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#character-encoding UTF-8
#player1 David_Weisberg David Weisberg
#player2 Eric_Harshbarger Eric Harshbarger
>David_Weisberg: EEHOPSZ 8G ZEP +28 28
>Eric_Harshbarger: HJU H7 J.HU +14 14
>David_Weisberg: EHNOOSU I7 O.EN +26 54
#note I found this to be a perplexing turn. The straightforward 11E HOUSE 31 wasn't satisfactory. I simmed a lot of plays and I8 POH 20 comes out best, followed by 7H JO 15 about 3.5 behind. Oddly, I7 OPE 23, which sims nearly 5 behind POH, sims over a point ahead of my play, perhaps because of the N helping the U. HOUSE sims almst 10 points behind POH, so at least my instinct about it being a weak play was correct. Another option, I6 HOPE 27, falls in the middle, simming 5 behind POH.
>Eric_Harshbarger: ESTV J6 VEST +46 60
>David_Weisberg: DEHNOSU K9 HOUND +28 82
>Eric_Harshbarger: AFGIR 12G FARI.G +22 82
>David_Weisberg: DEFMNOS G10 DO.F +19 101
>Eric_Harshbarger: AW 6J .AW +9 91
>David_Weisberg: EEIMNSX F13 EX +30 131
#note Sims evenly with 11J XU. XU bingos 58% vs. 48% for EX, and XU gives back a few points less. I hadn't thought of XU but might have considered it since I didn't care for EX killing the DOFFS hook. Still, 30 points keeping EIMNS on this board seems fine here.
>Eric_Harshbarger: AA 5K AA +13 104
>David_Weisberg: EILMNRS L4 M..N +18 149
#note Quackle likes 4L LIMN 26 but considering he just played only two tiles, it seems overly aggressive, though it does also fork the board. An interesting suggestion is L4 NAW 12, which requies him to have a G or S, though again, it looks riskier given his last play. It sims almost 3 points behind LIMN. 4l NIM 22 splits the difference somewhat, forking the board for my S, but this has the same kind of issue as the other two plays. It sims about half a point behind NAW. My play trails the others, at over 6 behind LIMN. I think I'd play NAW here. Quackle says it bingos 62% of the time, far more than the other plays.
>Eric_Harshbarger: ACI 11D CIA. +12 116
>David_Weisberg: EGILRRS E6 GRISL.ER +65 214
>Eric_Harshbarger: IIII -IIII +0 116
#note Unknown rack
>David_Weisberg: ?ELLOTT D11 .OT +21 235
#note Sims about evenly with 8A TELOI 18, which sheds an L, but I wanted to be conservative with this lead.
>Eric_Harshbarger: NO 13K .ON +11 127
>David_Weisberg: ?EKLLTT N13 ELK +19 254
#note It seemed since he was likely fishing as well as opening the board, he wouldn't bingo through the K, nor be likely to hold high point tiles to capitalize much. But I forgot all about DONEE! According to the sim I should play M3 TEL 13, but I think he in fact bingos a lot more than the sim says, due to his last play. M7 ELK 16 sims less than a point behind it and forces most of his bingos to end in E, G, or T. I think I'd have preferred this placement of ELK, as it's hard to score much on this board without a bingo or scoring tiles, and after DON he is less likely to have the latter.
>Eric_Harshbarger: EORT 15K TRO.E +30 157
>David_Weisberg: ?AILPTT M3 TIL +13 267
#note I wasn't sure what to do here. I was still blind to the DONEE hook I created, but not much to do about it on this rack anyway. The sim likes D2 PITTA 17 best, followed by 8A LITAI 18 less than half a point behind. My play sims about 2 points behind. It's hard to truly analyze this position now due my blindness to the DONEE hook, but we should assume Eric is aware of it. I stil prefer my play given this knowledge, as it opens little new besides bingos beginning with S at N5, which usually score little, and will shut off the O column.
>Eric_Harshbarger: IQ D8 QI +44 201
>David_Weisberg: ?AABIPT 6C BA. +6 273
#note By now I had gotten far too low on time, I think, and wasn't sure exactly what to do. QI now put him within range of a bingo overtaking me, so I wanted to shut things as much as possible, but no way to do that and score anything decent.
D3 PITA sims best and in retrospect looks obvious, but I may have rushed my final decision. D4 ABA 13 is a fraction of a point behind, and D4 PIA is a point behind PITA. I didn't even think of 6E GAB 8, which, while simming 3.5 behind PITA, is still 2 points better than BAG. M7 ABA 10, which seems to restrict S-starting bingos from N5, is 6.5 behind PITA.
>Eric_Harshbarger: INS 15H INS..... +36 237
#note I was worried about this.
>David_Weisberg: ?AIIOPT C5 O.I +6 279
#note Awful play. I'm still ahead and don't need to bingo, necessarily. 14H POI sims over 8 points better. 7B OI 8, which sets up my P, sims 3 behind POI, but there's a slight danger of him still hooking, with the blank out.
>Eric_Harshbarger: AGL N2 GAL +15 252
>David_Weisberg: ?AEEIPT O4 EPIlATE +84 363
#note Missed O3 PEATIER 89, but also I missed the EGAL hook. My bingos there besides PEATIER at 1I for 82 all take D and S hooks, so he could hit back for a lot there and then bingo to DONEE or on row 2 or the B column. O3 PEATIER still sims best by a lot.
>Eric_Harshbarger: ADEENRY 1I YEARNED +91 343
>David_Weisberg: CIMOSTU 2H COM +28 391
#note I have thoroughly bungled this game, but I could still win here as long as he doesn't bingo again. By now I had just about no time left, One thing not to do would be to play a phony 3, but I did it, continuing my dreadful playing in the latter part of this game.
His only possible bingos from the pool were BURWEED, DAUBERY, OVERBUY, and OVERDUB, but I didn't have time to figure this out. Blocking row 2 made sense, and my play "sims" much better than blocking column B with B7 TIC 7. However, since COM is no good, the play is 2E CUSTOM 33, which I simply didn't see.
>Eric_Harshbarger: ?BERUVY B7 oVERBUY +67 410
#note Really rough finish, and a needlessly open line, given both BAG and OBI were big mistakes. I still was a huge favorite to win after COM, but he had one of the three racks that fit.
>Eric_Harshbarger: (DISTUW) +20 430
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