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#character-encoding UTF-8
#player1 Eric_Goldstein Eric Goldstein
#player2 David_Weisberg David Weisberg
>Eric_Goldstein: GINWY 8D WINGY +32 32
>David_Weisberg: ACEFOST 9H OF +14 14
#note 9D OF 15 sims nearly points ahead of this and 2 points ahead of 7H OF 14. I didn't think 9D would be helpful since it mostly limits my bingos to ending with S for the SWINGY hook. I had a harder time deciding between 7H and 9H, but I figured overlaps from the 9H positioning would be less likely to interfere with SWINGY, especially if my bingo had S in 6th or 7th position. Maybe the bingos I get with OFT after the 7H positioning are better because they're less likely to float an S on the 2x2 or on row 12. Tough call but I had the right idea with some placement of OF.
>Eric_Goldstein: NOQU E5 QUO.N +28 60
>David_Weisberg: ACEISTU -IU +0 14
#note E5 ACUITIES 90 was blocked. The only play I really considered besides exchanging was 5B CAIQUE, which sims best along with F4 AIT 20. I don't think AIT does me many favors, and the problem with CAIQUE, even when he doesn't have S, is that it's too easy to block the triple, and that's my only place to score much unless I draw just right to ST next turn. My exchange sims 6 points back, but I still think it's better to go for a bingo here, given he's ahead and the board is still very open. Exchanging IU bingos 58% according to a sim, and exchanging just U bingos 59%, though I don't see how, given how many draws could go wrong (any vowel draw, for example) and a likely more defensive response from Eric. I still like my exchange best.
>Eric_Goldstein: AEEG 9B AGE.E +15 75
>David_Weisberg: ACEKLST J9 TACKLES +73 87
#note The only bingo.
>Eric_Goldstein: IY 11I I.Y +16 91
>David_Weisberg: ABDRSTU 15H BU.TARDS +158 245
#note Eric later told me he was going to play ISSUE or something like that and keep IY and something else, but I guess his rack was close enough to bingos for it to seem worth risking leaving the S open. I was very lucky this stayed open.
>Eric_Goldstein: EILS 10B LIES +34 125
>David_Weisberg: BDIOOTU 14N OI +12 257
#note I missed M9 BOUDOIR 26, which is by far best despite setting up the X. I often have counterplay after an X bomb, and this scores decently while turning over a lot of junk. I had considered N10 OUTBID 22, but it didn't seem worth opening the triple. 12J KOBO 25 would have been a good middle of the road play, still scoring well and not giving much back. I didn't see this option. I did look at 14L BOO 22, which doesn't completely block the O column as he can still end in MS, NS, RS, or TS, but the extra 10 points over OI is a lot. BOUDOIR sims 8 ahead of KOBO, 10.5 ahead of OUTBID, 11 ahead of BOO, and a staggering 24 ahead of OI. I did not have enough of a lead to be this paranoid, and this rushed turn would prove to be a major misstep.
>Eric_Goldstein: ??AMOSU 5D S.UAMOus +84 209
#note His best option.
>David_Weisberg: BDLNOTU 6H UNTOLD +19 276
#note Quackle likes 13L BUND best, followed closely by 6G BUNT 21. Just about even with BUNT is 13I BLUNT 20. It didn't occur to me to play elsewhere than the upper part of the board, as that area is where he can most easily open new bingo lines. However, as restrictive as UNTOLD otherwise is, it does open a new bingo line on column M, something I downplayed when evaluating it at the time. It sims 4 points behind BUNT, but I'm still not sure, because it seems Eric could fork the board next turn with the right kind of play on row 4 after BUNT, which is much harder after UNTOLD. I don't know what is best here but UNTOLD looks reasonable.
>Eric_Goldstein: AEEEHRT 13C ETHEREA. +76 285
#note He also had B2 AETHEREAL 78, though the two plays sim about evenly. They both give back a lot, but ETHEREAL sets up the X, though that in turn gives back big row 15 plays. I know he didn't see AETHEREAL because the hook to his bingo came up later and neither of us saw it. Had he seen it, it would have been an interesting decision for him.
>David_Weisberg: BDDFNOV F2 VOD.N +23 299
#note Ugh. Well, at least I had this spot.
>Eric_Goldstein: EHIV 4A HIVE +32 317
#note After he played this he said "Do it again and I'm going home."
