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#character-encoding UTF-8
#player1 Ryan_Fischer Ryan Fischer
#player2 David_Weisberg David Weisberg
>Ryan_Fischer: ?AEMNNT 8D MANNiTE +72 72
>David_Weisberg: AEFIOQS 9C QI +25 25
>Ryan_Fischer: BEEEILN 7E BEELINE +76 148
>David_Weisberg: AAEFOSW 6D OAF +33 58
>Ryan_Fischer: GORV K3 GROV. +18 166
>David_Weisberg: AENSTWX 4K .EWAX +46 104
>Ryan_Fischer: EILRSTT 10D LITTERS +66 232
>David_Weisberg: ?HNSTUU 11J HUT +17 121
#note I saw TUCHUNS but there was so spot. Because of what Quackle kibitzed, I simmed a lot of plays here, and the result is pretty surprising. O4 XU 9 sims best, with 5N NU 13 about 1.5 behind. According to the results I bingo 71% after XU. While I certainly don't know all the bingos available to fish for, I know a lot of them, and probably enough to make it worth it. 11J HUN is next at 2.3 behind XU, then N2 UNAU at 2.6 behind. UNAU and NU probably do well because they still bingo often while restricting X plays for Ryan (as does XU itself).
I was debating between 11J HUN 17 or 11J HUT 17. However, HUT sims 5 points behind XU. I thought HUT would make it harder to hook on the M column and thus protect the bingo line, and also keep an N for the G on row 3. The sims says I bingo 5% more often after HUN though, probably because I hook it more often myself with HUNT or my other options with the blank, though keeping a T instead of N with a U, when both have an equal number unseen, seems counterintuitive to me. With all the bingos XU allows, it's hard to argue with the play, a rather unexpected fishing opportunity.
>Ryan_Fischer: DOU O1 DOU. +36 268
>David_Weisberg: ?AFJNSU L8 JUN.A +40 161
>Ryan_Fischer: AEP 8L .APE +39 307
>David_Weisberg: ?FLLPST M6 FL.P +20 181
>Ryan_Fischer: ACH M1 CHA. +24 331
>David_Weisberg: ?BDLOST 13G BOLDeST +89 270
>Ryan_Fischer: DEG H12 D.GE +24 355
>David_Weisberg: AIIIORV 14F VI.IA +30 300
>Ryan_Fischer: GRY D3 GYR. +16 371
>David_Weisberg: AIINNOR 1G ANIONI. +30 330
#note 1H IRONIC sims slightly ahead, but by less than half a point. I need to bingo more or less immediately after this, I think, and according to the sim, I bingo nearly 7% after IRONIC, vs. a little under 4% after ANIONIC. The two R's left unseen may be a factor, along with there being no more N's unseen to duplicate after IRONIC. Having an N may also provide more synergy with the G at 3D, as well as being useful to hook DA at 15J for high scoring 6s, especially with Z like NIZAMS. Only one more A unseen could make the A valuable too. This is all a subtle difference though, as the sim result reflects.
>Ryan_Fischer: EIST 11B TIES +18 389
>David_Weisberg: ACKRRRY B11 .ARRY +16 346
#note I thought possibly he might not notice 12A ZOOM if I drew into it (if he mistracked, for example), as some fluke scenario like this seemed like by far the easiest way I could win here. I also didn't see a whole lot that looked better. The sim prefers 15J KRAY 20, and thinks I bingo 11% of the time next turn, but I think Ryan would be wise to sacrifice to block the O column, as it's hard to imagine I have many bingos on rows 3 or 4. O7 RECARRY 13, which I did not know, sets up the Z for ZEE or ZEE for 67, and might be a better bet, except it's nearly if not totally impossible that Ryan couldn't block. It's too bad I can no longer exchange or I might consider exchanging CRRRY to go for 15A KAZOOS 95!
>Ryan_Fischer: M 15A M. +21 410
>David_Weisberg: CKOORUZ A12 ZOO. +50 396
#note I nearly got my wish! Ryan told me later that he did mistrack, regarding the Z and/or the O's.
>Ryan_Fischer: DEESW 2F WEEDS +30 440
>David_Weisberg: CEKRU 4D .UCK +13 409
>Ryan_Fischer: IO N8 .OI +12 452
>Ryan_Fischer: (ER) +4 456
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