| Player 1 |
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#player1 Dave Dave
#player2 Glassman Glassman
>Dave: ABENOPT 8G BOP +14 14
>Glassman: AFNO 7F FANO +21 21
>Dave: ADEFINT 9H DEFIANT +73 87
#note FAINTED 6A scores 5 points better and sims about 4 points better, which tells me my play is only about 1 point better defensively. I knew there was still some danger with 8L-8O comebacks with my play, but I convinced myself that was less likely to happen than easy plays from the F on the A column. Still, I'm not sure if I actually counted the point value of each play carefully to realize that I was giving up 5 points. In retrospect, FAINTED looks like the play that I would choose more often, but somehow I went the other way.
>Glassman: EIMN 8L MIEN +38 59
>Dave: AGORUUW 7L AW +24 111
#note All the scoring plays here end up keeping the two U's. The only decent rack cleaning play is FUGU, but I did not like playing that way with the lead. The board is tight right now, and it benefits me to keep it that way while scoring points. Quackle prefers OW 6F, which may be better than my play. Although it scores 2 fewer points, it creates a spot for AUGUR, which could help me clean out this rack if the next two tiles don't improve things. Still, it doesn't seem to me that my play should be too much worse.
>Glassman: CIY K5 ICY +25 84
>Dave: AEGORUU 10D ROGUE +15 126
#note Looking back at this play confused me. I'm sure that I considered several of the 6B-6F plays. Did I really opt to play for two points less, or did I miscount the values of the plays? I'm also sure that I opted not to play ROGUE or ERUGO 6B because of the front hooks, but I'm not sure if I considered playing ROUGE there, which sims best. I might have been thinking that my play gives fewer eight letter bingos in response, by exposing fewer letters. EAU 10M is another way to play, and I don't remember if I considered it.
>Glassman: ESX 11C SEX +40 124
>Dave: AADDITU 6E DITA +25 151
>Glassman: CGO 12D COG +32 156
>Dave: ADLMPTU 5D PAD +25 176
#note The best play here is the hard to find TAPETUM N5, which I did not see. My play sims second best. Quackle agrees with my judgement that it is better than MAD in the same spot, because there are fewer vowels that go in front of the P, and I have one of them which might help me score there on the next turn. Usually P is a slightly better letter to hold than M for bingos. However bingos are not too likely here, and 4D is one of the few scoring spots on this board, so it pays to make it harder for him to use.
>Glassman: GORY 4A GYRO +28 184
>Dave: EILMTUW 3B MEW +35 211
>Glassman: AE 10N AE +9 193
>Dave: ILNTTTU 6M TUT +12 223
#note This play is another hard call, and it's one in which I don't trust the sim. The main question is whether I should play long with GLINT or GUILT, still leaving duplicate T's or play TUT as I did, which cleans my rack out best. With more than half the tiles gone, both blanks still unseen, and his last move playing off two vowels for very few points, I pegged him on having pretty close to a bingo rack, maybe with the blank and probably with at least one S. Why the S? Because the most likely bingo spot is starting with an S at 2D, and there's also the possibility of a bingo beginning and ending with S's at 11H and 11N. I didn't think it would have been worthwhile for him to play only two vowels for nine points if he *didn't* already have an S. Given all of this, the G at A4 did not seem to be the biggest danger. Furthermore, I was worried that if I took that spot out and he bingoed somewhere else, I would be in real trouble, as I'd be nearly a bingo down on a board where I wouldn't have much of a chance to bingo back. Furthermore, with it seeming likely that he might get a bingo down, it seemed imperative to me to try to improve my own rack toward something bingoable as soon as possible.
>Glassman: EU J9 .EU +8 201
>Dave: ILLNOTV J2 VILL +17 240
#note His last play surprised me, as it took out the 11H-N spot. Though it created both S and D hooks onto row 12, they would have to be in second or third position, which seemed to make bingos harder to fit. Therefore, I was very happy to make a play which scored decently and took out the 2D bingo lane. The main question is if it is better to play ENTOIL O10, which scores a bit more and turns over an extra tile (good with those blanks still out there), but keeps the V and leaves the board more bingo friendly. I think I was already getting pretty short of time by now.
>Glassman: DEKNR 3I K.NDER +32 233
>Dave: AEIINOT A4 .ITANO +21 261
#note Now that most of the other bingo lanes are dead or hard to use, it seemed like the right time to take out this lane, score, and turn over as many tiles as possible. This play sims best. Note that the EI leave is pretty strong here, as there are not many vowels left in the bag.
>Glassman: HOS L1 HO.S +24 257
#note Before his play, I was planning to play VIDE in the same place, because I wanted to save precisely my other tiles for a shot at the big play I got to make two turns later. Fortunately, he gave me a good scoring spot with the same three tiles. Unfortunately, his response was even stronger.
>Dave: ?EIRTVZ 1L .IVE +30 291
>Glassman: ?EHINRS 12H RESHINe +77 334
>Dave: ?BJRRTZ L11 J.B +12 303
#note Here I really got the wind knocked out of my sails. The miserable BJR draw seems to come pretty close to dooming me here. Without much time to figure things out, it seemed to me I still needed to give myself another shot at the big play. I hit the draw next time, but my play gave him too big a comeback. I'm a longshot to win in any case, but Quackle thinks my best chance is ARB 7A, after which it has me winning about 20% of the time. What's going on there? I see that I still have a good shot at the big play, but I'm afraid I might eat the J. I suppose he could have difficulty with the Q too, although both SUQ D2 and QAT O4 are possible. If anyone else can see scenarios where I come out on top here, I'm all ears.
>Glassman: IQS 14J QIS +45 379
#note This seals the win, but it could have been worse. He could have had QUELL.
>Dave: ?AERRTZ O10 .RsATZ +51 354
#note I finally got the play I was trying for on the last two turns, but it is not enough to catch up from his last two plays.
>Glassman: AELLOU B6 ALOE +16 395
>Dave: ER C7 ER +10 364
>Dave: (LU) +4 368
#note A good hard-fought game, and a well deserved victory for the eventual tournament champ. |
