| Player 1 |
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#player1 Chris_Morgan Chris Morgan
#player2 Jim_Burlant Jim Burlant
>Chris_Morgan: ELMT 8G MELT +12 12
>Jim_Burlant: AAEFHSW 7F HAW +20 20
#note Quackle prefers I7 FLAW and doesn't like this play at all. I saw HAAF but didn't want to keep the W and completely whiffed on 7F WHA. J6 FATWA wins the sim. Yuck.
>Chris_Morgan: LTUZ E5 LUTZ +36 48
>Jim_Burlant: AAAEFSU J8 .UFA +15 35
#note The sim is a tossup between this play and 6H EAU. I prefer to unload the un-bingo-prone F if I can.
>Chris_Morgan: CPT 11I P.CT +16 64
>Jim_Burlant: AAEIIMS D2 AMIA +14 49
#note I wasn't sure about this play; I had seen AMIA 6H and felt it had too much potential to shut the board down with me trailing. Post-mortem XP told me he thought this was a good play that kept the board open and gave me plenty of options. I figured that with the Z out this was safe; I wasn't aware of the front L hook. Nothing really stands out here, with the top 7 choices (this is one of them) simming within 3-1/2 points of the sim winner, 6H AI 8. AI wins 39%; this choice is barely under 38.
>Chris_Morgan: AEINRSU L6 RUINA.ES +68 132
>Jim_Burlant: EEIOORS 13K O.E +6 55
#note Quackle prefers dumping the rack with 3A ROOMIE 16, and H10 OE (which I didn't know the hook to make). Didn't know that pact took a front E hook, and this had a major negative impact on how the game turned out for me.
>Chris_Morgan: DEIL 1A DIEL +26 158
>Jim_Burlant: EIORRST N7 RIOTERS +63 118
#note Other options are 14E ROISTER, 14E RIOTERS, and 3D MORTISER, and they're all 62 or 63-point airballs. I figured that he really couldn't burn me too badly unless he landed a bingo ending in ES r he had EF. As for the sim results - none of the bingo choices really stand out here, though this does win the sim by a fraction of a point over 3D MORTISER. The duck says I'm at 19% winning chances.
>Chris_Morgan: BES O6 BES +23 181
>Jim_Burlant: DGINRRW 2B DR.W +24 142
#note I didn't look past DRAWN or DRAW and I didn't think I should open up row 1 by playing DRAWN. The duck prefers DRAWING for 36. Maybe...but should I really consider giving him the easy TW in addition to breaking up this promising rack? This play gives notihing back, which you can't say for DRAWING. After DRAWING, this choice and DRAWN duke it out for second and third, with this choiice narrowly winning that battle. Nothing else comes close after DRAWN.
>Chris_Morgan: IQ 7K Q.I.. +15 196
>Jim_Burlant: AEGINRR C5 GRAINER +64 206
#note ANGRIER wins by a fraction of a point. I'm at 45% winning chances here - back in the game.
>Chris_Morgan: ?EFGI B10 FEIGn +47 243
>Jim_Burlant: ACDEEJO 6G JO +27 233
#note XP took a LONG time before putting down FEIGn. When I saw the blank come down, I figured that he had both blanks and had spent several minutes looking for the 2-blank bingo that he couldn't find, and that 47 points would be a great way to split the blanks. Turns out this wasn't the case. Post-game we talked about this play. XP can correct me if I've gotten this wrong, but I think he told me the other 2 tiles in his rack were S and X. His rationale for this play was that, given this board, 47 points was as good as a bingo, and if I didn't hit a blank bingo within 2 turns, the game would be over. I, in turn, thought that he was sitting on the other blank for sure. As for this play - I desperately wanted to play JOE to unload the duplicated E, but those 2 unseen Y's made me think twice about that. Quackle disagrees slightly, preferring JOE by roughly half a point over 1700 2-ply iterations. I think the duck is wrong here, and XP concurred with me on this one, duplicated E's notwithstanding.
>Chris_Morgan: HNOS 5H HONS +24 267
>Jim_Burlant: ACDEEKN D10 NECK +29 262
#note Burned by word knowledge (or lack thereof) again. E10 NECKED 57 would have been nice...but I didn't know EPACT. Given his next 2 racks, it would have only saved a few points of spread. At any rate - in this position I saw NECKED, but figuring the blank was in his rack, I didn't want to give him a nice juicy D to play from on row 15. I figured I had to build a rack, so ADE was a good place to start. In the sim, against an inferred blank, this play sims marginally ahead of D10 NECKED. Even H10 NECKED wins 25% against an inferred blank, and this play wins 11.
>Chris_Morgan: BNOUX 4K UNBOX +46 313
>Jim_Burlant: ADEIOOV 3D .OVIE +16 278
#note Uh...yuck. While 3M ADO scores more, I felt that the best course would be to open up a line and hope he had somehow missed the good tiles and I could hit a late miracle. ADO wins the sim with this choice second...but I'm down under 10% winning chances. And his next rack pretty much reduces them to zero.
>Chris_Morgan: ?EEINTV 14E INViTEE +65 378
#note And if I find EPACT/NECKED a few turns back, he has DENOTIVE from the D on row 15 for 86 points. This play was incorrectly scored as 64.
>Jim_Burlant: AAADGLO H1 AG. +12 290
#note Now it's just window dressing on the spread. XP nods in seeming agreement as this comes down...but I'm just blind to row 3 plays.
>Chris_Morgan: DOPTYY I4 T.Y +19 397
>Jim_Burlant: AADLO A13 AAL +13 303
#note XP nods in agreement as this comes down...
>Chris_Morgan: DOPY H13 Y.P +21 418
>Jim_Burlant: DO 15H .OD +11 314
#note ...and XP is suppressing a lot of chortling as this comes down. I had seen OD 5M but completely whiffed on the X overlap. <>
>Jim_Burlant: (DO) +6 320
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