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#player1 Mike_Wier Mike Wier
#player2 Jim_Burlant Jim Burlant
>Mike_Wier: AQUY 8F QUAY +32 32
>Jim_Burlant: ?CDIIOR 9I eRICOID +64 64
#note Gotta know the bingo to play it; out of all the bingo choices this was the only one I knew. (23.3)
>Mike_Wier: ENOZ O5 ZONE. +45 77
>Jim_Burlant: FIKORST 5K FRIT. +34 98
#note Quackle's first choice is 7I KIF 29. This choice comes in third. (-6.9)
>Mike_Wier: AEPT 4J PEAT +23 100
>Jim_Burlant: ?AEKOST 6F OAKiEST +73 171
#note Best.
>Mike_Wier: CDEENRT 10C CREDENT +69 169
>Jim_Burlant: AEEEERT -EEE +0 171
#note I didn't think that single-digit points were enough to justify the vowel-heavy leave of AEERT. For a leave of AEIRT or AENRT or AERST I'm more interested in fishing, but not to leave myself duplicated vowels. Quackle disagrees, preferring any number of fishes like EEK H4, C10 CEE, or D10 REE. (-8.8)
>Mike_Wier: HO N5 .HO +29 198
>Jim_Burlant: ABEIIRT D8 BA.ITE +22 193
#note Gotta know the bingo to play it. As far as the non-bingo choices go this sims just behind RIB D10 and C10 CEIBA.
>Mike_Wier: AOVW 5C AVOW +25 223
>Jim_Burlant: BDEEIRS E9 B.D +22 215
#note For whatever reason, I had a run at club where, for about 6 - 8 weeks, the vast majority of bingos that made it into my racks were just beyond whatever probability range I had studied. If I'd only made it to 1500, I'd draw into a 1700 bingo I'd never seen. If I was at 2000, the bingo that showed up would be 3000. The 8's in this rack were, once again, just beyond the probability range I had studied to this point, which explains the miss.
>Mike_Wier: DOTX 13C D.TOX +42 265
>Jim_Burlant: EEILORS D3 LO.E +14 229
>Mike_Wier: LLU 3B LU.L +8 273
>Jim_Burlant: EIMRSWY 14F WIRY +40 269
>Mike_Wier: ENO 15H EON +20 293
>Jim_Burlant: EEFIIMS 10M IF +28 297
#note Best - not many choices with this rack.
>Mike_Wier: AEG 15D GAE +12 305
>Jim_Burlant: EEIMMSS 7G ME +22 319
#note Best. I like this play, as it's definitely not easy to find.
>Mike_Wier: AGR L9 .RAG +20 325
>Jim_Burlant: EIIMPSS 11J PI. +10 329
#note Quackle wants me to unload one of the S's here with SIMP 13L or ISM 13K. Against Quackle I would do that in a second but I didn't want to make it obvious to Mike that I was sitting on both the S's that weren't in his rack. Also - given the pool I was holding onto the M in case I drew JA so I could play JAMB 8A, which could well have been a game clincher. The options that don't burn the S all sim roughly the same, though PIE 6B is a little better due to the 3 extra points.
>Mike_Wier: HINS 13J HISN +22 347
>Jim_Burlant: EIMRSSU L3 M... +6 335
#note The bingo obviously doesn't play, so what now? Thought about this long and hard and even though I liked this play at the time, post-mortem analysis reveals this play was even stronger than I realized. When I looked at the tile pool I only saw the possiblity of bingos with the A or the N (the 2 most likely draws in the pool), and that alone was enough to sway me. If he doesn't have or can't see LA(TI) M2 (I didn't even see this possibiility for him), he can't block this s-hook. It turns out that EIRSSU yields bingos for everything in this pool except the G, J, and L; in other words, I had a 70% chance of drawing into a playable bingo. Even if he did take out row 2 with something like AVE 2E that would cause my bingo to not fit, I still either had a play on row 1 coming back or I could hook MART with one of my S's and possibly J or V-stick him. Quackle's first choice is US(E) 6B. While that opens up the A column for hooks I have and he doesn't, he can very easliy block my 7 with something like AN 7A or better yet, JAB or NAB 8B. Then where would I be? Win percentage of 6B USE is 69%. This play - which wasn't even one of quackle's original choices- sims second best at 66.5%. And I like this choice better than USE.
>Mike_Wier: ANV 2A VAN +18 365
>Jim_Burlant: EIRSSUU 2F USURIES +68 403
#note I was intiially annoyed when I saw I'd drawn the U, as I'd been looking for the A (SAURIES) or the N (INSURES, SUNRISE). Took me a minute to find USURIES. Then I still had to wait several minutes while Mike tried to find the block he either didn't have or couldn't find. When VAN came down I waited anxiously for him to hit the clock, and when he did...what a relief!
>Jim_Burlant: (AEGJLN) +28 431
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