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#character-encoding UTF-8
#player1 David_Weisberg David Weisberg
#player2 Liz_Gottlin Liz Gottlin
>David_Weisberg: ABEIIIY -BEIIIYA +0 0
#note Keeping E sims nearly a point better. I'm usually not much for exchanging 7 when there's something decent to keep, so this was a little uncharacteristic of me. I do think I redraw an E often, but having two isn't so bad, and when I don't redraw one, it would have been helpful to have one. I can see either side of this, but I'll count this as a slight mistake based on the sim.
>Liz_Gottlin: OOO -OOO +0 0
#note Unknown rack
>David_Weisberg: ?HMORRX 8F RHO +12 12
#note After Liz's exchange 3, I'd rather keep things a little tighter. I've drawn the blank, but it may take another turn or so before I can bingo with it if I play through. The sim favors exchanging RX by 2 over this, but I'd rather not have to worry about the X later, even if I can't get much for it for now. About a point behind exchanging RX is 8G RHO, which seems to be for the purpose of setting up my X, but Liz will figure out I'm up to something. Exchange HRX sims about evenly with 8G RHO, with exchanging MRX half a point behind my play.
Simulation can't take her exchange into account, but the only advantage to exchanging again for me might be that I'd likelier to hit a 2x2 or a bingo to or from the triple if I let her use the star. When she doesn't bingo or score a lot though, she may play short or even exchange again. Given I have the blank, it seems better to take the initiative and get the game moving, but with the exchanges bingoing 70-71% for exchanging MRX or RX, and 78% for HRX, there's clearly a lot of merit to exchanging. If my play was a mistake, it's hopefully a minor one.
>Liz_Gottlin: EI F8 .EI +5 5
>David_Weisberg: ?BCMNRX H7 C.MB +10 22
#note Another weird draw, and no great options. The computer likes 10E MINX, using the X for a mere 13 but keeping a relatively flexible leave. It often forces Liz to open up or leave bingo lines for me, and it bingos 43%. Given how unpromising this board has already become for the X, it might not be a bad idea to just shed it in a way that makes it hard to reuse. H6 BRONC 9 sims 4.5 behind this, followed by exchanging BMNX another 2.5 behind. My play sims over 7.5 behind MINX, so it looks like a clear mistake, since I'll likely need to use another turn to play the X, and maybe not for much, before I can bingo.
>Liz_Gottlin: EGI 11G GIE +15 20
>David_Weisberg: ?AIJNRX J9 JINX +25 47
#note This got ugly fast.
>Liz_Gottlin: IQ E10 QI +33 53
>David_Weisberg: ?AAEGRV 9J .AVA +15 62
#note The sim likes D11 AGAVE by 8 points over this, but I'm rejecting that out of hand, as there's no way Liz doesn't block the 3x3. I hadn't considered D11 AVA, which sims 6.5 ahead of JAVA, but it seems rather timid considering it doesn't hook and I have EGR?. However, the sim thinks opp. averages 7 points less next turn after AVA, and I actually average 4.5 more next turn after AVA, including bingoing 67% compared to 63% for JAVA. Perhaps she's likely to have an S by now, but it seems hard to use the JAVAS hook without giving a lot back. 9J JAG also sims over 3 points ahead of JAVA. It averages 10 more next turn for me over JAVA, and nearly 75% bingos, though the computer thinks Liz's average turn from it is about the same as JAVA. If she has an A she could score well on the triple, but otherwise she's limited unless she has the last G or an S. I don't quite understand AVA, but I can see why JAG might be better.
>Liz_Gottlin: AGY 8M YAG +26 79
>David_Weisberg: ?ABEEGR O5 BEG.AREd +61 123
#note Much better than at O6 for 62.
>Liz_Gottlin: ERS 12C RES +18 97
>David_Weisberg: EELNOPU C11 U.P +10 133
#note I saw C8 PLEURON 20 but couldn't remember if it was good, though I correctly remembered that if it was good, it didn't take S, an odd thing to know for a possibly phony word. Liz's last play told me that I needed to block the B column and minimize bingos, which was the purpose of my play, though if I was sure I've PLEURON I'd have played it. She told me later URP did block some bingos, but I'm not sure what her rack was so I don't know if she could have bingoed from PLEURON. The sim hates my play, and even with inference I'd say PLEURON is much better, but URP becomes a little more justifiable if I assume she has strong bingo tiles.
