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#character-encoding UTF-8
#player1 Niel_Gan Niel Gan
#player2 Josh_Sokol Josh Sokol
>Niel_Gan: DEILNOP 8G POL +10 10
#note Maybe POIND if playing long.
>Josh_Sokol: IIT G6 TI.I +8 8
>Niel_Gan: DEIINNY J8 YIN +17 27
#note Saw YINDIE and somehow missed the good spot for it. -4% in sim.
>Josh_Sokol: AGILNOS 6C SOLA.ING +65 73
>Niel_Gan: ADDEEIN K9 DAE +13 40
#note Sad miss, should at least play DAE for more or A(L)IENED if not bingoing. Interesting that sim diff between the two DAEs is only 1% on account of defense + better bingo chances for the 13pt one.
>Josh_Sokol: CGHRU D4 GR.UCH +30 103
>Niel_Gan: DEEFINV L8 DEVEIN +36 76
#note Should've played this faster.
>Josh_Sokol: AEITVW 13I VAW.TIE +34 137
>Niel_Gan: ?EEFSST O12 F.TE +33 109
#note Didn't feel the need to drop an S at O1 even though I'm highly likely to use it first, but that's a minor detail. Passed up the 3x3 because it looked so bad, and I guess that was distracting enough that I didn't look for other bingos beyond unplayable FESTErS (which during the game I thought played but wasn't worth the variance).
>Josh_Sokol: MNOW E9 MOWN +25 162
>Niel_Gan: ?ABESSU F10 BEAUS +32 141
#note Wasn't sure of SUbBASE and didn't see or didn't know my other bings. -8% from the best bing. 14J BES could be fun with a different pool or confident inferencing, but not a very human play here.
>Josh_Sokol: ADGRU 5H GUARD +22 184
>Niel_Gan: ?EOQRST N10 QuO.ST +79 220
>Niel_Gan: DEEILOR (challenge) +5 225
#note I think we both scored this play correctly but added it incorrectly? Off by 1
>Josh_Sokol: AEFINRS B1 SERAFIN +86 270
>Niel_Gan: DEEILOR 15H DOLERI.. +30 255
#note Should've looked harder for ERODE. This play is fine absent that option but much worse with it.
>Josh_Sokol: AENZ A2 NAZE +53 323
>Niel_Gan: BEELOTT 4J BOET +26 281
>Josh_Sokol: AJKMOU 14B JOUK. +32 355
#note N: Here Josh put down A7 OAKUM and picked it back up. I strongly suspected his last tile was X or maybe Y after JOUK(S).
>Niel_Gan: ?AELOPT A7 APOsTLE +79 360
#note Things get interesting. Knowing that Josh has A, M, and probably X or Y, the pool is actually okay for bingoing if I block with something like 15A PO. What stopped me from making that play is lack of confidence about how often I bingo in two spots, and especially how often I see/know the 8s I draw starting with S.
Notable that OAKUM would've given back APOsTLE for 98. In a totally different pool/inferencing situation, it could've been an idea to bingo in the N1 position to hail mary a post-bingo out that scores, but in this case that makes things worse given XR(A)Y and other big plays likely on Josh's rack, along with case vowel to go under J.
Sim bears out for PO on the order of 50% against AMX and 60% against AMY (vs 2-5% win for bingoing now). I think my actual win % is lower, but sim gives enough info here because I only win if I bingo and bingo plays are the equity plays. Josh likely has to choose between blocking best lane and trying to outscore, but there will be bingos in 2 spots a decent amount of the time and he'll no longer have plays under JOUK. With his actual rack he would've had to be precise to give himself a decent chance.
>Josh_Sokol: AHIMRXY 15A HAIRY +59 414
>Niel_Gan: CER 3L REC +18 378
#note Best I can do now. I think after APOsTLE something like HEY in the bag wins for me, but in the vast majority of cases I lose.
What to take from this? Don't overvalue the fear that I won't see or know bingos - a chance at those bingos is better than the certainty of a very slim chance of winning.
>Niel_Gan: (MX) +22 400
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