| Player 1 |
|
#character-encoding UTF-8
#player1 David_Weisberg David Weisberg
#player2 Liz_Gottlin Liz Gottlin
>David_Weisberg: ?DIMNTU 8H UNTIMeD +74 74
>Liz_Gottlin: ?EILRST K4 LaIR.EST +78 78
>David_Weisberg: ACEGNOY 6E GYNOEC.A +78 152
>Liz_Gottlin: EGILW E4 WI.GLE +22 100
>David_Weisberg: BIKRRST 10C BIRK +32 184
>Liz_Gottlin: AES 11E SAE +38 138
>David_Weisberg: ANORSTU N3 ROTUN.AS +63 247
>Liz_Gottlin: ACEJO 8A CAJO.E +48 186
>David_Weisberg: AAINOOR D3 NOO +18 265
#note I think I saw how WOORALI didn't quite play, but I didn't think of 4G OORALI 14! The sim actually thinks I should fish with 7I OAR 13, hoping I think especially to bingo through the C in CAJOLE. I do like that idea, and hadn't noticed it. Half a point behind is D2 ANOA 20, which I saw but didn't care for, as it opens up the top of the board too much. OORALI sims 3.5 behind OAR, and my play sims 4 points OAR. With OAR bingoing nearly 25% of the time and much lower bingo percentages for the other plays, there's a strong case for it, but on this board, it's hard to score much without a bingo or some scoring tiles. I probably would have gone for the straightforward OORALI, though nothing quite feels right in this position.
>Liz_Gottlin: HTU C2 HUT +22 208
>David_Weisberg: AAFHIOR B1 OAF +28 293
>Liz_Gottlin: DEO O1 DOE +14 222
>David_Weisberg: AAGHIRY A1 YA +36 329
>Liz_Gottlin: EORV M10 OVER +16 238
>David_Weisberg: AGHIMRV H1 VIRAG. +33 362
>Liz_Gottlin: ADEEILS O9 AEDILES +82 320
>David_Weisberg: BHIMRTU 12F THUMB +25 387
#note Things just got a lot more interesting. I think I took a long time and went into something of a fog. I didn't see a satisfactory way to deal with row 14 and 15 bingos, but this at least eliminated row 13. I recall my idea was just to score decently and empty out the bag more, hoping to get X or Z instead of the Q, and force her to bingo again quicker, as I don't think she can outrun me otherwise unless maybe she gets both X and Z.
In a 2-ply sim, my play is best by a very slight margin, but in a 3-ply sim, M2 MIB is about 1.5 better in equity and wins almost 1% more often. According to the sim she bingos only about 2% from this pool, which is much lower than I thought, with C starting in column A and an S ending in row 15. It seems that too often she has one of FQWXZ, and her rack after AEDILES truly is random from the pool. MIB does look better to me now, keeping the U in case of a Q draw to score big with 2F QUIRT 36 or B6 QUA / QUAD / QUAI for 32+, while still keeping a somewhat flexible leave.
>Liz_Gottlin: IQ L3 QI +26 346
#note Scored as 28
>David_Weisberg: AFINRTX L12 FAX +38 425
>Liz_Gottlin: ELZ B6 ZE.L +33 379
>David_Weisberg: EIINPRT 14J PI. +18 443
>Liz_Gottlin: DENPW 2G W.PED +13 392
#note She pointed out she could have gone out with 15G PWNED 40 if NWL2023 was in effect.
>David_Weisberg: EINRT 15F TRINE +19 462
>David_Weisberg: (N) +2 464
#note Scored as 464-394
|
