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#character-encoding UTF-8
#player1 Andy_Hoang Andy Hoang
#player2 David_Weisberg David Weisberg
>Andy_Hoang: AEJK 8G JAKE +30 30
>David_Weisberg: ?EMPSSV H7 V.MP +11 11
#note Sim likes K8 SEV 22 by over 10 compared to VAMP or J6 VEEP 17. I think this is one of those plays that does better against a computer than a human, as Andy will certainly infer that I have at least another S, and I'm not necessarily going to know that many of the bingos I draw to MPS? It may be hard to do much about it without an S of his own, but he will still want to interfere with the area any way he can. VEEP scores a little more than my play, and bingos 63% of the time next turn on a sim. VAMP, however, bingos a whopping 86% of the time, and again, they will more likely be bingos that I know. I believe it pays to be aggressive here.
>Andy_Hoang: BEIORU K6 OUREBI +32 62
>David_Weisberg: ?EORSST 11E cROSST.E +76 87
#note All the other bingos worth considering are 7s scoring 74. I simmed this against 11B TRIOSES, one of the few that doesn't float an S, and CROSSTIE comes out 2.5 ahead. As a bonus, I was sure of the D hook, which Andy may or may not have been sure of.
>Andy_Hoang: FILM 12L FILM +34 96
>David_Weisberg: EHINTUZ L1 ZENITH +61 148
>Andy_Hoang: AEL 1L .EAL +39 135
>David_Weisberg: ARSUVWW -UVWW +0 148
#note N10 WALRUS 34. Big miss here as I jumped to exchange the otherwise awful stuff I had. It sims about 9.5 better than my exchange.
>Andy_Hoang: EHT O12 .ETH +27 162
>David_Weisberg: AAARSTT 3K A.TA +8 156
#note Missed 3G TARTANAS 70 or 3H TARANTAS 68. If I ever knew those, I forgot them. A third anagram, TANTARAS, did not fit.
>Andy_Hoang: BEN J4 BEN +15 177
#note Scored as 16
>David_Weisberg: AIORSTW 2N WO +24 180
>Andy_Hoang: EFLNU 14J UNFEL. +22 199
>David_Weisberg: AAIORST 9G O.A +24 204
>Andy_Hoang: CNORW 15F CROWN +32 231
>David_Weisberg: ADIRSTX M11 D.R. +19 223
#note I saw M9 RADIXES 41 but talked myself out of it. I couldn't remember between RADIX and VARIX which one only pluralizes with -CES. RADICES and RADIXES are both valid, but only VARICES.
Without RADIXES, I was left to try and score and not close the board, especially row 13. It's a shame I didn't play RADIXES because with the CROSSTIE hook, it might have drawn a challenge. I'm not sure I even considered the obvious 15L AX 25.The board-killing I11 SIX 18 was something I did think about, preserving the D and S hooks for CROSSTIE and hoping to pull ahead on the tight board if Andy can't score well.
AX sims about 5 behind RADIXES, and 2 ahead of SIX. M11 SIXER 32, something I didn't see, sims about 7.5 behind RADIXES. My play sims 10 behind RADIXES.
>Andy_Hoang: DOQU 13G QUOD +29 260
>David_Weisberg: AEGISTX 2H SIXT. +30 253
#note Quackle likes setting up the X with 4H GIB 8, or 2I GITE 9. GIB wins the sim and is valued almost 13 points higher than SIXTE. GITE fares about 4.5 behind GIB. I feel like I'm missing something because the X setup with GIB simply gets blocked by plays through the G. I'd prefer GITE (which I didn't see), which forces Andy to have an A to use the triple. My play just hopes Andy has a weak rack and I also draw very well, such as a bingo on row 5.
>Andy_Hoang: EILR 1G RILE +29 289
>David_Weisberg: AACDGIS F9 CA.D +17 270
#note Not much else to do here it seems. Maybe exchanging more tiles to dive forthe blank will yield an occasional bingo, but he's likely to block row 5 if he can no matter what. CARD sims best but it's looking grim.
>Andy_Hoang: EY 4N YE +16 305
#note Pretty scary seeing this come down considering the pool
>David_Weisberg: AEGIIST 4H GI. +8 278
#note I hoped to preempt his blocking row 5 by making it so I could still bingo ending in ISE, ITE, etc. without him being able to do much to counter if he has the wrong rack. However, I think he must have a flexible leave after YE, if not also the blank, so this was unlikely. The number of plays that score anything on this board is getting comically scarce, and I can't outscore him by now without a bingo.
GIB sims best and is about 4 ahead of D12 CIG 6, which sets up the A and hopes to draw scoring tiles for the spot. I didn't consider CIG that closely but I can see its merits. The only other moves I simmed were various exchanges, which also end up a few points behind GIB.
>Andy_Hoang: AGINR O4 .ARING +21 326
#note JAKERY is no good. I didn't like
>David_Weisberg: AEIISTY 8G .....Y +24 302
#note JAKERY is no good. I didn't like it much but it was a sneaky way to possibly stay in the game, or at least salvage a bit of spread. JAKEY# is valid in Collins.
Of the valid plays, 5E YETI 17 has by far the best equity and win percentage, though I still don't see how it wins at this score, especially against a human, who is more likely to block things.
>Andy_Hoang: DP I1 ..P.D +14 340
>David_Weisberg: AEIIOST N7 OI +6 308
#note Quackle thinks this or 8N IN 2 win about 5% of the time and 3% respectively. I'm not sure how because even if I draw the blank, he can shed the V with CAVE or COVE at E11, and it's hard to see sticking him with any of AGNOU after that. At least my play apparently gave me a chance.
>Andy_Hoang: ?AEGOUV I8 ..E. +12 352
>David_Weisberg: AEINST 9F ....T. +12 320
>Andy_Hoang: ?AGOUV 5F GUi.. +8 360
>David_Weisberg: AEINS 10N IS +12 332
>Andy_Hoang: AOV 4D OVA +15 375
#note Final score recorded as 382-312, as BEN was overscored by 1 and I lost 20 points for overtime.
>Andy_Hoang: (AEN) +6 381
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