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#character-encoding UTF-8
#player1 David_Weisberg David Weisberg
#player2 Eric_Harshbarger Eric Harshbarger
>David_Weisberg: AELPPUV 8C UPLEAP +26 26
#note I'm partial to UP- words, which led me into error here. I saw 8D PUPAL 24 but wasn't 100% on it, but I didn't much consider playing short with PUP, which wins a sim and is favored over PUPALby a tiny bit (less than half a point). Being unsure of PUPAL and discounting the strength of PUP, I went for UPLEAP, but in the wrong spot, perhaps overly concerned by the -ING extension and S hooks. At 8G it sims less than half a point behind PUPAL, but my 8C placement sims almost 2 points behind 8G.
>Eric_Harshbarger: IWZ 9G WIZ +42 42
>David_Weisberg: AEEJOSV 10F JEE +37 63
>Eric_Harshbarger: EEQXY C4 EXEQ.Y +39 81
#note Really getting told in no uncertain terms that UPLEAP was wrong
>David_Weisberg: AIOSSSV E10 AVISO +27 90
#note Thought about B9 AVISOS 39, but I was pretty afraid of all the stuff he could play to hook AY. I didn't think as much about the other triple it opens, which is less likely to be taken, but it might go some way toward evening things out for me. I thought with only one more S and the blanks unseen, I was likely to capitalize on hooking AVISO in the next turn or two.
The sim likes B9 AVISOS 39 best, followed by 11B AVISOS 34 about 2 points behind, with my play coming in 6 points behind the B9 placement. A tricky turn for risk assessment. A mistake perhaps, but I'd say an understandable one.
>Eric_Harshbarger: AEILOST 13D I.OLATES +60 141
#note He told me after that he wasn't sure if AVISO took S.
>David_Weisberg: NNORSSW 15E SWORN +33 123
#note I played this pretty quickly if I recall, figuring I could hopefully bingo soon with the case S. 15A SNOWS 45 tops the sim, followed by H12 WANS 33 at about 1.5 behind, with my play about 2.5 behind SNOWS. I really didn't want to give up the last S when behind, even if it meant opening a new 8s line ending in S. WANS looks better to me, keeping AVISOS open along with some bingo lines, though they are not great bingo lines for this leave. WANS also kills the hooks to PIE, which I thought could be very important soon, and I had R along with S. I don't know if there's a clear-cut winner here but I'm okay with my play.
>Eric_Harshbarger: BMO B4 MOB +36 177
>David_Weisberg: ACFNRRS K8 FRANC. +22 145
#note D1 CARN 28, which I hadn't considered, sims about 2.5 points ahead of FRANCS. I jumped on FRANCS too hastily. I see now that CARN would preserve the F to go under ISOLATES, keep row 11 and column K open. It's risky opening a 3x3 like that with the blanks unseen, especially given he played off only 3 tiles, but he might not have gotten those points any other way. I thought the F was more strictly a liability, not noticing enough how useful it could be with an I or O draw, and that he often would play a 5 from the F, giving me more lines for 8s. CARN looks odd but I'd give it a slight edge as the sim does.
>Eric_Harshbarger: DEIR 8K .IRED +30 207
#note He put down FRIED at first, then switched to FIRED. This would prove crucial later on.
>David_Weisberg: IKMOORS 12A KORO. +32 177
#note Don't remember if he held on this. It's one I've probably tried against the computer numerous times, and maybe gotten away with in other games. I know the anagram IROKO, and the similar KORAI, but it's KOUROI I've been thinking of all this time. Never again.
Of the valid options, J10 KI 34 sims best, followed by 12K CROOK 32 at 2.5 behind. A6 OIK 26 keeps possibly the best leave, but I should infer he's not likely to have an O for OBE after his play, or he'd have played FIORD. 11B MIKVOS 31 is notable for its obscurity but comes out far behind. KI does seem to be the play, as it scores most and holding onto the O's is unusually good with the OBE and OXO hooks (though a play on column A using an E could knock both out). It's tough to bingo quickly so I need to keep scoring.
As it happens, KOROI "sims" evenly with CROOK.
>Eric_Harshbarger: EET A12 .EET +24 231
>David_Weisberg: EGIMNSV D2 VIG +26 203
#note If he had played FRIED, I'd have MISGIVEN M7 86. The computer likes A1 GIVES best, at 7 points above my play. I was still reluctant to part with my S, but possibly should have, as 46 points comes close to tying the game and being down just a tempo with the so-so but not bad MN leave, while turning over 5 tiles toward the unseen blanks. His KEET play did seem to imply a strong rack and possibly the blank. So I though VIG gave me the best chance of bingoing before he did. I though about VIM too, as it's 4 more points and there were a few I's left to go with the GN. VIM sims just under a point ahead of VIG.
Seeing the alternate universe MISGIVEN probably had me preoccupied with bingoing, but I did feel like it was a race to the next bingo at this point.
>Eric_Harshbarger: ?DDDEIO M4 DEnD.OID +63 294
>David_Weisberg: BEMNSTU - +0 203
#note I challenged DENDROID. I figured it was probably good but it didn't look familiar. I correctly judged that my winning chances became very slim after this. If I don't challenge, B9 MUTONS 33 is favored most, followed by B10 MUONS 32 at 2 points behind. 6B BENUMB 18 is only about 2.5 behind MUTONS, and it preserves the excellent EST leave. The S hook it creates is nice, but I need to bingo. However, all of these plays win only about 5-6% in simulation.
>Eric_Harshbarger: GOTUU O8 .UGOUT +9 303
>David_Weisberg: BEMNSTU N12 NUMB +20 223
#note Winning chances have now dropped to about 2%. MUTONS sims best again, at 1.5 over my play, but we're likely just talking about equity at this point.
>Eric_Harshbarger: INY 15L IN.Y +30 333
>David_Weisberg: CEGIRST 6G CRESTI.G +66 289
>Eric_Harshbarger: AN M13 NA. +16 349
>David_Weisberg: AEHILNT 2D .IN +8 297
#note I was likely very low on time by now. I had the idea to open a second bingo line on row 1 for ALTHAEA F1 85 / 82, or draw the A and the blank for 4F FLATHEAD 72 (which latter probably doesn't win anyway, if ALTHAEA even does).
My play, as I expected, performs poorly in a sim. I just thought it gave me some longshot bingos to salvage spread. Quackle even took a long time to kibitz the moves list, with the blank in the unseen, but that also shows what a difficult position this was, especially under time pressure. Simulation shows 14A EH 10 or B12 OH 10 (they are equivalent) to be best, winning about 37.5 of the time. This must be because it fishes for 2B DIVALENT 74, 2C AVENTAIL 65 (doubtful this one wins anyway), 4F INFLATED 82, or 4F LINEATED / PANTILED 68, while blocking plays like B10 FROTH 50 or B10 ALOFT 29. It seems any winning scenario would depend on the blank not being on his rack already, or he could likely outrun me with plays like H1 FATHER 45. I found it hard to fathom he wouldn't simply find a way to block both lines anyway , but it turns out it may be harder than it looks. The equity play, J10 HA 28, still wins over 13.5% somehow, compared to under 9% for my play.
>Eric_Harshbarger: ?AAEHLT 4F fLATHEA. +74 423
#note 1E HATABLE or HEMATAL 84 score best, and ETHANAL or ALTHAEA are a few points less, but this was a hilarious way to end the game as I was fishing for the same word in that spot.
>Eric_Harshbarger: (AAFHLRT) +26 449
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