LAZARETS and if the Z is in the bag he hits stuff other 3x3s but I can't let him play TEAZLES. Maybe I win if the blank is in the bag." "96". *clock* Please do not think like this, or rather only think like this when playing against me. It's pretty much doom when you do. Unfortunately, I know that lots of you probably do.
>Joel_Sherman: ?AEELSZ 15E SLEAZiE. +98 459
#note Even if I draw the blank, I still lose to SELTZER.
>Joel_Sherman: (T) +2 461
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