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#character-encoding UTF-8
#player1 Liz_Gottlin Liz Gottlin
#player2 David_Weisberg David Weisberg
>Liz_Gottlin: OPTUY 8H POUTY +28 28
>David_Weisberg: DEIITYZ L4 DITZ. +36 36
#note I jumped on DITZY and didn't consider J7 YUTZ 36, which has a 2 point edge in a sim. Each has a weak leave, but YUTZ is much stronger defensively.
>Liz_Gottlin: AQ 6J QA. +32 60
>David_Weisberg: EEFGILY 9G GEY +26 62
#note 9G FEY 30 is favored in a sim by about 3.5. Like many I have a strong bias against the G, especially without holding IN and no good places for an -ING word. However, the sim results indicate that I bingo about 27% of the time after FEY vs. 17% for GEY. I lked keeping the F for the A in QAT, or to hook the I in DITZY. Not going to beat myself up too much for this one. There will be plenty of time for that later in this game.
>Liz_Gottlin: BCO 7G COB +29 89
>David_Weisberg: EEFIKLR M3 KEF +28 90
#note The computer likes 5K KIEF 34 by 4 points over this. It's obviously dangerous with the S hook though, and I think most would be hard-pressed to do it without holding an S. Even with an S, it seems possibly too risky to me. It also likes M2 KIEF 30 a little better, but it floats the K through the DWS and TLS for 2 more points on a closed board, so I'm not sure why. I'm going to agree to disagree on this one.
>Liz_Gottlin: ANORSTU N5 SANTOUR +67 156
#note Preferred by 2 points over 10I SANTOUR 70. No need to open the 3x3 for only 3 more points, especially when this gives her a bingo lead.
>David_Weisberg: EILOORS 12H ORIOLES +74 164
>Liz_Gottlin: OW O8 OW +26 182
>David_Weisberg: AAABNOS 11J ABA +22 186
#note Better than OBA by 5 points, I'm sure partly due to there only being one more unseen O and four more unseen A's.
>Liz_Gottlin: EIILRW 13C WILIER +22 204
>David_Weisberg: AINNORS 14B RONIN +27 213
#note RONIN seemed like a clear choice, but I hadn't noticed 10H NOR, which the computer likes by about 3 points. According to the sim, I bingo 36% of the time after NOR vs. 22% for RONIN. I suppose on this already tightening board, that could be very significant. I was mindful that neither blank had been played, but I see now that the bag looked relatively favorable for bingo draws, with tiles like K, Q, two U's, both W's and Y's, and Z already played and a balance of vowels and consonants (albeit lots of E's).
>Liz_Gottlin: JN D12 J..N +24 228
>David_Weisberg: AAADNSV 11A VANDA +31 244
>Liz_Gottlin: CHT H11 T..CH +30 258
>David_Weisberg: ADEGRSX 13K DEX +49 293
#note Beats 8 GRAVED 36 by 1.5. It's tempting to take out the triple for a good score and leave the X spot for next turn, but I thought the spot was not likely to last til next turn on this board, and it will severely limit the X's value if the spot is taken. If she does take the triple, she could open the board in a more beneficial way for me.
>Liz_Gottlin: V 9M V.. +13 271
>David_Weisberg: AEEGMRS 14H .AGE +18 311
#note I figured I could cash the S on row 15 next turn if she didn't have D or S to play there, and keep the board tight with 40 point lead. A7 GREAVE 33 comes out best in the sim by 14 points over my play, with A8 GRAVE 30 at 4 points behind it, but the sim doesn't account for the last play.
With Liz's last play of a single tile, I thought she was more likely to have a very good leave, and possibly the blank. Granted, it's a tough board to play a V on, but I still thought this looked suspicious. The H at row 15 is a huge bingo line and both blanks are still unseen. So while GREAVE or GRAVE may be generically better (even that's debatable, but they do score a lot), I think CAGE was the right call here.
>Liz_Gottlin: ?EIMNRT C4 TRaINME. +63 334
#note Sims best and slightly ahead of B5 INTERMAT 67.
>David_Weisberg: DEELMRS 8A ME.D +27 338
#note DEMERSAL was blocked, which could likely have wrapped this game up for me if she didn't bingo right back. This sims evenly with A8 DELVE and just ahead of DELVER. Setting up my S with MEND seemed like a no-brainer. I think this was correct.
>Liz_Gottlin: FOPSU E4 POUFS +28 362
>David_Weisberg: EHILRST 10B H. +26 364
#note The fateful moment. I really wanted to play 15K SHIRT 44, but it would empty the bag while keeping EL, and it was almost all vowels left. I didn't think of SHIRE or SHITE, which rid me of an E I'll surely redraw, or SHIEL, a 5 I had forgotten, which keeps the optimal RT. Then I could probably survive the glut of vowels I was likely to draw.
SHIEL sims best at about 5 equity points over my play, but more importantly at this point, it's expected to win about 72.5% of the time vs only 51% for HE. SHIRE sims a point behind SHIEL and wins 68%, with SHIRT at 4 behind and 63% wins. My version of Quackle, with NWL2020, didn't recognize SHITE, though it's in Zyzzyva and Ulu under NWL2020. It would perform about the same as SHIRE.
Meanwhile 11A VANDAL 10 sims evenly with my play on equity, and slightly edges it out in wins, perhaps because it also fishes for A1 ERETHISM 92/89, or A1 ISOTHERM 89. This would be a little too gutsy for me to try in the moment, but preserving the H could help a lot in non-bingo scenarios.
>Liz_Gottlin: ?AAGI 15K sAIGA +25 387
>David_Weisberg: EEILRST - +0 364
#note I held for awhile and let Liz draw the remaining tiles, as I didn't see a win after SAIGA. B1 STREEL 23, the only win, wins by 2 because, after tying the game at 387, it threatens 7L ZIN 13. If She plays ZEN to block and go up by 13, I play 15H HI 7 and get 8 from her EILU rack (or 1A IS 6 / 3M KI 6 to win by 1 if I somehow don't see HI.)
F1 LITERS 20 would tie. I'm not sure I calculated it as such or I may have let SAIGA go. I may have counted LITERS as 18. After LITERS, Liz is up by 3 and should block my ZEN play with her own ZEN, or ZIN, to go up by 16. Then I play C13 WOE for 8 and get 8 more from Liz's rack.
Since I didn't see what I needed to see, I challenged SAIGA, not recalling the word for sure and hoping she was mixing it up with TAIGA.
>Liz_Gottlin: EEILU D2 LEU +16 403
#note LIEU is a bit better but this still wins. She may have felt time pressured (I forget where her clock was at) or she may have wanted to make sure there wasn't a bingo through the I that she was forgetting.
>David_Weisberg: EEILRST 15A TEE.S +26 390
>Liz_Gottlin: EI A11 .IE +7 410
#note Ouch. This was the 8th and final game of a one day event. An exciting but disappointing finish for me.
>Liz_Gottlin: (ILR) +6 416
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