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#character-encoding UTF-8
#player1 Jackson Jackson
#player2 Jeremy_Hall Jeremy Hall
>Jackson: FGHRUUV H7 VUGH +22 22
>Jeremy_Hall: AEN G8 NAE +15 15
>Jackson: AEFIRUU F10 FEU +31 53
>Jeremy_Hall: EINPRSU 13B UPRISEN +77 92
>Jackson: ABINNRU 11C UNB. +12 65
#note AUBURN as well for a more thematic, board opening play, but UNBE is nice to keep things tight on a tight board, and its still early. AINR hits the 12 row fairly well
>Jeremy_Hall: AAAEESZ I9 ASEA +20 112
>Jackson: AEINRST J3 RATINES +64 129
>Jeremy_Hall: AELSTYZ 4I L.ZY +32 144
>Jackson: FGILOOQ H1 FLOG +50 179
#note sims a couple above QI - QI is blocked less often than GLAZY, plus he sometimes draws the G for glazy himself, and the Q can probably improve a bit more than FLOOG here, despite no Us remaining. Makes the decision seem fairly clear
>Jeremy_Hall: AEGOSTW 5J .AE +33 177
>Jackson: CDDIOQT B12 Q.OD +28 207
>Jeremy_Hall: EW A14 WE +29 206
>Jackson: CCDIORT 8J .ROTIC +27 234
#note or ACROTIC, which raises his average by 6 and mine by 4 - not bad to blow the board open and reach for the ?s, but EROTIC seems like a bit of a safer option that doesn't give him full rein over the openings.
>Jeremy_Hall: AEINSTT 1H .AINTEST +86 292
>Jackson: CDIIJLV 2F JI.L +29 263
>Jeremy_Hall: OOT 2M TOO +14 306
>Jackson: CDIMMTV L7 C.MMIT +24 287
#note missed VICT(I)M here, which I prefer, since it raises my bingo % by a bit, and that seems like by far the most important factor in this position.
>Jeremy_Hall: ADHOR K10 HOARD +31 337
>Jackson: ADEEERV D7 RAVE.E. +22 309
#note seems like this is the call, DE works well with the pool, reaching for the blanks and keeping one of the last Es. Only problem is some heavier tiles in the pool that will prevent bingoes, but RAVENER seems good for everything else, ED fitting down the C column too. NERVE and EVENER seem like worse versions
>Jeremy_Hall: APX 3L PAX +48 385
>Jackson: ?BDEEOY E5 OBEY +25 334
#note I don't think I saw BOGEYED, though I remember not wanting to bingo unless I hit an O column bingo for a ton - emptying the bag to draw 5 tiles will often not leave me with an outplay, and he can beat me with an out in two. I could draw the blank and win, but I think I can win after OBEY without drawing the blank, as long as I bingo and he doesn't.
Hard question - BOGEYED wins when I draw an out, or sometimes when I draw a good K play at H12, but even then that usually requires the blank. Even with a blank draw, if I don't have an out he can often do an out in two to win. So it's mostly just when I draw an out. OBEY wins when he doesn't bingo, doesn't have K(N)OW, and then the question is how often the blank is necessary for me to draw in that case - if he has the blank he needs to not have the K and not have a bingo for me to win. Hard to compare which scenario happens more often, 5/12 drawing the blank * the chance I draw an out with the blank, versus drawing a bingo * him not having a bingo or big K play. It could easily be BOGEYED here.
>Jeremy_Hall: DGIINR 14I RI.DING +24 409
>Jackson: ??DEIKL 15D KIndLED +100 434
>Jackson: (OW) +10 444
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