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#character-encoding UTF-8
#player1 David_Weisberg David Weisberg
#player2 Liz_Gottlin Liz Gottlin
>David_Weisberg: AEILNOU -OU +0 0
#note Sims best at about 2 points ahead of 8D LOUIE 12, and over 4 points ahead of exchanging IOU. Exchanging to just keep EN comes much further behind, and 8H UNAI 8 a little further back yet. Simulation thinks I'll bingo 53% with -OU vs 41% for -IOU, and much less for the other options. Even accounting for a more defensive human reaction, this seems to hit often enough to be worth it, and the other options have little appeal.
>Liz_Gottlin: EHNR 8G HERN +14 14
>David_Weisberg: AEILNSX 7A ALEXINS +72 72
#note Great draw, but I couldn't remember if HERN takes S, which it does. This makes K2 ALEXINS by far the best play, of course. Being unsure of the hook, I had a difficult choice between 7A ALEXINS 72 or H6 / H2 ALEXINES 66. My play sims half a point behind the H6 placement and less than half a point ahead of the H2 placement. After HERN I don't think she's as likely to have high point tiles, so if she doesn't draw some, she needs to bingo through A to score much on the triple. Still, it's obviously risky to open not just a triple (and DLS with it) but a 3x3 for 6 extra points. Since the computer knows HERNS is good, it may be slightly favoring opening another S figuring it benefits me to give myself more ways to increase my lead, but longer term I'm not sure. As the sim indicates, it's close. I8 RELAXINS 67, predictably, comes much further behind.
>Liz_Gottlin: ?AAEHPR B2 PARHE.iA +78 92
#note H8 EARTHPEA 98 is best, followed by D5 HEXAPLAR 90 (or for 86 at B2, which sims a bit behind D5). PARHELIA is the next best option.
>David_Weisberg: BILMORY A6 R.MBLY +54 126
#note Yikes, not good. I wasn't sure of this but I thought it more likely than not. It's only MARBLY. It's not even in Collins. This does "sim" half a point ahead of A7 AMBRY 49. A6 BALMY 47 is 1.5 behind AMBRY, with 8A MIRI 42 less than a point behind BALMY.
>Liz_Gottlin: ?ADELOS E4 DAr.OLES +82 174
#note Another 2z2, K5 LASSOED 86, sims 3 points better, but she may not have wanted to open the Z spot. There is some value in taking away the HERNS hook though.
>David_Weisberg: BEEIIOO 4A O.OI.E +16 142
#note I missed D4 IBEX 37, which is much better. The sim prefers it by over 8 points, despite the riskier leave.
>Liz_Gottlin: ADEFGNS K2 DEFANGS +82 256
#note This is not how I wanted to find out HERNS is good.
>David_Weisberg: BCDEIKW F10 WICK +36 178
#note Another big miss with 3A BAWK 46 coming out far ahead. This is one I'm not sure I've seen played. I might have even noticed it in that spot but couldn't be 100%.
>Liz_Gottlin: EITY C9 YETI +23 279
>David_Weisberg: BCDDEGI J1 GIBED +28 206
#note A difficult turn. 3A GAB 23 sims half a point ahead. The computer thinks it bingos 17% next turn vs. 6% for GIBED. I hated blocking all the lanes GIBED blocks, but I felt I needed the points and it does open a high-scoring lane on the triple with -ING words, which might be annoying for her to block.
>Liz_Gottlin: OOOOO -OOOOO +0 279
#note Unknown rack
>David_Weisberg: CDEFINZ D12 FEZ +40 246
#note Quackle likes the odd looking play of L3 EF 33. It probably thinks I can do better by taking 33 now and often hitting DOZING, ZONING, OOZING, etc.I thought I'd more likely need to bingo to win this, so I wanted to preserve row A. FIZ vs. FEZ at D12 I mulled for awhile, since E helps more for other bingo lines like column I and row 14, but the I can give me 80 point bingos on row A. FIZ sims 3 points behind EF, and FEZ sims another 1.5 behind. Perhaps I overestimated how much I'd need to bingo to come back, but I don't think FEZ was a bad choice either.
>Liz_Gottlin: INV C1 VIN. +22 301
>David_Weisberg: CINSTVW F2 VI.W +23 269
>Liz_Gottlin: ELO 9G OLE +17 318
>David_Weisberg: ACDNPST D3 D.P +18 287
#note Sims best, but tied with 2I DIDACT. Despite her playing DIDACT in round 4 of this tournament, I didn't see it here and it might have been a great play since I had the last S. The sim thinks DIP bingos 34% vs. 22% for DIDACT, though. She opened a new line on row 10 but I expect that will get blocked soon. Keeping PNS, though, I need to draw just the right combinations to bingo. For what it's worth, the sim thinks DIP wins about 1% more.
>Liz_Gottlin: AJ 1H JA. +33 351
>David_Weisberg: AACNSTU 3J ..AU +12 299
#note 14B CUZ 28 seems obvious, but after her having to dump the J and not block row 10, I thought I'd take the opportunity to create a new bingo line. As expected though, the computer doesn't like it at all, with it coming 15 behind CUZ. 3J BEAUT also sims a couple points ahead of BEAU, probably because of all the unseen T's. I was correct that BEAU bingos most often at least, at 42% compared to 38% for BEAUT and 33% for CUZ. Though the fewer points puts me in more danger of being outrun even after a bingo, I'm not entirely convinced that BEAU or BEAUT isn't better, since Quackle may still be going more for equity plays, like through the Z, and might block row 10 less often than a human.
>Liz_Gottlin: EINORTT 13F .NOTTIER +78 429
>David_Weisberg: AACNQST N1 QAT +31 330
>Liz_Gottlin: GM 2M M.G +10 439
>David_Weisberg: ACNOSTU 10I CONATUS +68 398
#note The sim thinks I win 0.25% with 14B CUZ 28, but I still don't see how.
>Liz_Gottlin: EIOORTU O8 OU.TER +21 460
#note O4 RIOTOUS 24
>David_Weisberg: RU H13 .UR +9 407
>David_Weisberg: (IO) +4 411
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