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#character-encoding UTF-8
#player1 David_Weisberg David Weisberg
#player2 Knox_Daniel Knox Daniel
>David_Weisberg: AEHMMPR 8D HAMPER +34 34
#note This sims half a point behind 8G HMM 20. Opening long here seems a little old-fashioned, but it's a lot of points and keeping an M is nice. It turns out I still only bingo 31% of the time after HMM, vs. 21% for HAMPER. The main merit of HMM, of course, is defense. I'm not sure how much I thought about this option. I think either is fine though.
>Knox_Daniel: IIII -IIII +0 0
#note Unknown rack
>David_Weisberg: ?CFKMRV H7 F.CK +13 47
#note What a draw! Quackle thinks any of exchanging FMV, FKMV, or FKV is better, with FMV coming out best. FKMV is 2 points behind that, and FKV almost another 2 points further back still. FECK sims about 5.5 behind exchanging FMV. I suppose I underestimated how much of a liability the V is here, especially with the M, on a board where I'm not likely to have too many open vowels. A clear mistake.
>Knox_Daniel: ADEEPRR 10C REPAR.ED +71 71
>David_Weisberg: ??GMRUV - +0 47
#note I challenged REPARKED. It seems silly to have done so in retrospect, given how common it actually is. I may have lost the previous game by not challenging a phony, so I was way overcompensating. A lot of the RE- words just sound dumb to me, but this shouldn't have been one of them. I did feel that it was less risky than usual to challenge now, given I was holding both blanks already, but this is precisely why my position ISN'T that strong. I'm only going to bingo once from them.
>Knox_Daniel: OTW 11D TOW +27 98
>David_Weisberg: ??GMRUV 7C VUM +21 68
>Knox_Daniel: AEX 12D AXE +44 142
>David_Weisberg: ??DGGNR I10 .GG +5 73
#note 12C RAXED 13 sims almost 6 points better. I must have been afraid of drawing more weird stuff and not bingoing yet again. EGG ensured that would very likely not happen. Some other plays like 6D DAG 19 sim ahead of EGG, and this sims evenly with RAXED. Maybe telling Knox I have the other blank doesn't matter that much but it doesn't sit right with me.
>Knox_Daniel: AILNOT B2 LATINO +25 167
>David_Weisberg: ??DNRTU J2 TUNDRas +73 146
#note 12A UNTAXED sims ahead of this by over 3 and is a pretty gangster move, opening the 3x3 keeping R and both blanks. It didn't occur to me, but after my EGG play, he'd might think I'm up to something and just block the spot. Given I'm doiwn almost 100 already, it's not the worst idea though, with the other triple he just opened.
>Knox_Daniel: DEFI A1 DEFI +37 204
>David_Weisberg: BGHILTZ 4G BLI.TZ +36 182
>Knox_Daniel: ANSUY 13I YUANS +37 241
>David_Weisberg: ADGHOUY 12K HOAGY +43 225
#note I agonized quite awhile over this vs 12K DOUGH 37. I held the case U with the Q unseen, so that was a factor. This was also the last D, which could be important for bingos. AY wouldn't look that bad, but on this board, the Y isn't too useful, and it will hinder me from bingoing. HOAGY sims about 4 points better. In the end, I felt it was safer to take the extra 6 points.
>Knox_Daniel: AIL 11K AIL +24 265
>David_Weisberg: BDNNOU O8 BONN. +30 255
#note I forgot to write my leave here but I know I had DU from before. Whatever my last letter was, I'm sure I chose this over BUNNY because of the Q.
>Knox_Daniel: ELOV M3 LEVO +32 297
>David_Weisberg: ADIOSUW N6 WOAD +36 291
#note This sims just 1.5 ahead of H1 WOULD 27. WOULD really gambles that I won't draw the Q, because it also blocks the big spot for QUA. Holding the IS for QIS / BLINTZES made this an easier decision.
Note: WOAD was scored as 34.
>Knox_Daniel: AQ 3I Q.A +45 342
>David_Weisberg: EIISSTU L2 TI. +26 317
#note I thought this was great for setting up a double S hook with QUAILS and BLINTZES, while scoring 26 itself. Somehow though, G12 SEI 15 is favored by about half a point in simulation. It seems very risky to me to set up the one S that remains unseen, and part with an E, even though 5 more remain unseen. I guess the idea is I will redraw an E and bingo often enough, or draw the J and perhaps the O for JOUST or something. If he doesn't have an S, the spot is indeed difficult to block, but with his lead he still could often afford to do so. I could then get TIZ next turn, but then I'm only setting up a single S. I confess I don't really understand SEI.
Another idea the sim has is 14M TUI 10, but it sims 4 points behind TIZ. I don't like it at all with this pool.
>Knox_Daniel: EEINRT O1 RETINE +27 369
>David_Weisberg: EIJOSSU 13B JUS +24 341
#note Sim thinks G12 SI is 9 better on equity and about 2% up on wins compared to JUS. G12 SO falls in between. I did think about JUICERS / JUICES but it seemed like those wouldn't survive his next play. I might have been in time trouble too. I didn't think I had much chance of winning at all with N2 JESS / JOSS blocked, but JUS keeping the O for next turn seemed like it would at least cut my losses. I don't see how any of these plays win though.
>Knox_Daniel: CEEO K1 CO..EE +27 396
#note Great overlap! I hadn't seen this possibility.
>David_Weisberg: EEIOSS 14B OS +24 365
#note Just playing B13 JO 18 is 10 better for equity, but I didn't have the time or inclination to do the calculations at this point.
>Knox_Daniel: IIR 3A ..IR +14 410
>David_Weisberg: EEIS 15A SEE +22 387
>Knox_Daniel: I G4 .I +4 414
#note Scored as 416-385
>Knox_Daniel: (I) +2 416
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