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#character-encoding UTF-8
#player1 Barry_Keith Barry Keith
#player2 Jason_Vaysberg Jason Vaysberg
>Barry_Keith: ADIIO H8 OIDIA +14 14
>Jason_Vaysberg: BCEKLNR 12F BL.CKEN +30 30
#note Lots of options here. BRICKLE F11 sims best, but less that ~0.5% win difference between the top several options, including BLACKEN
>Barry_Keith: AESV M10 VASE +30 44
#note Scored as 31.
I hated this play because I wasn't 100% sure that -S was the only hook for VASE. He also thought for awhile, so figured he was close to bingoing and likely had another S or the blank.
>Jason_Vaysberg: EEFIRUW I7 WIFE +32 62
#note best. This also does a great job blocking many potential bingoes, if my read on Barry's strength is correct.
>Barry_Keith: ADEOORS 14G ROADEOS +70 114
>Jason_Vaysberg: ?EEIRUV 15E VIER +29 91
#note Best, but not thrilled the board is shaping this way after Barry's bingo.
>Barry_Keith: ALPTY 13B PATLY +27 141
>Jason_Vaysberg: ?BEEOUY 14C YOU +19 110
#note Very poor turn and I think I leveled myself here. I recognized the strength of YOU 14C setting myself up for 14A BAYOU, but that setup just isn't that strong compared to getting 36 points now.
Additionally, I couldn't remember with confidence if J10 YUKE was a verb, as if 5's with a K wasn't one of my last second preparations for this tournament. But even J10 YOKED is much, much better. Both plays set up a bingo lane in the K column.
Not happy with this turn at all. I want to use that this was round 31/31 of the weekend as an excuse, since I know I'm better than this, but this was my mistake. ~10% winning chance lost here.
>Barry_Keith: AEX 15A AXE +36 177
#note Man, A14 BAYOU or plays like A14 POYOU just got a big upgrade.
>Jason_Vaysberg: ?BEENUU 11K BE.U +22 132
#note This play sims about the same as 10F UNDEE which I did not know or see at all. UNDEE takes no hooks, surprised Quackle likes it.
8 hooks on BEAU remain unseen, this is unideal to say the least.
Other options like J10 NUKED don't sim as well. Exchanging to B? sims worst of these 4 options, but I considered that too, due to the BAYOU spot aforementioned. I'm not sure why this play ranks so poorly. Similar exchanges to BE? or BN? do even worse. One final option is J12 KUDU to shed my U's and prevent scoring plays fromJ10, which I think would be a better play if I wasn't at danger of getting more than a bingo down on a rapidly constricting board.
I honestly just hate all my options here, but I feel like I put myself in this position with YOU. I am imagining the board as if I played YUKED first in this exact scenario (I know, I know) and I just can't help but feel like if Barry made plays like 14B AXE, my opportunities with then BENOUU? to shed a U with a play like 15A UN and try to get lucky with BEOU? just looks a lot more promising. I know all of this is hindsight bias, but I think it gives a picture of how my mistake snowballed here.
>Barry_Keith: ?AINRST O9 ReTSINA +78 255
#note plays like O9 gASTRIN would have make my life harder. Barry is over 96% to win right now regardless.
>Jason_Vaysberg: ?ELMNNU D11 UN.. +8 140
#note 10F LUDE is slightly best. Although it does assume I will find all the low prob 7's. It's hard to compare a bunch of plays that give me <4% win percentage, but UNTO is right in the mix. Just unfortunate.
>Barry_Keith: GJU 10D JUG +27 282
>Jason_Vaysberg: ?EELMNR 11C L.M +18 158
#note Tied best with NEUM 11B. But now down to 2% to win.
>Barry_Keith: GI B11 GI. +13 295
#note My next big blunder this game... I thought AGLUM* was good and got excited. ALGUM and ALMUG are valid.
>Jason_Vaysberg: ?EENORZ N6 ZONE +35 193
#note This play sims 2nd to N6 ZERO by a small margin. Not totally sure why. ZONE bingos slightly more often and pool is balanced with N and R. I would think the OZONE hook is to my benefit.
>Barry_Keith: AINP O4 PIAN +22 317
>Jason_Vaysberg: ?DEEERR 9G R..E +8 201
#note J6 RE for 9. No good options though. Maybe Barry doesn't know the only hook for RIFE(R), but I doubt that.
>Barry_Keith: EORTW K5 TOWER +24 341
>Jason_Vaysberg: ?DEEHNR L2 iNHERED +88 289
#note best.
>Barry_Keith: HT 3L .TH +12 353
>Jason_Vaysberg: AAGILMT J5 AM +24 313
#note 2K Gi wins 1/9 (D for MATILDA)
6J MOR ties 1/9 (D for TAILGATED)
I actually saw the TAILGATES/D possibility. Keep in mind, I still thought AGLUM* was a viable bingo lane on this board. I even thought about trying MAILTAG* here forming two phonies with AGLUM* lol Not my finest game of Scrabble. My play never wins in actuality.
>Barry_Keith: DIOOQST 12A Q. +21 374
>Jason_Vaysberg: ACGILTT 5E GLACI... +22 335
#note I had less than 10 seconds on clock going into end game.
I1 TICAL is best. I3 TIT comes up as best on Quackle if you sim, but Quackle isn't looking far enough ahead to recognize Barry's blocks on me and ability to drop F on J10 for 28 points.
5E GLACIATE is wrong regardless.
>Barry_Keith: DFIOOS 10H ..F +28 402
#note 6D FOOD
>Jason_Vaysberg: TT G5 .TT +4 339
#note Scored 403-351
Thus ending my 6 game losing streak to end a promising looking Albany tournament. I think I am going to have to dig deep into how I played down the stretch of a long tournament like this one. I learned a lot from reviewing these games though. I will try to keep doing this in tournaments in the future.
>Jason_Vaysberg: (DIOOS) +12 351
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