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#character-encoding UTF-8
#player1 Steve_Grob Steve Grob
#player2 Josh Josh
>Steve_Grob: ?ACEGIR 8D GRACIlE +72 72
>Josh: DEEELOX E5 OXE. +22 22
>Steve_Grob: DMU F5 DUM. +27 99
>Josh: ABDEEEL 4C DEB +26 48
#note (G)LEBAE is more thematic, but this should give a lot less back and make things more complicated
>Steve_Grob: HIMW 3A WHIM +34 133
>Josh: AEELLRS 2B EL +18 66
#note couldn't for the life of me decide between this and the more dangerous ALE in the same spot for 7 more. This seemed to leave things a little bit more difficult, not creating a clear path for a larger amount of racks. It also does slightly better on sim
>Steve_Grob: EIPT A1 PE.IT +36 169
>Josh: AEELRST 1C STEALER +79 145
>Steve_Grob: AOZ J6 ZO.A +33 202
>Josh: ALOPTVV K2 VOLVA +33 178
>Steve_Grob: EFK 10I KEF +28 230
>Josh: ANNORTW 2F WON +31 209
>Steve_Grob: QSU L6 SUQ +34 264
>Josh: AINPRTT M7 PIT +27 236
>Steve_Grob: JSY 3J J.YS +28 292
>Josh: ?ANNRST 11K ANT +16 252
#note quackle says fish the N. I am unconvinced. #questionable
>Steve_Grob: BENU 12I UNBE +24 316
>Josh: ?AEHNRS 13C NEARiSH +85 337
#note (L)EHR is a very cool idea at 4K. Quackle says it's similarly good to taking the equalizing bingo right now #questionable
>Steve_Grob: ACO 4I CO.A +31 347
>Josh: DIIITTU 12A DUIT +20 357
#note Steve overdrew, I overturned ONE, threw the precious E back.
>Steve_Grob: EFGNOO A7 GOOFE. +33 380
>Josh: ADEIIOR H13 .IR +9 366
#note wow, I just never saw OIDIA B6... I think that might be the best chance. Sixes can play on this board. I heavily considered OI 10M to hope for the L. I also considered fishing with E13 (A)I, hoping for an N, but there's only one left, since I know from the overdraw he has one. I also considered RIA N10 (but didn't spot RAI for some reason). I didn't see anything that worked with DEIO after that play, despite it setting up my case E extremely well. Then I settled on this. I draw stuff like ANEROID N9 sometimes, and I complicate matters if he elects to block the R for weak. #questionable
OIDIA loses 81.5% of the time.
This threatens a bingo 21.8% of the time. Steve can often block the R and outrun by going out next turn, and I'm only hitting the N column with ANEROID, which is 4/55 or 7.3% of the time. There are a number of plays Steve can make which block both ANEROID and REORDAIN/ORDAINER and eke it out in the endame, such as (R)ATING 15G for 8, but he'll often need an outplay or a high-scoring threat to win in those endgames. I assume that optimally speaking, OIDIA is a better choice, but also assume that practically speaking, this is a much better try. He can get outrun, even when I don't draw the Y, if he errs. If he doesn't err, I can still win since this play provides good timing. I draw the Y 10/55 (18%). When I draw the Y, he wins if he bingos. Three racks bingo for him if I draw the Y. 1/30 of the time I draw the Y, Steve bingos and wins. So I have 17,5% left to work with. Steve can often play long at N10 and threaten outs or just plain old go out next turn, which outruns my Y. I feel like drawing the Y gives me realistically a few percentage points at best to win with. Steve I think is going to block the R a lot more than optimal, which favors him and disfavors my play. I may still be threatening a bunch of 7s on column N (AGATOID, ALIENOR, etc.) but most of those threats require two specific tiles to be in the bag, since they are two tiles different from the real threats I can actually draw. If I had to guess, with optimal play, SIR wins 13%. Can't wait to find out.
>Steve_Grob: IRY 15E YIR. +7 387
>Josh: ADEILNO N10 DANIO +24 390
#note didn't realize he was going out, N10 DENIAL is best.
>Steve_Grob: AGINRT 11C RATING +20 407
>Steve_Grob: (LE) +4 411
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