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#character-encoding UTF-8
#player1 David_Weisberg David Weisberg
#player2 Ryan_Fischer Ryan Fischer
>David_Weisberg: AFIIRSZ 8G FIZ +30 30
>Ryan_Fischer: FIY G6 IF.Y +21 21
>David_Weisberg: AILMPRS H1 PRIMAS +41 71
#note I saw LIMPAS and MILPAS but whiffed on both of them. But I forgot about the MIFFY hook. 5G MILPA 34 sims best, followed by 5E LIMPA 34 half a point behind. 5E LIMP 32 is 1.5 behind that, with 5D PRIMAL 36 almost another point further back. The plays on the H column like mine for 41 lag far behind, because of using the S.
>Ryan_Fischer: IT F6 TI +14 35
>David_Weisberg: EHLLLQT 3G Q. +21 92
#note Thought about exchanging here, but I have a small lead and this further closes a board that's already getting somewhat closed, and at least it's 21 and not 11. It sims about 6.5 better than exchanging to ET.
>Ryan_Fischer: II -II +0 35
#note Unknown rack
>David_Weisberg: EHLLLTY 5H .LLY +14 106
#note My play sims best between 5H ALLYL 16 (which this was also to set up) and 4H METHYL 28, which I missed. What the sim doesn't factor in is that Ryan just exchanged 2. This means he is extremely likely to have S or blank. ALLYL and METHYL would hook with S, and ALLY would not, so I think that might make this even a stronger play that the sim gives credit for. Ryan and I discussed this turn after the game and he thought generally I should play the extra L because of my leave, which may be generally true, but I don't believe either of us took his exchange into account. I'm not sure I was even thinking about it very much, and was just more focused on setting up the L, which he's otherwise unlikely to have himself. The setup could still get blocked a lot but preventing S hooks is wise here.
>Ryan_Fischer: BERW 4K BREW +25 60
>David_Weisberg: EHLOSTT O4 SHTETL +41 147
#note I didn't care that much for any option this turn. Quackle thinks by far I should have gone with the more straightforward 3M HOT 27. O1 HOTS 35, another more intuitive play, sims 7.5 behind HOT. O4 SLOTH 38 keeps a much better leave than my play, but I was concerned about easy overlaps that could help him narrow his deficit. That sims 8 points behind HOT. My play sims over 9.5 behind HOT. My reasoning I guess was to put on more scoring pressure and only open bingo lines that force him to give a lot back. But apparently it breaks up the rack too much to be worth it.
>Ryan_Fischer: AAN I7 A.AN +15 75
>David_Weisberg: ACMNOOT J9 MONO +16 163
#note I was a bit stumped here. No way to either score well or play defense well, and our civilization is not yet advanced enough for MOONCAT. The sim prefers F9 OM 15, which has the merit of restricting the S hook on AZAN and forcing most bingos down column E to open the 3x3. About 1.5 behind is 3L OM 18, but this could get hit back 5s or 6s in the 40 point range if he draws the right stuff. My play, which also allows a lot of overlaps, sims 5.5 behind F9 OM. I don't know what is correct here but F9 OM seems decent considering the surprisingly few options.
>Ryan_Fischer: ELRSSTU 13H LUSTRES +73 148
#note Interesting set of choices for Ryan, with RESULTS, RUSTLES, LUSTERS, LUSTRES, and ULSTERS all playing in multiple places. In this case, RESULTS, RUSTLES, and LUSTERS 13H for 73 all sim about the same.
>David_Weisberg: ACGIKOT H12 C.OG +30 193
#note I didn't notice L12 GROK 28 but it seems 3 points better than CLOG. I think I jumped on CLOG, as it looks pretty obvious. According to the sim though, I bingo 28% of the time after GROK vs 11% after CLOG, and Ryan only averages less than 3 points more on his turn after GROK, whereas I average 6.5 more on my next turn. No way to know all this precisely in the moment, but in retrospect I can see the strength of the ACIT leave on the board after GROK, especially with two floating E's, a P, an R, and possible 7s lines on rows 12 and column F. Meanwhile, the triple on column H is little threat with both F's and the Z played, and at worst he might have something like PLOW for 36. CLOG may appear to allow fewer opponent bingos next turn but after GROK, opp. bingos about 19% compared to 22% for CLOG. In this case, Ryan just bingoed and has a random rack, so a 3x3 through K is less likely. An instructive position.
