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#character-encoding UTF-8
#player1 Lisa_Perry Lisa Perry
#player2 David_Weisberg David Weisberg
>Lisa_Perry: ?CERSUZ H7 CUZ +28 28
>David_Weisberg: AAEISTT I8 SATIATE +73 73
#note Sims pretty much exactly evenly with I9 AETATIS, with a 0.2 point edge for SATIATE suggesting, oddly enough, that AETATIS is positionally better. SATIATE is more vulnerable to huge Z plays, as well as setting up an X bomb with any vowel (AETATIS only does so for the I unless she has something like XENON, and then one just as well might play XENONS for a lot more). If she has a good rack I'm probably getting hit hard either way though.
>Lisa_Perry: ?EELORS 15C ELOpERS +79 107
#note Lots of options but 79 is the best score possible. 15I SOLERET sims best, with 15D LEPROSE, 15G RESOLED, and 15G ROSELLE about half a point behind. ELOPERS comes out about a point behind SOLERET. Other than restricting the X spot to OXO, it seems more open in that it exposes the R on the M column, as well as potentially high-scoring plays on the N column due to the TLS. I might prefer LEPROSE, which doesn't expose the R, doesn't take hooks, and restricts X plays to AXE or NIXE. ROSELLE takes an S and opens a new bingo line and TLS spot on row 14, so I don't like it as much. Other than the X, ELOPERS has defensive merit and is still a fine play.
>David_Weisberg: AEIIOTX J13 OX +52 125
#note Sure enough, I had the X. But I jumped on this far too quickly. TIX for 55 sims 6 points better.
>Lisa_Perry: EMNORST K7 MONSTER +71 178
#note She put down 12B MONSTERA 72 first. It does sim better, but only by about 1.5. Another forced bingo where it's hard to position defensively. One problem with MONSTER is the potentially lucrative spot on row 12 hooking OX. But since I just played off two tiles (even though it was for an X), it was reasonable to think I might be close to a bingo, making a 2x2 ending in S on column E more of a threat.
>David_Weisberg: AEIINRT D8 INERTIA. +68 193
#note L1 INERTIA 70 and C8 INERTIAE sim evenly, both at a point ahead of INERTIAL. INERTIA is needlessly aggressive given I only go up by 17, and INERTIAE makes the triple at row 8 more dangerous, though maybe that's the point since the board is getting pretty open. I'm still fine with INERTIAL though.
>Lisa_Perry: DEGGLOV L2 VLOGGED +89 267
>David_Weisberg: BJPRTYY 12H J.P.RY +64 257
#note I was thrilled about L12 TYPY 43 until I saw this.
>Lisa_Perry: ?AAAFL 3K A.FA +14 281
#note Lisa only wrote down AL? for her leave here.
>David_Weisberg: BCPRSTY N2 P.RTY +36 293
#note I missed 8A TYPIC 36, or the slightly inferior PYRIC for 36, though her play of ALFA made me more concerned to restrict column O. I'm not sure PARTY does that enough to justify keeping BCS, so I'd play TYPIC.
>Lisa_Perry: ?ABILUW C10 WAUL +27 308
#note The sim prefers M6 AW 28 by 6 over this. It restricts the O column to S hooks while holding the blank, while keeping a more stable leave for bingos. M7 WAB 31, a similar idea, sims 2 points behind AW. According to simulation, AW bingos 59% next turn, WAB 51%, and WAUL 41%. Without knowing this, I'd have played WAB for the extra points, though perhaps the B has some synergy with the IL combination. That said, it's perfectly understandable to want to shed both W and U, with two U's still unseen, but it should be done at M7 for 28, which sims 3 ahead of the C10 placement. WAUL at C10 still bingos 40% next turn.
>David_Weisberg: BCEEOOS E9 OBOE +31 324
>Lisa_Perry: ?BEILNN 5E BLENdIN. +90 398
#note Or ENABLING. They sim evenly.
>David_Weisberg: CDEGSUV F7 VUG +11 335
#note Winning chances have now plummeted to single digits. M11 GYVED 26 sims best, with M11 GYVE 22 about 3 points behind. I thought about GYVE but two more D's are unseen and I can't do a whole lot with the spot, especially if I'm trying to bingo soon. J4 GIVE 21 is 5 points behind, a neat idea I'm not sure I considered. It hopes to draw the Q for 45 point plays on column H like QUOIN, QUEAN, etc. but also M9 QUAYS or QUEYS for 54.
VUG sims 6 points behind GYVED. VUG of course is going for a bingo ASAP, but it only bingos 21%, with GYVED, GYVE, and GIVES still bingoing 10-11%. Taking an extra 14 points with VUGS at F7 does the same on equity as VUG, but wins somewhat less often, and only bingos 4%. The merit of GYVED and GYVE is they still allow for the 45 point Q plays, but I'm in trouble no matter what I do now. I simply have to hope she drew poorly after the bingo.
>Lisa_Perry: AEKNOOW O6 AWOKE +41 439
#note AWOKE and AWOKEN sim evenly at the top. H1 KNOWN 48 sims 2 points behind. The extra points for KNOWN are not worth keeping 3 vowels and opening bingos on rows 1, 2, and 3. I'd play AWOKE as well, as a lot of vowels remain, especially I's, and it plays off one less tile to draw the Q. Apparently these factors are worth no more than 3 points of equity, though.
>David_Weisberg: CDEFHIS G1 FICH. +16 351
#note I didn't know what to do here. Quackle thinks any of the plays I simmed win less than 2%. M7 DEFI 26 sims best by far for equity and wins, and I hadn't noticed it. 8A DEFI 24 is about 6.5 behind the M7 placement. I need a bingo no matter what, so once again I was trying to maximize my chances of one, while making things more complicated for Lisa. FICHE does 12 points worse in equity than M7 DEFI, and wins 1% compared to 2%, but I correctly saw it bingos most often, in this case at 22%, compared to 13% for DEFI at M7 and 10% for DEFI at 8A.
Notably FICHE sims evenly with G2 CHIEF 17, but this seemed only to close things off, so I ruled it out. It still bingos 18% somehow. One other option suggested, fishing with 10N FE 13, performs about the same as FICHE or CHIEF, and it bingos 17%.
>Lisa_Perry: AIIINOT 1G .OIN +21 460
#note 1E INFO sims a couple of points better, but this, FOIN, or FINO all win 98%.
>David_Weisberg: DDEHIQS 2F Q. +31 382
#note I was probably on tilt and missed O1 QI 37, which sims best. It also supposedly bingos 10% vs. 7% for the 2F placement, but I can't see her not blocking the C column.
>Lisa_Perry: ADEIIRT 3E TI. +16 476
#note Rack not recorded
>David_Weisberg: ADDEEHS 13A DE.. +5 387
#note This bingos the most at 12%, and there might be some draws where she can't block both lines, but the extra D makes it difficult. N10 HA 26 sims best. I may have been low on time and just hoping there was some possible winning draw I didn't have time to calculate until I drew it.
>Lisa_Perry: ADIIMNR A11 RA.II +21 497
#note A10 AMIDIN 30 scores most, but NADIR for 21 sims 4 points better, so there must be a better out sequence with it.
>David_Weisberg: ADEEHSU D1 HUED +30 417
>Lisa_Perry: DMN J4 D.M +12 509
>David_Weisberg: AES M12 .EAS +14 431
#note M7 SEA or SAE 15.
>David_Weisberg: (N) +2 433
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