| Player 1 |
|
#character-encoding UTF-8
#player1 Seth_Lipkin Seth Lipkin
#player2 Jackson Jackson
>Seth_Lipkin: BEJORVY 8G JOY +26 26
#note lots of interesting options here - JOY sims right at the top with JOB and BEVOR. BEVY is also reasonable, and I think BEVOR V on the star is worth considering, though the sim doesnt like it as much.
>Jackson: ADIOOOS 9G ODA +25 25
>Seth_Lipkin: BEEGRUV 10E VUG +20 46
#note BEG is a cool play to make the square and keep things really tight. VEER also does something similar. Both plays sim a few points ahead of VUG, which is very reasonable, especially with BR- options above JOY and BREE playing relatively well through the V. Obviously sucks to make a super S dependent board with BEG but the upside when I don't have one is pretty high
>Jackson: GIKOORS 7H GROK +22 47
#note just couldnt remember if GOOK was still good or expurgated, I was leaning towards about 75% it was good, but that's not enough when it's a pretty marginal difference between plays. That said, other options are KOI/YAK, which sneakily sims even with GOOK. Very tough play to pull the trigger on, but it just has a much better defense than GROK and keeps the board S dependent. GORS is not great but does play fairly well through the I and kinda forces Seth to open the board if he wants to play anything decent. VIGOR is another good play that sims at the top, the S setup is great holding the K to hit 50+ point -KS words. GROK sims about 2 behind, I did like the OK setup and keeping things S dependent, but GROK gives Seth many more options and of course holds a riskier leave
>Seth_Lipkin: BEEPRTX E10 .EXT +28 74
#note really tough turn here. BO keeping EXPERT is really not crazy, this board is one where it's good to play chicken, the first person to open will often get hit hard. The top simming plays are KERB and BERK to the K - BERK is more standard and is a minor X setup, and the X can overlap fairly well even when I take the spot. KERB is a clearer X setup, hitting EXPAT and other things. KERB might be better against some opponents, I hope I would have sniffed it out but it stil puts me in a tough position.
>Jackson: AFIIOSU D11 FOU +37 84
>Seth_Lipkin: ABEEPRU K3 BREA.UP +30 104
>Jackson: ADEGIIS L2 GIED +23 107
>Seth_Lipkin: ADEOTTU L9 OUTDATE +72 176
>Jackson: AEIPSTW M7 TAWPIES +109 216
#note wild
>Seth_Lipkin: AEINNSW K13 WIN +16 192
#note Seth was close to taking WIN or WINE or WINES at M1 but changed to this last second - he got spooked about blocking the N column, letting me take the 15 row, and having himself walled in down 40. Totally understandable worry. I think I would still take WINE here, just hope I don't hit the E too hard and go from there. The board may be getting closed but the game is still young...
>Jackson: AAEHNYZ J14 ZA +66 282
#note wild turn of events from where I was sitting
>Seth_Lipkin: ?AEIINS N1 SENArII +68 260
>Jackson: AEHLNOY O7 ENHALO +33 315
#note Was really close to playing HON/WASH here to set up WASHY plays. While I am in a great position here on this board, there is still so much that can happen from here on out. I was pretty neutral on turnover here, the blank would obviously be great just to prevent Seth from making bingo openings with good potential later, but the Q would also be a disaster. If anything I might want to reduce turnover here and focus on winning when I don't draw the blank. I liked enhalo finally because I saved the Y for the J6 Y drop, which is likely going to be a very strong play next turn, blocking the dangerous 5 row while scoring well. WASH might lead to some worse scenarios if he blocks at O14. Still looks close
>Seth_Lipkin: ADEIOST O1 ODEA +32 292
>Jackson: CEEEFLY 6J Y. +26 341
#note the leave of FLEECE is worth 1.6 according to quackle, cool. FLUTEY is obviously the standard play here, and I think after all is said and done it is still the best play. I think against good players, plays like YA can often backfire because there is still a lot they can do, even just by being patient and trying to outrun slowly. YA finishes the wall of the top left, and really commits to that plan. OBI will definitely come into play at some point, and I have to be prepared to try and block bingoes. What ultimately pushed me towards YA was that I save 3 of the 4 final Es, and the C - the dearth of Es will really hinder Seth's bingo chances going forward, and since vowels will likely be required to make good openings, I saw a future where he would be drawing just Is and consonants into his blank and never be able to hit a bingo. The C can also help play defense. I still think FLUTEY is probably the play just because of the Q, which can totally thwart my plan with YA - if there was no Q in the bag I would be more comfortable playing YA.