>Ryan_Fischer: DIJR M3 J.RID +30 178
>David_Weisberg: AAEEIKT F9 AKEE +23 216
#note I couldn't remember if AKEE takes S, or I might have played N9 AKEES 21. It sims about half a point better. This may be because, despite AKEE blocking bingo lines better, it allows big parallel plays if Ryan has the O.
>Ryan_Fischer: HOP E9 POH +40 218
>David_Weisberg: AGITUVV 15F VU.G +9 225
#note Very poor play. It seems I missed K8 VATU 26. K8 VIGA 29 comes in just behind it, though TUV is pretty bad and there's no reason to retain a U with the Q already played. I was probably thinking he is increasingly likely to have a blank, and this blocks a bingo line, but the P at 1H is a bigger threat anyway. With the game just about tied it's also unclear if I should even start closing the board, but I felt he was likely to bingo again before I did. My play sims 14 points behind VATU. N10 VUGS 16, another reasonable choice, still sims 5 behind VATU.
>Ryan_Fischer: ?AINORU 1E UNI.OlAR +60 278
#note The only bingo
>David_Weisberg: ?AEEITV 2B EVITE +26 251
#note Now, of course, I could have bingoed through the G had I just played VUGS. The sim prefers K7 EVITE 28, which does block the L column, but what I must not have noticed is the SPAY hook! The K7 placement sims about 1.5 better. The S hook can be blocked most easily by playing on row 2, but this may open up 8s for me. He could also play from the U on column E, but after his bingo he has a random rack and may not have great tiles to do that with. Going back, I might play K7 EVITE just because it forces him to address the S hook. Surprisingly though, per the sim I bingo 25% of the time after 2B EVITE vs 11% for K7.
>Ryan_Fischer: AE 6J AE +16 294
>David_Weisberg: ?AADINW C2 .AW +18 269
#note Tunnel vision here as apparently I was again blind to the K column. K9 AWAIT 33 sims best as it closes the gap significantly and I may not need to bingo to win. It also gives me a better chance to draw the X, which could be important. The next best alternative in the sim is K10 DAWT 29, which comes out a little less than 2 behind AWAIT. VAW sims almost 12 points behind, and is considered to win only 38% vs 52% for AWAIT. The sim says I bingo much more often after VAW, at 61% vs 27% for AWAIT, but Ryan will surely do all he can to block bingos in that area.
>Ryan_Fischer: BE 4C .EB +16 310
>David_Weisberg: ?ADINOX 5D XI +35 304
#note Sims best by 2 over the next choice, N2 NOW 21 and by 3 over 14M XI 31. I don't really understand the purpose of NOW, other than it saving the X in general. 1
>Ryan_Fischer: AEGIN L8 GAINE. +18 328
>David_Weisberg: ?ADNNOO D4 ..ON +11 315
#note Sims best. There doesn't seem to be much else to consider, but N2 DOW 23 is around 1.5 behind this and is surprisingly 7.5 ahead of N2 NOW 21. There are a couple of unseen D's but it's hard to see how relevant that is. Most importantly, the sims says EXON wins 58% vs 36.5% for DOW and only 27.5% for NOW.
>Ryan_Fischer: CDO C6 DOC +13 341
#note And this would be one of those 42% losing scenarios :(
>David_Weisberg: ?ADDNOU 8A DO.s +29 344
#note The K column once again for K10 DALTON 25 for style points and same equity, but I can't stop him from going out, so neither this nor my play is enough.
>Ryan_Fischer: EERT N10 TER.E +14 355
>Ryan_Fischer: (ADNU) +10 365
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