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#character-encoding UTF-8
#player1 David_Weisberg David Weisberg
#player2 Eric_Harshbarger Eric Harshbarger
>David_Weisberg: EEENOSY 8F EYE +12 12
>Eric_Harshbarger: AWX 9F WAX +34 34
>David_Weisberg: EFNOSTU 7E OF +14 26
>Eric_Harshbarger: ILNO D4 LINO +14 48
>David_Weisberg: ABENSTU I2 BUTANES +68 94
>Eric_Harshbarger: ACDLORT 5H C.RTLOAD +72 120
>David_Weisberg: EIJNOOY O1 JOYE. +51 145
>Eric_Harshbarger: IQ C5 QI +24 144
>David_Weisberg: IINNOTV B6 VINO +29 174
#note I had a bit of a tough time here, but VINO does sim best. B6 VIN 28 is next at over 3 points behind, and 3L VINY 20, my other main consideration, sims almost 9 behind VINO. I was apprehensive because QI could mean he was just dumping the Q, but with the U open for better Q plays, maybe he had a good rack he didn't want to break up. Of course, it may be he simply couldn't reach the DWS with it.
>Eric_Harshbarger: EGK A7 KEG +39 183
>David_Weisberg: GIINNTZ 3K ZING. +36 210
#note L4 GLITZ sims about 2.5 better. I didn't like giving him the easy triple with the Z on a board with little else going on, and the INN leave is not very good. N4 NAZI 35, keeping the stronger GINT leave, sims just 0.5 behind GLITZ. It's a little aggressive but I like it better than GLITZ. The computer says Eric averages 2 points more next turn after NAZI compared to GLITZ, but I bingo 49% next turn with NAZI compared to 17% after GLITZ. The points I'm scoring up front account for why they're so close, but if I have to open things up I'd rather make it dynamic for myself too. I still think ZINGY is a good play, scoring a lot with a decent leave and giving little back, which is why it's so close to the other two plays.The sim says I still bingo 35% after ZINGY also. At this score, it's a close call, but with all of JKQXZ gone, S hooks to NAZI don't score as much, and it's actually not all that easy to do much on column O other than a bingo, which itself would be harder to hook with the I.
>Eric_Harshbarger: ADH 7H H.AD +21 204
>David_Weisberg: ?AIINTW N5 .WAITINg +70 280
#note It took me awhile to see this after being disappointed that WAITING didn't fit. I shouldn't play Scrabble in the morning.
>Eric_Harshbarger: ?AINOPT 11G POINTmA. +68 272
>David_Weisberg: CDEFLMU 12D FUMED +35 315
#note I wasn't sure of FLUMED, which sims best. About a point behind it is 8L CUIF 36, which I considered, but I thought it more important to restrict bingos, and with this pool, the triple there didn't seem much of a threat. FUMED sims about 3.5 behind FLUMED, as one would expect. The highest scoring play, 8L FLIC, 39, sims just behind FUMED.
>Eric_Harshbarger: ADEHRST 13G HARDEST +98 370
>David_Weisberg: BCELRRV 8L CR.B +33 348
>Eric_Harshbarger: AEU 10J EAU +12 382
>David_Weisberg: ELLRSUV E11 L.LU +8 356
#note This is my cat's name (short for Luanne, from King of the Hill). I convinced myself it's the best play over setting up a few bingos with K13 EL which seem to be blocked quickly most of the time by a human, so I'd effectively just be fishing for 14A VALUERS, VELURES, LOUVRES, or SLURVES. (I didn't see VELURES and SLURVES. I was probably low on time by this point too.) Though Eric clearly has a lot of vowels after EAU, it's still not a bad bet to make. The sim actually likes my play best. I ran this as 3-ply and it shows I win about 34% after LULU, vs. 31% for EL. Another option, 3F LULU 5, also shows as winning 31% of the time, but it relies solely, I believe, on row 14 bingos with PEHS, which shouldn't be hard to block. Looking at it now, it seems pretty hard for me to bingo after E11 LULU after his likely blocking plays. The sim says I bingo 22% after it, but I think it should actually be lower. I'd probably play EL here.
>Eric_Harshbarger: MO F14 MO +20 402
>David_Weisberg: EGIRSTV E3 VIS +38 394
#note I thought about just QIS and fishing for OVERGIRT, but no way that will stay open. The sim likes D14 GI, possibly not realizing Eric is going to block my bingos from the O. If he does, and can't score much, maybe I could outrun him with a big QIS play and go out quickly if his rack is that bad. I'm sure by now I was very low on time, and it seemed safer to hope to get within striking distance with a QIS play now rather than later, but VIS only wins 14% of the time in a sim.
>Eric_Harshbarger: AEEEOPS O12 OPES +23 425
>David_Weisberg: EGIRRRT C8 GRR +14 408
>Eric_Harshbarger: AEE 13C EE. +11 436
#note This blocked 14A ITERUM 16, which wouldn't have been enough but still kind of cool.
>David_Weisberg: EIRT 2F TRI.E +11 419
#note B11 RITE or TIRE 12
>David_Weisberg: (A) +2 421
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