>Seth_Lipkin: EHILSTV C13 HIT +24 316
#note interesting play, and a nice and aggressive play to force me to block. It is annoying that there are so many hooks to FOU in the pool making it not so hard to block SHUT, but if I don't have the right combos it might be annoying to block without giving back good scores. SHIV scores a ton and is the more patient play here, hoping Seth can avoid the Q and see me caught with it
>Jackson: CEEEFLT 14B F.L +19 360
#note even now I could do FETTLE and play it cool, blocking HUT next turn, trying to outrun bingoes he could occasionally hit. I don't mind it - the saving grace of FIL here is that if he does hit at 15a, he has to spend the A or the E, which will really cripple his opportunities later. I also keep CETANE which is nice. I was slightly worried about -ANE- triple triples the whole way, but I had such trouble coming up with any actual words that I felt like it must be a pretty tough spot to hit.
>Seth_Lipkin: EILRSSV 15A VE.S +38 354
>Jackson: ACEEENT 15G CET... +24 384
#note hoarding vowels for the pool, never playing COXAE
>Seth_Lipkin: ILNORRS 3H ORI.. +8 362
#note finally happening
>Jackson: AEEMMNQ J2 Q. +31 415
#note Super interesting turn. I considered mainly QI, MEME, and MAMEE. I wasn't 100% sure of MAMEE so I didn't seriously consider it after a bit. QI basically goes for outrunning bingoes or blocking if he doesn't hit immediately. It is a really cusp scenario where I can outrun some but not all bingoes - stuff like SCRIBaL might be tough to outrun, but SALICIN leaves him with 5 consos in the endgame and I should be able to squeak it out. After looking at some racks, I seem to outrun almost all immediate bingoes except the absolute worst ones, so QI does really well then. He could hit me with a setup, like he ended up doing, but I think I can still outmaneuver in these situations to win often. MEME and MAMEE go for the block - MEME would be played at 4E for sure, forcing him to end with an R for bingoes. It cuts his bingo% a ton, to around 3.5% (in a vacuum), MAMEE cuts it to around 7%. Definitely bit higher in reality given his range over many turns. The question is whether MAMEE or MEME could get outrun, especially when Seth opens a new threat for bingoes next turn. RoB is 24, blocking QI, but MEME and MAMEE do make a new underneath to score, and so I could probably withstand a Q stick. It is hard for Seth to outrun me because blocking the Q requires playing just one tile for 4 like LI, or burning the blank, which leaves him with drek to outrun. For this over the board I felt like it was a question of how often do the bingoes after QI actually outrun me vs. how often can he bingo after MEME/MAMEE? Tough call, and both seem like very winning plays by the numbers, but it seems like QI does better given this question. The secondary question is how often Seth can effectively counterfish after each play, and I think QI definitely leaves him with better options for fishing, as we saw with NOB. MEME forces him to fish 1 tile or empty the bag, which will give me a huge advantage. Over the board I wasnt so worried about his fishes or setups, thinking I could still ensure a win almost all the time, but maybe QI does fall worse than MEME longterm given that consideration. Thoughts welcome.
>Seth_Lipkin: BILLNRS H2 N.B +8 370
#note forgoing LOB because of LOBE blocks
>Jackson: AEEMMNR 2F ME. +11 426
#note ILR, LRR, LLR, NRR, IRR, CLR, CRR in the bag all give him bingoes with NOBS. I find it hard to imagine MEN is not the best play here, given that it always outruns scoring plays on the 1 row, and can sometimes draw into counter bingoes on the 1 row when Seth hits NOBS (all of seth's bingoes play only with NOBS after MEN due to IM*) - emptying the bag seems dumb because it loses just as much as MEN will, except MEN saves a few of those losses with counterbingoes. This might be a tick in favor of MEME last turn, given that my blocks of his opening plays are far from perfect, and it gives him an extra turn to groom his rack.
>Seth_Lipkin: ILLNRRS F2 .ILLS +9 379
#note gotta block CERIMAN with CERIMAN? in the bag
>Jackson: ACEIMNR 12C C..A +22 448
>Seth_Lipkin: ?NRR 3C NoR. +6 385
>Jackson: EIMNR 6A MINER. +10 458
#note super interesting game - starting back from ENHALO even, I don't regret the choice to take the board in this direction, but I think this game also serves as an example of why these fortress shapes are not as solid as they first appear.
>Jackson: (R) +2 460
|