>Liz_Gottlin: DI K12 ID +12 109
>David_Weisberg: EEELLNO 13K .OLE +10 143
#note Quackle likes N10 ENOL by 4 after this, but I know she has S at this point, so I wanted to do more to restrict the IDS hook since she already has URPS. DELE sims half a point better, but with 6 O's unseen, I was fine with keeping 2 E's instead.
>Liz_Gottlin: AE 7G A.E +13 122
>David_Weisberg: AEELNOT 6B ETALON +16 159
#note I'm likely to get bingoed on very soon now, so I was trying to dive for the other blank while blocking a 7s line. This may have been reckless in a way, but it's hard to score on this board with one-pointers anyway. N2 TOLAN sims about a point ahead. I think I considered it, but it makes it even easier for her to bingo and is more at risk of excess vowel draws. I also figured if she bingos soon, I should turn over more for an extra shot at the blank. It may be that if she's going to bingo, she's going to bingo, and I should grab a few extra points, but it's close, as the sim suggests.
On another note, I saw H7 COMBINATE# 48 but decided against risking it. I had no idea if it was valid, let alone that it was only valid in Collins, but it seemed plausible, and would put a lot of pressure on Liz. She might have intuited that I was guessing though, and challenged it off. I had been eyeing this spot for extensions but this was the only time I was close to one. Notably along with COMBINERS and COMBINING, COMBINEDS is valid.
>Liz_Gottlin: HS L12 S.H +32 154
>David_Weisberg: ?EINOOT 14B IsOTONE +71 230
#note Embarrassingly, I couldn't remember if SOH takes an S, as SOH and SHO were added during my hiatus. It's SHO that doesn't. It's certain that Liz still has another S when she plays this, but to me, it could have just been for points and she was planning to use the other S elsewhere. Because of this, I passed up 15F TOONIES 74, leaving the scary openings from ISOTONE. Despite the mere 3 point score difference, TOONIES sims 13 points ahead of ISOTONE. Even J1 TOONIES 65 still sims 2 points ahead of ISOTONE. A potentially deadly mistake, though if I don't get burned I'm still in a favorable position.
>Liz_Gottlin: EIISTTV D2 VITI.TES +74 228
>David_Weisberg: AINNRUY 15F RUNNY +34 264
#note This sims best, but I hadn't noticed UNARY, which is less than a point behind. The pool is getting consonant heavy, though, and the A could be useful for hooking the B in BEGGARED. 15E INURN 27, which keeps AY for this purpose, sims about 2 behind RUNNY.
>Liz_Gottlin: ACDDT 3C D.DACT +26 254
>David_Weisberg: AAINOWZ 6I AZO +34 298
#note This seemed obvious since it blocks the J column, sets up my N, and leaves AW for plays on the N column. The computer overwhelmingly prefers N4 NAW 31, by almost 14 over AZO. This must be because of the plays with Z I could draw to play through T in DIDACT, like DITZ, RITZ, MATZO, FUTZ, LUTZ, PUTZ, etc. Liz won't have much to play through the T with this pool, and NAW may make it more tempting to overlap on the M column. If this backfires and she blocks the T, I still have AZO, though she may then be creating a new bingo line. Bingos might be scarce with this pool though. NAW is a somewhat risky but very clever play and I can see why it performs as it does. I might have gotten low on time by this turn, but if I had some to spare it would have been worth looking for Z setups like this.
>Liz_Gottlin: KLSU 15L SULK +35 289
>David_Weisberg: AILNOWW 5K WOW +28 326
#note Sims best by about 2 over N4 WAW. I thought WAW invited easy overlaps, and WOW allowed 2B NIVAL 30 next turn.
>Liz_Gottlin: FMU 8A FUM. +27 316
>David_Weisberg: AEFILNR L2 FEL.N +29 355
#note I got flustered here with very little time left, and didn't consider keeping my F or I might have seen 2B LIVEN, which sets up 1A FAR 24 or 1F ARF 21. FELON still wins though.
>Liz_Gottlin: DEOPRT H1 OP.ED +27 343
#note 2A PROVED 45, though it still falls short. Not blocking this was a big swing in spread, though, if it were played.
>David_Weisberg: AIR 2L .AIR +14 369
>David_Weisberg: (RT) +4 373
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