| Player 1 |
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#player1 Jim_Burlant Jim Burlant
#player2 Ken_Kasney Ken Kasney
>Jim_Burlant: EEGIMRS 8C EMIGRES +76 76
#note Great start! Any of the 76-point bingos (this choice, 8H REGIMES, 8B REMIGES) sim within 0.3 pts point of each other, with this choice winning by a statistically insignificant amount.
>Ken_Kasney: DHI 9C HID +27 27
>Jim_Burlant: ANOORTT 7I ARNOTTO +62 138
#note Whoops. Didn't think of RATTOON 7H, which is slightly better. Ken had been having a rough afternoon, and he was shaking his head in disbelief when this came down - apparently I wasn't the first opponent to have this kind of hot start against him. I'm at 84% winning chances now.
>Ken_Kasney: MW O6 M.W +24 51
>Jim_Burlant: AABEEUX M7 .UBAE +10 148
#note Figured that with this lead I could take a turn to clear out the vowel overload and set up the X. This isn't one of the original choices but it holds up fairely well in the sim, only giving up 4 pts to 8k EX, the sim winner.
>Ken_Kasney: ?AELNRS K5 LA.tERNS +78 129
>Jim_Burlant: AACEORX N9 AX +54 202
#note Best. Ken's bingo has only marginally helped him out, as the sim says I'm still at 81% winning chances.
>Ken_Kasney: AQ N5 QA. +20 149
>Jim_Burlant: ACEKORV 12I CO.K +20 222
>Jim_Burlant: ACEKORV -- -20 202
#note Urp, quite a bad miss here. I didn't see any of the good choices (E5 AVOIDER would have been a terrific play) and was about to put down CASK when I conflated COSH, and CUSK into COSK*, probably due to wishful thinking and a desire to keep my A. The aforementioned AVOIDER wins the sim at 89%. This blunder had a huge impact on how the game turned out.
>Ken_Kasney: BHO 12I BO.H +18 167
>Jim_Burlant: ACEKORV L3 AVO +14 216
#note Still blind to any of the good plays, this is all I can come up with. I knew this was weak but like I said...couldn't see anything better. I've cost myself 17% winning chances and am in the low 70's now.
>Ken_Kasney: EFV 3K F.VE +20 187
>Jim_Burlant: CEIIKRU 6F RICK +19 235
#note Really had no idea what to do here. Couldn't think of ICKIER 13E, and would normally get rid of the U, but the duplicated I concerned me. As poorly as I played on the previous two turns, those mistakes only cost me equity but weren't game changers. But if I find ICKIER on this turn, I'm still in complete control of the game. This miss was the game changer, as you will soon see.
>Ken_Kasney: EIPSSUZ 5A UPSIZES +90 277
#note And if I find ICKIER 13E on the previous turn, he has an orphan. Instead I've given him a nice juicy place to play it for 90 points. Ken is now at 65% winning chances courtesy of all my blundering.
>Jim_Burlant: DEIJLRU A4 J.RIED +66 301
#note At least I didn't have to waste this rack on a 24-point play on row 13. Ken held this...but he let it go. Too bad for me. I'm now back to 49% winning chances.
>Ken_Kasney: ILLW C1 WILL. +16 293
>Jim_Burlant: DDILNTU 1A UN.IT +27 328
#note Best, back over 60% winning chances. I hate positions like this - I can either score, or I can balance my rack, but I can't do both. Yuck. I didn't like keeping duplicated D's but the sim veriifies that none of the other choices come close. For a better player, not a problem...for me, this would prove fatal.
>Ken_Kasney: AFY 7C FAY +38 331
>Jim_Burlant: ADDEILP 13H DIP +16 344
#note Didn't know the 9100 probability PLAIDED, and didn't know ELAPID either. Note: this sim is being run against his next rack of NEGRONI. If I had known the bingo in here, it would not have stopped him from getting his bingo down on the next turn...but we'd obviously be looking at a different game. PLAIDED wins 66% of the time against NEGRONI with this play (mistakenly scored as 15) simming 3rd, though at a huge loss of equity.
>Ken_Kasney: EGINNOR 14I NEGRONI +82 413
>Jim_Burlant: ADEELNU G8 .UE +4 348
#note All I felt I could do here was fish and hope that he somehow drew ACGOOOY, which would leave him no play on row 15, thus allowing me to draw into the miracle bingo on row 15. Quackle recommends a bunch of 24 and 30-pt plays that I don't think will do me one bit of good here: to wit, 15F LEUD wins the sim. Uh, no thanks. This play holds its own in the sim, simming 3nd in winning percentage at just under 12%.
>Ken_Kasney: ?CO 15G COs +17 430
>Jim_Burlant: ADELNOT 11A TALONED +71 419
#note Too little, too late. This rack would have been ideal on the previous turn. This is just keeping the spread respectable, but that's about it.
>Ken_Kasney: AGY 12B GAY +29 459
>Jim_Burlant: T O14 .T +6 425
#note This is what happens when your brain goes MIA for 1/4 of the game. Too many mistakes.
>Jim_Burlant: (EEOT) +8 433
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