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#character-encoding UTF-8
#player1 Jon_Shreve Jon Shreve
#player2 Jackson Jackson
>Jon_Shreve: ?EEGLTT 8D GaLETTE +68 68
>Jackson: ELOOSSY D8 .OOLY +18 18
#note I need to win 3 in a row here to win. I figured GOOSY might be preferred by the sim but keeping the extra S a bit more longterm + not giving information easily make up any raw difference in valuation. I thought SOOEY took an S, it doesnt, which made the decision quite harder. GOOLY wins a sim anyways by a point over GOOSY and 3-4 over SOOEY
>Jon_Shreve: AAACENU 11D .ACUNE +16 84
>Jackson: EKLNSSX G7 K.X +27 45
>Jon_Shreve: AAIQUVW 10I AQUA +35 119
>Jackson: EEGLNSS M10 ENGS +24 69
#note the E really helps my bingo % here, so this averages a lot more than LEGES. LEGES also gives back more cause of the L12 overlap. ENGS sims best
>Jon_Shreve: ACEEIVW J6 VE. +14 133
#note cool play to really go hard on defense - while Q thinks this is too big a sacrifice now, even with ELS implied (still prefers NAEVI), VEE can start moving towards a very closed board longterm, and if I don't hit immediately that could really favour Jon
>Jackson: EILNORS 13G IRONLE.S +60 129
>Jon_Shreve: AACEITW H13 .AW +18 151
>Jackson: ?DIOPWZ 11K PW. +29 158
#note feeling great here, WUZ is standard at first, but PWN is way better, 7 up in the sim, this board is not great for bingoing but the Z is not bad with ZOO available
>Jon_Shreve: ACDEIIT 12L E.AD +32 183
>Jackson: ?ADIOYZ 10B ZO. +32 190
#note AZO simply doesnt bingo nearly enough to justify, it never really crossed my mind.
>Jon_Shreve: CIIRSTV O8 VIRI. +27 210
>Jackson: ?ADGIRY B10 .AIDY +36 226
#note I saw RIDGEWAY but wasn't sure of it - it's about 6 better in a sim, perhaps even more than that in reality, cause the board can be so shut off this 46 point lead will be relatively solid. If I was more sure of RIDGEWAY I woulda played it
>Jon_Shreve: ABCISTT A12 TABS +34 244
>Jackson: ?AEGNPR 9C P. +14 240
#note Of course this is gonna kill a sim, cause it doesn't have Jon blocking the W, but even though he blocks sometimes, it doesn't make PO so much worse, cause I can force a low scoring block, or still bingo when he decides not to.
>Jon_Shreve: CHIOTT 14N HI +22 266
>Jackson: ?AEGNOR F1 GERANiO. +66 306
#note I could do ROLE here, or OE or NO with ADO. I don't mind those lines to really go for the squeaked out win with the ?, or try and hit a bingo through the W. His rack could easily be pretty good right now, and in some way this felt like throwing away the value of the blank, letting him bingo back a solid 20-30% of the time. But at the same time, even after ROLE or NO the game is not a sure win, the blank is not so useful on this tight board, he could easily luck into a quick scoring play and then defend his lead. The last consideration was that I was getting low on time, and I was a bit less psyched about entering a tense closed board match with less time, GERANIOL can lead to some easier decisions.
>Jon_Shreve: CEMORTT 1F .ORM +21 287
>Jackson: ABEEFIU E4 FUB +28 334
#note BEAU could easily be better here, but anyone who knows me knows there is no limit to my love for hoarding vowels in late game low vowel pools. The value of AEEI is not realized in a short sim; the case A firstly will come in handy for scoring, the A is a great scoring vowel, and plus the vowels will prevent a lot of disaster scenarios. For Jon to bingo, he will require an extra vowel a lot of the time, playing with the V or starting at 2I, which means I should expect more consonants. If I draw vowels into AEEI, that is really not the end of the world, except in the edge case where I draw vowels and he still manages to bingo, but there are downsides to BEAU as well.
>Jon_Shreve: DEN C13 DEN +26 313
>Jackson: AEEHIJL 2I AJEE +31 365
#note Tough turn here. AJEE raises his bingo % in the end, despite taking away the S hook. The E is useful with the pool that's light on Es. The idea with AJEE is to leave 7 in the bag to try and outrun bingoes, and if he doesn't bingo, just coast to a win - if he doesn't bingo, if he sets up another spot elsewhere, I can often outrun with 1L plays, and I typically outrun his 1L plays like FUCI here cause I will have tempo. AJEE is far from a sure win, I think I still lose more often to bingoes than not, but if the bingo isn't particularly heavy hitting and I draw a balanced rack, I will be able to win with an out in two. AJI might be a bit safer immediately, but it does way worse when I do get bingoed on, and after DEN I was a bit more worried about his range
>Jon_Shreve: CEIIOTT 1L OTIC +24 337
>Jackson: FHILORU 4C OF.. +20 385
#note Low on time here and had to go with my gut, which is often wrong. This is a case where it is wrong - he has MISWRITE downstairs and a few bingoes upstairs, INVITERS DIVINERS DIVINEST, and I thought possibly something through FA. OFFA was in hopes to outrun one of these, and while I can tie in a couple cases (playing HUM atop DIVINEST with an R draw from Jon), I can't actually win, so it is just too few points to actually be good. I should be blocking the V here and just accepting I lose to MISWRITE, cause I lose to MISWRITE no matter what. The only winning play that wins in all cases but MISWRITE seems to be VIOL, which empties the bag and outruns all the time. LU(V) might look good at first, but it would allow Jon to fish from a plethora of racks with (E)D K2 to set up MISTIER or MISWRITE for the win.
>Jon_Shreve: DEIISTT 3A TIDE +21 358
>Jackson: HILMNRU 3H HM +20 405
#note RUTH of course, just getting the job done
>Jon_Shreve: IRST 3L STIR +11 369
>Jon_Shreve: (ILRNU) +10 379
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