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#player1 Jim_Burlant Jim Burlant
#player2 Gary_Smart Gary Smart
>Jim_Burlant: AAAAENN -AAAN +0 0
#note Best.
>Gary_Smart: AZ 8G ZA +22 22
>Jim_Burlant: AAEILNO 9B AEOLIAN +73 73
#note Despite giving up 1 point on the scoreboard to the 9G placement, this choice wins the sim by over 5 points. Much better defensive position, though given his next rack it may not have mattered a whole lot.
>Gary_Smart: ?CMSSTU C3 CoSTUM.S +74 96
#note Gary's best bingo here is C3 SMUTChES for 78. This choice costs him 3 equity.
>Jim_Burlant: GIKRTVW 4A VR.W +26 99
#note Best, at just under 40%. GoWK 4B also worth consideration. I'd rather unload both V and W in case I draw a U.
>Gary_Smart: AAIR A4 .ARIA +24 120
>Jim_Burlant: EEFGIKT 10G GEEK +35 134
#note Best, nothing else sims close.
>Gary_Smart: AFOR 11I FARO +25 145
>Jim_Burlant: AFIIPTY I6 YIP +23 157
#note Whiffed on PITY 12L. This choice sims second, 2-1/2 points down after 1300 2-ply iterations.
>Gary_Smart: DILO 5C .OLID +17 162
>Jim_Burlant: AFGILOT 6F FOG. +35 192
#note Best = nothing else comes within 7 points in the sim. I'm at 59%.
>Gary_Smart: ETW 12J TEW +31 193
#note Play incorrectly scored as 33.
>Jim_Burlant: AEILORT 6A .O. +5 197
#note Definite fishing situation here, with this choice simming 3 points down - the same amount I missed by fishing here instead of putting down WOO D4. I'm at 58%...but not for long.
>Gary_Smart: ACINORT E7 CI.ANTRO +70 263
#note Nice find...but B8 RAINCOAT (an awfully tough find) scores 83 and wins 84%. Gary is at 77 with this choice...but not for long, as I hit the jackpot with my fish.
>Jim_Burlant: AEILNRT 4F RATLINE +76 273
#note Now it's my turn to whiff. 13I RATLINE (which I didn't see) scores 83 and wins 46%. This choice sims 2-1/2 points down and wins 44. Regardless of which one I put down, with his next rack he was going to have a big play coming back.
>Gary_Smart: AEPSV 15A PAVES +44 307
>Jim_Burlant: DDEELQU J1 EQU.D +35 308
#note Now the choices get tough. Obviously it's time to cash the Q at 2J, but do I burn an E and give him an easy play on row 1? Or do I save an E and hope to hook it? I felt that with EEEES? unseen, I'd have to concede a row 1 comeback because it'd be too probable that he could hook QUID. The sim agrees - nothing else comes within 7 points, and I'm winning 35%. Unfortunately for me, he's got the right rack to burn me yet again.
>Gary_Smart: EMNY 1H EN.MY +42 349
>Jim_Burlant: DDEJLTX F13 EX +52 360
#note Considered other plays that turned more tiles but 52 points were too much to pass up and the duck agrees. To this point I've surrendered a total of 7 equity and am at 24% winning chances.
>Gary_Smart: HIN 2F HIN +16 365
>Jim_Burlant: DDJLOOT G13 DOL +22 382
#note First real miss this game; 10L DOJO scores 35 and wins 53%. This play sims 5th, albeit 13 points down on DOJO, and it wins 42%. Truthfully I saw this and didn't look elsewhere. But given his next rack, it's a good thing I didn't put down anything that opened an easy bingo line.
>Gary_Smart: ?EHINRU M5 UNHIREs +71 436
>Gary_Smart: ?EHINRU -- -71 365
>Jim_Burlant: DGJOSTU B12 JUG. +24 406
#note Even against an inferred rack of EHINRU?, 10L JUG and JOG are the sim winners, but I think we can disregard that. A human opponent will definitely play the next position differently than a machine, and I figured that if I opened up the O column he'd burn the blank and I'd be playing for 28 and giving back 32. With BBEEIT in the unseen pool, I thought I had a good shot at drawing into a game-clinching bingo. Play incorrectly scored as 26.
>Gary_Smart: ?EHINRU 2J .UERN +37 402
>Jim_Burlant: BBDOSTT 13A B.D +12 418
#note And now I screw up. Not seeing that he's got HEInIE in that unwieldly assortment of tiles, I figured him to go out in 2. So I put this down thinking that I'd leave myself 2 outs, at M7 and 2A. Imagine my surprise at his next play.
>Gary_Smart: ?EEHII 1A HEInIE +29 431
>Gary_Smart: (BOSTT) +14 445
#note Final score recorded as 420 - 447.
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