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#player1 Jim_Burlant Jim Burlant
#player2 Jeff_Kastner Jeff Kastner
>Jim_Burlant: ACLLNRR 8E CARL +12 12
#note This position comes down to stylistic preference: exchange LNR? Or play CARL? Best play per Quackle is exchange LNR. This choice trails by roughly 2 points in the sim.
>Jeff_Kastner: IOPT E4 TOPI. +18 18
>Jim_Burlant: HLNNQRU 7C QU.N +25 37
#note Best - despite the unbalanced leave, too many scoreboard points available to not take them. I'm winning 47%.
>Jeff_Kastner: EEIMRRR I7 MERRIER +71 89
#note Sim prefers the I3 placement by 2 points.
>Jim_Burlant: GGHLNRV -GGLNV +0 37
#note Only 2 non-exchanges worth considering are 11H NIGH and 11H VIRL. Considered VIRL, didn't think of NIGH...but it doesn't matter. In both cases the leaves are so ghastly and the points so sparse that an exchange is a must. Not to mention the easy back-hooks with NIGH. Quackle prefers exchange GHLV (keep RNG) with this exchange simming not quite 2 points down.
>Jeff_Kastner: ACEENSU 11E EUCA.NES +90 179
#note The only bingo, and Jeff is winning 95%.
>Jim_Burlant: DEFHIIR D1 FRIED +33 70
#note A bunch of 12L plays (HI, HID, HIED) win; I'd rather unload the F and generate some threats. No matter how I slice it I'm winning 4%.
>Jeff_Kastner: BNTU 2B BU.NT +18 197
>Jim_Burlant: ADHHIIO 12L OHIA +20 90
#note Oblivious to 8A AHI, but I like this better despite the points. This unloads the extra vowel and opens another triple so Jeff can't shut the board down so easily. If I were only down, say, 50, 8A AHI would be right. But at this stage the handful of points I'm sacrificing is compensated for by the more volatile board.
>Jeff_Kastner: EELSTWY J1 SWEETLY +80 277
#note Jeff is now winning 99%. The other playable bingo is 13D WESTERLY 65.
>Jim_Burlant: ?ABDEHI H11 .HEAD +50 140
#note The only playable bingo here is 13B BEDcHAI(R), which I didn't know. Even if I found it, I would have passed on it. Seeing that the blank should only be cashed when it scores 30 more than my next best available play, there are better plays available. The sim is mildly conflicted. My play of AHEAD sims with the highest valuation, but on a win percentage basis is 3rd, behind 3B AHI (wins 4%) and 8A AHI (wins 3.4%). But all of these plays sim better than the bingo, which wins 2%. I saw this and felt that it would be hard to do better than score 50 and still keep the blank, all while opening up yet another line. I'm winning 3-1/4%.
>Jeff_Kastner: MO 10E OM +22 299
>Jim_Burlant: ?ABDIJL N7 JAILB.rD +88 228
#note The sim says that, even after 1100+ 2-ply iterations, I should still pass on the bingo even though none of the non-bingo options score anything close to it. In theory, I can understand this - it keeps both 3x3's alive. But I felt that for 88 points I would have to put the bingo down. The sim doesn't quite agree. Even after 3000+ 2-ply iterations, 5J TAJ wins 5.16%, with this play the runner-up, winning 5.05. But it's safe to say that, with Jeff's next rack, it wouldn't have mattered what I put down.
>Jeff_Kastner: ?AEEGNO 1H GA.OlENE +122 421
#note GASOGENE scores 140, but that's a moot point - this game is now over except for the final score.
>Jim_Burlant: AAIORTZ O6 ZOA +51 279
#note I supposedly have 0.02% winning chances.
>Jeff_Kastner: NTTY 3I N.TTY +18 439
>Jim_Burlant: AIIORTU 8A TUI +20 299
#note I initially considered QUAI and QUOIT, but passed on them - I thought it would be too easy for him to hit something like PILED B10 which not only scores, but kills everything except airballs on row 15 through the D. At least TUI does set up a bingo line. Quackle's first suggestion, AUDITOR 15F, is idiotic. But its second choice is an interesting play I hadn't though of: since I'm in possession of the case R, 8B AI, setting up the RAI front hook.
>Jeff_Kastner: FKS 13G K..FS +17 456
>Jim_Burlant: AEIOORX O14 OX +30 329
#note You'll notice that I'm averaging 32.9/turn here - it's not exactly like I've drawn swill the whole game. But there's just no defense against him hitting 4 bingos in 6 turns including a 3x3.
>Jeff_Kastner: AGNSW 12A WANGS +29 485
>Jeff_Kastner: AGNSW -- -29 456
>Jim_Burlant: AEIIIOR K5 OI +10 339
>Jeff_Kastner: AGNSW 12A GNAWS +25 481
>Jim_Burlant: ADEIORV A12 .IVE +24 363
#note My only major mistake this game - whiffing on an out bingo of DEVIATOR. Fortunately for me, this didn't determine the win/loss.
>Jeff_Kastner: EGILPV C11 G.VEL +18 499
>Jim_Burlant: ADOR B2 .ROAD +12 375
>Jim_Burlant: (IP) +8 383
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