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#player1 Laurie_Cohen Laurie Cohen
#player2 Jim_Burlant Jim Burlant
>Laurie_Cohen: IILRSSV 8G VIRL +14 14
#note Laurie told me after the game that this was her rack, and I was surprised that she didn't burn one of the S's to make VIRLS for 24. Her thinking was defensive; specifically, she was concerned about putting an S at H8 instead of an I. So how does this fare? Championship player and the sim are consistent, both docking her roughly 5 points compared to VIRLS. Since the second S adds little to no value to her remaining rack, we can assume that the board position (I on the star instead of S and an easy hook for one of her 2 S's) is worth 5 scoreboard points.
>Jim_Burlant: ?ADEEOR J6 RE.OAdED +62 62
#note Paralysis by 1000 choices. Best bingo here is J3 REcOALED 64. This choice concedes not quite 1-1/2 points in the sim at 1000 2-ply iterations.
>Laurie_Cohen: ADGIRSS -ADGI +0 14
>Jim_Burlant: ACIIMUZ 10F ZAMI. +36 98
#note First thing I saw was 13J DUCI but thought it was weak. ZAMIA wins the sim, but DUCI and AECIUM 12I are runners up, and not that far down despite giving up huge scoreboard points, such is the awkwardness of my CIU leave.
>Laurie_Cohen: AIOSSS 13I A.IOS +14 28
#note Laurie told me after the game she had picked up yet another S on the exchange and that her rack now had 3 S's.
>Jim_Burlant: CHIOOUX 12L HUIC +36 134
#note Best - wins 85%.
>Laurie_Cohen: AEEGISS K1 AEGISES +70 98
#note Best bingo, the only other playable bingo is AEGISES at 14C. Laurie is back up to 26%.
>Jim_Burlant: ADEGOOX O12 .OXA +39 173
#note This choice, COAX, or 11E DAGO sim within 0.2 points of each other and they all win 77%.
>Laurie_Cohen: EITW 14F WITE +17 115
>Jim_Burlant: ADDEFGO 1J F.DGED +42 215
#note Best - I'm winning 90%. Nothing else sims within 5 points.
>Laurie_Cohen: GNVY 4I VY.NG +24 139
>Jim_Burlant: AAEIMOT 15E IOTA +25 240
#note 3 other choices (N14 AM, N14 OM, 15E META) score 5 or 6 more points, but the leaves are so unbalanced that this is the best play, and the sim agrees. The only play simming within 4 points of IOTA is N14 OM.
>Laurie_Cohen: DNNNTTU -DNNNT +0 139
>Jim_Burlant: AEMNTUU 11F AMU +24 264
#note Ok, I was due to make a mistake. 11C UNTAME is clearly best - I missed it. This choice sims second, almost 9 points down.
>Laurie_Cohen: ABDR D12 DRAB +30 169
#note Quackle says that, even with this rack fragment, she should have played AB N14. I disagree. Given her deficit, Laurie can only help her cause by opening another line, as the only lines on this board (the D at O1) and the M column) aren't that flexible. Right now, her winning chances are in the neighborhood of 1-1/2%.
>Jim_Burlant: ENNOSTU N14 ON +24 288
#note This position is one of the banes of Scrabble: the 7 doesn't play, there are no 8's available. Worse yet, there's nowhere to unload the U that doesn't concede way too many scoreboard points or ruin the rack by wasting the S. While I would prefer to unload the U, this is definitely the best play; nothing else sims within 6 points. I'm at 99%, but Laurie rates in the 1860's for a reason. As Yogi Berra would say, "It ain't over 'til it's over."
>Laurie_Cohen: AEELPRT C6 PETRALE +64 233
#note Best bingo.
>Jim_Burlant: EENSTTU 8A TU. +9 297
#note This position had me stumped and I took several minutes before I threw my hands up and put this down. Both the sim and championship player make it clear why I struggled with it so much: there are no really good plays, and everything is as good as everything else. Valuation winner here is 12G UT because it outscores the defensive plays, but I think that's kind of pointless, as it only scores 14 and does nothing to address 8A or a 5 that plays at 10B. Among the plays that actually address either of those spots, this sims comparably to B12 TUNE, which I also didn't like. This sims roughly 3 points down on 12G UT. D3 TUNE, which I rejected, also sims well. I'm at 91%.
>Laurie_Cohen: EEPRT B10 PETER +42 275
#note Despite closing back to within 22, the sim says Laurie's winning chances are still just under 19%; a lot of that is due to that unseen blank. Unfortunately for her, both unseen E's are in my rack. Simulating against an inferred rack of EE?, her winning chances fall under 10%.
>Jim_Burlant: EEINSTW A13 WEN +25 322
#note I played off the N instead of the T because I'm sitting on the case T and the unseen pool still shows 3 N's. After looking for the bingo that wasn't there (her play of PETER blocked TWENTIES), I put this down. It wins the sim at 88%.
>Laurie_Cohen: CFIU D4 CUIF +27 302
>Jim_Burlant: ?EIJSTY I2 JI.Y +18 340
#note Quackle has two interesting suggestions here: 2I JEE and 2H TYE(E). Counterintuitive to open up H1, but a double-check of the tile pool shows Laurie will not be able to do anything there and I'm sitting on the blank. I take a mild valuation hit (5 points) but this play doesn't hurt a whole lot.
>Laurie_Cohen: LL 6C ..LL +8 310
#note Taking the bag down to 1.
>Jim_Burlant: ?BENOST 2M ONE +16 356
#note This is probably one of my two biggest mistakes this game. With the Q friendliness of this board and with the blank in my rack, I should have turned as much of this rack as I could. I was also oblivious to the easy PILL front-hook at B6.
>Laurie_Cohen: HKNNOOQ 3H Q. +11 321
>Jim_Burlant: ?BOST O1 ..BTOrS +10 366
#note Costing myself 15 (!!) spread points. Any number of B2 plays (BOLTS, etc.) score 25.
>Jim_Burlant: (HKNNOR) +26 392
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