>David_Weisberg: ABDFGNR B1 FAR.NG +28 327
#note I didn't see B12 BARF 30 since I didn't see the A hook to AETHEREAL. It sims best by almost 2 over FADING. FARING sims half a point behind FARING. I knew it was close between those two but I went with FARING since I had the last D and there were 3 unseen R's. With X and Z unseen, it seemed wise to block columns A and B. I think the value of BARF might be in blocking his own AETHEREAL plays, and maybe in keeping GN for all the I's remaining, but it doesn't seem decisively better than FADING or FARING.
>Eric_Goldstein: ACPR 13L CARP +25 342
>David_Weisberg: BDEILOO M2 BLOO.IED +80 407
>Eric_Goldstein: EJT 8L J.TE +57 399
>David_Weisberg: AEIIIRW 14F WE +28 435
#note This was one of the crucial turns it came down to. I was low on time by now, with what looked like one of the worst possible post-bingo draws. Nonetheless, apparently I'm still the favorite. A 6-ply sim has 14C WEIR as the top play, winning 65%. N1 WAIR wins 57%, followed by 12C WAE at 57%. N1 WEIR 26 only wins 51%. Of the other plays blocking the X spot, 14E AWE 34 wins 47%, 14E AW 31 wins 43%, 14E EW 31 wins 40%, and my play wins 38%. It was just a shot in the dark as I felt like I'd need to draw X or Z to have any chance.
What I didn't realize is that it's surprisingly difficult for him to overlap WEIR for much, especially using X or Z. Also, if I draw X, I can possibly play N1 XI 26 and threaten XI for 27 or worse, with Eric having little way to stop it. This occurred to me even as I made my own play, but it's more effective when I've already used one of the 3 I's. I'm not sure if after WEIR that 12C MAP 46 would be too much to overcome, but it might be hard for him to go out first unless he also has the E, and if he has both X and Z, that will slow him down too, as he could only play both with 2A ZAX 19. Super complex pre-endgame here, which would have required at least a few extra minutes to possibly get right. I'd like to think that even a much stronger endgame player might have had a hard time with this.
>Eric_Goldstein: AMNPTXZ 4L P.M +14 413
#note It turns out this still loses for him. His only winning play according to Quackle is 3D MPOX 28. It threatens 8A ZA 36 or N1 ZA 30. The best block for 8A ZA is apparently A6 AIR 12, which sheds an I but also the A I'd need to use the triple after N1 ZA. If I block the N1 spot first, say with N1 REI 16, he still overtakes me by 12 after 8A ZA, and then I can't play for enough with AIIR (B13 AIR 18 or B12 RAI would be best) before he goes out with D7 TWEEN 10, 4L TON 10, or F12 NEWT 7. His 5 point NT plays would even be enough, if he missed these others.
>David_Weisberg: AEIIIRR 1A A.IRE +27 462
#note I had pretty much given up by now, and was close to overtime, but I still have a number of winning lines since he's more limited with X and Z than it appears. My best play looks to be 12B IRE 12. Then his best play is evidently 14A ANT 9, forcing an out with 2A ZAX 19, since I need to then block A13 ZAX 57.
Another winning line starts with B13 AIR 18. Then his best play would be C12 TEN or NET 5, threatening A14 ZA 51 or D1 ZAXES 31 (an out play). The trouble with this is, if I block ZAXES with something like 1B FIR, he can no longer use his X and Z at once. He plays ZA for 51, and I can then go out with 3M LEI 7 (or even D13 TIE 17 if he happened to choose NET) and catch him with the X, easily winning.
As I saw it at the time, my choices were 1A AFIRE 24 27 or 2D RIVIERA 12 (a play not even kibitzed by the engine). I thought I couldn't go out for enough after RIVIERA, even if he only plays 14A ZAX 47 instead of B12 ZAX 50 (again, neither of us saw AETHEREAL), but I could have gone out for 1A IF 15 and won! By the time I made my decision, I had gone into around 30 seconds of overtime, so given that, even RIVIERA doesn't win unless I pull the trigger quickly enough. I think I had been very close to doing so and just panicked. Rough finish to a very exciting game.
>Eric_Goldstein: ANTXZ 14A ZAX +47 460
>David_Weisberg: IIR 2K RI. +5 467
#note I'm pretty sure I was overtime here, but if I wasn't, C12 REX 10 actually wins unless he finds D7 TWEEN 10 next turn.
>Eric_Goldstein: NT 2A T.N +7 467
#note C12 NEXT 11 or D7 TWEEN 10.
>Eric_Goldstein: (I) +2 469
#note I went overtime, so the final score was recorded as 469-457.
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