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#player1 Jim_Burlant Jim Burlant
#player2 Spencer_Sun Spencer Sun
>Jim_Burlant: AABMOUY 8F BUOY +18 18
#note Whoops. This was my first game of the day and I'm guessing the morning coffee hadn't kicked in yet. 8D BAYOU 26, which is much better than this, wins the sim hands-down. -13. Nothing like vomiting away 5.5% winning chances on what should have been an easy opening rack.
>Spencer_Sun: EPTW 9H WEPT +21 21
>Jim_Burlant: AAMMNPW 7H PAM +23 41
#note -4.5 pts. Sim winner is 7H MAW 24. I thought that setting up my other M would be a good idea, but the duck doesn't agree.
>Spencer_Sun: ?EIINST F8 .rINIEST +63 84
>Jim_Burlant: ?ADGMNW 15F .WANG +27 68
#note Quackle prefers 12C MAWING. I felt that if I didn't take row 15 out Spencer certainly would have on the next turn. Since I didn't have tiles to open another triple line, this was my choice. This sims around 49% winning chances. -3.1
>Spencer_Sun: CLORV 13B CLOV.R +24 108
>Jim_Burlant: ?DIJMNU D10 JUD. +24 92
#note Best, even beating B10 JUICeD and B10 JUN(C)o in the sim. Given how close the sim was here I'd have to guess that I'd have had to have scored in the neighborhood of 70 points to consider burning the blank given this leave.
>Spencer_Sun: ADRS K4 RADS +18 126
>Jim_Burlant: ?ILMNNQ 11C Q.I. +26 118
#note Tough position. It took a while to find this play and even after I found it, I had to debate whether to take the points or exchange. This wasn't just because of the terrible leave, but because, for all intents and purposes, except for something like COX or COZ B13, it otherwise killed column B - something that concerned me, given that I was trailing by 34 points. Ultimately, I felt 26 points were too much to give up. This play sims best (remaining choices are all exchanges), just under 42% winning chances. Note: Spencer's last play made it very clear he was sitting on another S, and from now until otherwise noted, sims are being run against an inferred S.
>Spencer_Sun: AKO 14H KOA +22 148
>Jim_Burlant: ?ELMNNO 4I NO.M +12 130
#note Unfortunately I forgot to write this rack down and am not entirely sure what is shown here is correct. It wouldn't surprise me to find out that I missed an 8 on row 4 or 5. I recall that, since I couldn't find a bingo and, since I was sitting on the blank, I felt I should open multiple lines for 7's in the absence of anything better.
>Spencer_Sun: ALS 10D .A.LS +23 171
>Jim_Burlant: ?BEELNO 3C ENnOBLE +77 207
#note Sims a hair better (just barely) if the blank is at 3E instead of 3D. But for all practical purposes this is best, just under 55% winning chances.
>Spencer_Sun: AY 2E AY +27 198
>Jim_Burlant: EGGIRUX 4C XU +31 238
#note Wasn't thrilled about keeping duplicate G's but this is best - one of only two plays simming above 50%, the other being 3k GURGE (which I didn't know).
>Spencer_Sun: EEIRRST 2I TERRIES +71 269
#note Sigh. This tournament had been very difficult to this point...and I really had to gather myself to make sure I didn't let this get to me. Regardless, Spencer is a hair over 59% winning chances with this play. Since the S's are out, sims are now being run against random racks.
>Jim_Burlant: EGGIINR O2 .NIGGER +30 268
#note A very tricky position, and another turn where I had to spend several minutes figuring out what to do. My initial inclination was to fish, but looking at the board and the tile pool I concluded that I would be better off scoring and forcing an end game, and I reasoned thus: Since Spencer had just bingoed, he was sitting on a random rack. Given this tile pool, it wouldn't surprise me if he had pulled at least 4 vowels. If I fished with CIG B13 (the first choice I evaluated), I figured he would have come back with something like OE at 1N, which would have effectively left only row 13 open. While this pool had many potential GAINER bingos in it, the problem was that, when I went through the litany of them, I realized most of them wouldn't play on row 13 after he took out columns N and O - where would that leave me? So I decided I had to play at O2. Since I didn't see SIEGING (more on this soon), the position came down to a choice between SERGING and SNIGGER. I opted for SNIGGER because it didn't give him an easy comeback at 6N if he had landed one of the H's. I don't entirely get Quackle's evaluation of this position. Keeping an R is better than keeping an I given this pool, so I agree that SIEGING is slightly better than my play. But is this play really that much of a blunder? Are bingos like HEAVIER, FEATURE, HETAERA, and RETINAL so big of a threat that they make this play a bigger defensive liability than putting an I next to N6 with HH unseen? I don't think so, because SERGING wouldn't be down within one point of SNIGGER in the sim if that were the case. I'd have figured that SIEGING would narrowly beat out SERGING and SNIGGER. What I don't get - my choice, while scoring identically, takes a 9.6-point hit in the sim compared to SIEGING (the sim winner) and scores 1 point lower than SERGING. In between SIEGING and SERGING are a bunch of potential fishes including F2 YOGI (which is psychotic, IMO, given that C is unseen) or B13 CIG leaving RINGE as the obvious bingo fishes. In any event SIEGING sims at 36%, and this play comes in at just under 29.
>Spencer_Sun: CINOT 1A TONIC +28 297
>Jim_Burlant: DEHIIOT 13I IDIOT +23 291
#note Gee...if I'd kept the R on the previous turn I'd have had THEROID. ;-) Removing tongue from cheek - Didn't know the first choice. This choice is second best, at 24% winning chances. First choice is DHOTI in the same location, simming at 32%.
>Spencer_Sun: AEU 10J EAU +13 310
>Jim_Burlant: AADEHLZ N8 ADZ +35 326
#note Saw HAZE 12-L and when I was calculating the score I kept coming up with 36 points, not 46 which swayed my decision. If I'd scored it correctly I'd have played that without even looking for anything else. Anyway - I felt that if I wanted to win the game I had to prolong it as much as possible and that meant playing short. Quackle does not like this choice at all, which sims at 37%. I like this play lots more than Quackle does and you'll see why as the game unfolds...
>Spencer_Sun: EEV 11M VEE +20 330
>Jim_Burlant: AEFHHLR 12L HE +26 352
#note His V dump opened up a spot where I could play short and outscore him. I had initially put down HA keeping the E, but thinking that I was going to play short I had thought I might need to keep the A just in case I had to play AH 2A. I hadn't fully recognized the impact of this decision yet, but it proved very beneficial to me. I was too fixated on lengthening the game to consider adjusting my strategy. HER 11I would have guaranteed me an out next turn with HALF in two locations but I didn't see this. Even with this imperfection, I still put the onus on Spencer to make the right play...
>Spencer_Sun: EFIOT 11I FET +23 353
#note ...and he missed it. IF 3L wins 100% and I'm helpless against it. Fortunately for me he doesn't see it.
>Jim_Burlant: AFHLR M5 HALF +17 369
#note After double-checking my tracking and recognizing that he had out plays both at 2A and 14M, I had to adjust the strategy. After a couple of minutes, I found the win. Relief! Note: Final score recorded as 369 - 367. No recount was asked for.
>Spencer_Sun: IO 14M OI +11 364
>Spencer_Sun: (R) +2 366
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