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#character-encoding UTF-8
#player1 JoshuaSokol Joshua Sokol
#player2 JacksonSmylie Jackson Smylie
>JoshuaSokol: CDFMOOT H7 TOMCOD +26 26
>JacksonSmylie: AAEINOY 12D NOYA.E +20 20
#note seems like AYE G7 or I7 are a bit better. Choose your side. NOYADE gives a lot back, scoring defense is OK here as it's early and Jackson isn't far behind.
>JoshuaSokol: AFGNSTX 13E FAX +48 74
>JacksonSmylie: AADFIJT 13I FAJITA +49 69
>JoshuaSokol: ?GNSTTV N12 T.V +12 86
#note thought about V(A)NG, and this mostly. L12 V(I)G is an interesting option I didn't consider. VIG lets plays with VIGA score well, T(A)V lets plays on the O column score well. Seems like they are similar plays in that regard. V(A)NG doesn't allow me to score so much but leaves me with less of a problematic leave since I'll often draw two consos that don't bingo. All plays are quite close. T(A)VS N12 interesting too to maybe try to 3x3
>JacksonSmylie: DHIIKSW 15K WHISK +64 133
>JoshuaSokol: ?AGINST O7 INGATeS +89 175
>JacksonSmylie: DEHIRST 14C DITHERS +108 241
>JoshuaSokol: BDGIRRU G5 GRUB +15 190
>JacksonSmylie: AEIORSY I8 OY +25 266
>JoshuaSokol: DEEILNR 5D LIN.ERED +90 280
#note EN(G)IRDLE might be better in a vacuum because the H1 spot is very dangerous, but not after inferring from Jackson's last play. Still, I never saw it. #questionable
>JacksonSmylie: AEIRRSU D1 RURA.ISE +70 336
>JoshuaSokol: ILPQRTW 8A WIP.R +30 310
>JacksonSmylie: AACEILU 1B AU.ICLE +27 363
#note Not sure if AULIC was missed at 11A, but this seems better anyway. Blocks huge Z plays at H1 and leaves one fewer vowel in a vowel-heavy pool.
>JoshuaSokol: ?BLOQTZ L12 Q. +22 332
#note BL(I)TZ would normally be nice, makes the game close and keeps the blank with decent Q options, but with the prevalence of vowels, I think it's better to play QI now, leave the option of BLITZ potentially for next turn, but also plan to play Z(A) a lot of the time next turn for 31 at 10N to just bingo so often. Sim likes this by 4 which means it's even better since sim doesn't expect the Z(A) fish.
>JacksonSmylie: ADEMNPV 6J MAVEN +31 394
>JoshuaSokol: ?ABLOTZ 10N Z. +31 363
#note sim reallly likes BOLA 11C and I can see why. The Z is powerful and I actually bingo 1/4 with it anyway, and those bingos should be enough to win. I might also be able to fish the Z anyway next turn and threaten to both bingo and outrun if Jackson has weak stuff. But I just don't know if Quackle is misevaluating the endgames from here. I thought if I bingo next turn I have a very good chance of winning. I could also forgo the bingo if it doesn't seem to win all that much. Not sure. Quackle says +9 for BOLA #questionable
>JacksonSmylie: DEELNOP 15A OPED +35 429
>JoshuaSokol: ?ABILOT 2H LOBTAIl +80 443
#note it could be that this isn't good enough. A glance at some endgames makes it seem like this wins less than 50% or close to it, so if there's a good fish, like BIO 13A, that might do better, since that only loses to NEOGENE, O(UT)GUN 7F if I draw EEE, and if he manages to block all bingos. Macondo would help massively here.
OK, Macondo says that I win 56% with TABOuLI, 55% with LOBTAIl, so TABOuLI is the best bingo.
I'm finding it very hard to imagine BIO 13A wins less often. E(R)ELONG will tie if I draw EEN, wins if I draw EOU, EOE, EUE, and loses to ENO, ENU, NOU
Jackson can have ERELONG with 5 different racks, and so I think that's 20 combos where ERELONG can be played that we should be looking at. And I think ERELONG can be played with 120 different racks, since there are 6 ways to have EE with EEEE unseen. Out of those combos, Jackson might play O(UT)GUN with EEGLNOU, but that would lose to higher-scoring bingos through the R of RURALISE. EEN, EEO, EEU and NOU account for 8 combos and ENO, ENU, and EOU account for 12, since there's twice as many ways to draw them given that there are two separate E's. So ERELONG beats me 8/20 times and ties 2. That puts it at 45% to win. So with 120 racks, I get 60 wins, 12 ties and 48 losses.
O(UT)GUN seems to win with 3 different draws of EEE after BIO. EEE can be in the bag when Jackson's leave is ELN, ELO, ENO, and LNO. 4 different ways to leave EEE with LNO, and 3x4 for the others, so that's 16 ways to draw EEE when Jackson has GNOU?
EUG(E)NOL M3 also wins for Jackson when I draw EEE, but if he's leaving an E that's the same rack as a rack where he'd play ERELONG, so the only racks where this is viable are EGLNOU+N or EGLNOU+O. I think there are 16 ways to have each of those racks, so there's 32 ways to have EUG(E)NOL and not leave an E. But there's overlaps there with all of the OUTGUN racks, so I'm just going to delete the OUTGUN losses and say we're up to 92 losses.
Worth mentioning that (L)EU G3 also wins if I draw EEE after BIO. And obviously that's the most likely thing to be available for Jackson.
LO(R)GNON 3B will also win when I draw EEE, but it wins when I draw EEU as well. That means LO(R)GNON is a 100% win if Jackson has it. That's another 20 draws where BIO loses.
So we have EGLNNOO, GLNNOOU and EEEGNNO as racks where BIO never wins, and EGLNNOU, EGLNOOU as racks where BIO loses 25% of the time at most? Now let's look at racks where I don't bingo. ALLNNT? bingos with (A)LLANTo(I)N, which Jackson won't block (unless ALLGNNT? are unseen and he thinks I might miss pLANG(E)NT M1 so he blocks the B column, but maybe he's most likely to play E(P)EE to block which doesn't block ALLANTOIN, or but maybe he plays EU(R)O 3B. Anyways, potentially that rack doesn't win.
With a GLU draw Jackson can play AEO(N) or NEO(N) to block GLUT(E)LiN and NUTGaLL 2H. With a GUO draw Jackson can block OUTGL(E)Am M1 and win. With a GOO draw I don't bingo at all surprisingly. With NOO Jackson can play G(R)UEL, G(R)EEN or UN(R)EEL no matter what to block all bingos. With EOO Jackson only needs to block LATE(W)OOd. With a LUN draw Jackson can't block TU(R)NhALL 3B, NUTgALL 2H and LUNAT(E)Ly simultaneously with a 2H play that extends to L2, which is unfortunate. Oh, and I also have LAN(DA)ULeT K2! As discussed previously, if I draw EOU, Jackson can still win if he has EEGLNO, but if the G, L or O are left in the bag, Jackson loses.
I did all this work but I can't math it out. Someone help please.
>JacksonSmylie: EEGLNNO 11B NOEL +24 453
>JoshuaSokol: EEOU K13 .E. +13 456
>JacksonSmylie: EGN 1M GEN +16 469
>JacksonSmylie: (EOU) +6 475
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