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#character-encoding UTF-8
#player1 Josh Josh
#player2 Jackson Jackson
>Josh: EEJLNST H4 JETES +40 40
#note Super close between JETES and JET. In a 2 ply sim, JETES is around 0.3 ahead. I average just over 5 more immediately after JETES, and he averages just over 10 more, but has a better average leave after JET. I usually go for JET here, though this is an edge case since ELNS is must worse than stuff like ERST, but I like keeping things tight to open when I have S in hand. JETE makes the S hook on JET slightly less potent too, so I get the choice to play JETES here. V close
>Jackson: BDEIIRR G5 REBID +26 26
#note horrible play - I remember thinking JIBER was probably a bit better but REBID would be fun to try the tighter style, since I usually go for more open boards against josh. However, this is way more than a stylistic tossup, REBID is really horrible. If he has an O, he can overlap and give me truly nothing back, and with an A or E or I he can play ending at F6 and still give back not much. Plays like REBID are good when they don't allow good parallels, or when they force reparallels to be lucrative; this is a case where its the worst of both worlds for me. JIBER is so much better, DIR works really well with the floaters I'm leaving open too. For example here, Josh scores about the same on average after JIBER and REBID, whereas I score 9 more after JIBER next turn.
>Josh: DEFLLNV F4 LEV +31 71
>Jackson: AGIIKRV F8 VIG +20 46
#note Bit too much of an adjustment - KIVA is standard here, but I didnt love throwing the A out there, and it is nice to set up VIGA for myself. Still, 9 points and only a marginally worse leave means KIVA is still worth it
>Josh: DEFHLNO E3 FEH +34 105
#note HEREOF is cool, but without T in hand doesnt look worth playing (DELN also isnt great on this board)
>Jackson: AADGIKR I7 DAK +30 76
>Josh: ACDLNNO D1 CLOD +33 138
#note maybe NOD to keel the VIGA hook and generally a way more workable leave - also doesnt give me a free C to work with. NOD sims about 4 points ahead of CLOD. I average 9 more after CLOD and Josh averages 8 more after NOD.
>Jackson: AAGIMRS 1D .IGAR +24 100
>Josh: AGIMNNT 11E TAMING +26 164
#note seems fine. NAM sims close, as does NAMING.
>Jackson: AIIMRSY 12I AIRY +19 119
>Josh: CEEHNOR 13I HE +23 187
#note could do OCHE since BEDS is still available and doesn't give much back, so Josh might be inclined towards a bit more aggression here and reach for Ss. OCHE does win a sim by a few points over HE, cause Josh ends up bingoing more than after HE, and scoring extra immediately, while my bingo % is similarly increased, just by a bit. However, longterm, HE does have some advantages in terms of keeping things closed and potentially dealing with BEDS next turn. Close call
>Jackson: AIMNOSY 12C NOISY +34 153
#note herein lies the value of HE; I might normally want to play YOOF, but given the prominence of BEDS on this board, I figured it was too likely Josh would block it and my AIMNS leave would be left with nowhere to go. NOISY sims about even with YOOF, so I am happy to play NOISY to better open space on the left and rely less on BEDS.
>Josh: BCENORZ 13A BRONC +29 216
#note BRONC and BRO(N)C sim best here, and just ORC is not too far behind. ORC best continues Josh's plan of restrictive defense. BRONC is probably the most standard in terms of keeping the gas pedals on while not being reckless (BRO(N)ZE is reckless). The problem with BRONC is what ended up happening, that it can let me fork the board through the B. Still, it is solid enough for outrunning that that is not the end of the world. BRO(N)C is a bit of a middling option, it does open BRONCO and BRONCS, so it isnt as defensive immediately, but better closes the left side of the board and keeps the Z to hit the triple if I do play with BRONCO. I think I like BRO(N)C the most here, but BRONC is very reasonable.
>Jackson: AEFLMOT A10 TOM.AL +39 192
>Josh: ENRSUUZ J5 URUS +21 237
#note YUZU wins a sim, and might be the call - on this board, there are enough marginal lanes open that Josh might want to race to the bingo, since his small lead will definitely give him an advantage in the case where we trade bingoes, but the lead isnt big enough to comfortably outrun my bingoes. URUS is nice again to keep the defense going and keep the Z for scoring power, but YUZU might just be too solid to pass up - he bingoes 51% next turn, and of course that continues onto future turns, so his bingo ends up being a question of when, not if. URUS is still a pretty solid idea, sims just over 4 behind, but I think the score is a bit too close to forgo YUZU
>Jackson: EEFIPUW K3 WIPE +28 220
>Josh: AENOOWZ L1 ZOON +55 292
#note ZONAE B6 is not crazy, takes out the easiest lane to hit, reaches for the blanks, and keeps draws like ENOW or heavy C7 POW type overlaps for outrunning. ZOON still wins a sim, but ZONAE has merit
>Jackson: EEFORSU 1J FU.EES +54 274
>Josh: AAEEEQW 3K ..WEE +22 314
#note the idea here was to restrict bingoes from the S, keep scoring pressure on, and hopefully be able to outrun B column bingoes if he draws a U, a blank, or the X and good overlaps. I think it might be tough with just a small lead like this to make that happen, since bingoes will leave 2 in the bag after WOWEE, which makes it hard to consistently outrun. The other reasonable option is to exchange down to E, which gives just less than 50% to bingo, and basically reach for the blank and try to bingo first. It is no guarantee I bingo next turn, I am somewhere between 35-45% depending on Josh's play. I think WOWEE can get josh into too many issues with the Q, either as a hindrance for outrunning, or an albatross he has to dink for small, impeding his ability to reach for the blank on future turns. That said, exchanging does make it a pretty even game, since the timing isnt so great for Josh. If we immediately trade bingoes, that means Josh empties the bag, and if I play 5 or 2 tiles, that may not be good for Josh's bingo as well - best case scenario is Josh exchanges, I play 3-4 tiles, and Josh can bingo to leave 1-2 in the bag, but I may really try to avoid that case myself. I think I would still exchange here just to win the race to the blank or blanks, which will be supremely important.
>Jackson: ??NORTT O3 .NTRepOT +71 345
#note Did not know STERNMOST or STERNPOST, which are 3 more and a bit more defensive as well. ?? were the last two tiles I drew
>Josh: AAAENOQ 2B AA. +6 320
>Jackson: ADIILPU N9 PI +14 359
#note josh was going for AQUATONE and a blunder.
>Josh: AENOQTX H13 TAX +36 356
#note OXEN ends up working out better to block
>Jackson: ADILU 14J DULIA +30 389
>Jackson: (ENOQ) +26 415
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