| Player 1 |
|
#character-encoding UTF-8
#player1 Josh_Sokol Josh Sokol
#player2 Jackson Jackson
>Josh_Sokol: EILNRTW H4 WINTER +26 26
#note after 2000 iterations, Quackle has WINTLE at the top at 30.8, then ex LW at 30.3, then WINTER at 29.1, then ex W at 25.8. EINRT bingoes a hair more than EILNRT in a sim, plus ofc scores better on average, draWing 2 tiles towards non-sticks.
>Jackson: GHLLTTU 5G L.GHT +18 18
>Josh_Sokol: AEILQTU F1 LIQUATE +80 106
>Jackson: AADLOTU 2A AUTOD.AL +68 86
#note seems worth it over LAUDATOR
>Josh_Sokol: ABDEGTW A1 B.WD +36 142
#note Josh was right - I thought AEGT would bingo less often then me with a random rack, but turns out it bingoes a fair bit more. i bingo 24% and he bingoes almost 32% after BAWD. WAG sims second behind bawd by about 2 points - WAG is a cool play that keeps great options on row 1 and row 8 and bingo options, but just sacrifices too much immediately. WAB actually bingoes more immediately, but the G is a worse tile for scoring and hitting 1 and 8 row plays. Basically the G is goat
>Jackson: EINNORS C2 .ERNIONS +70 156
>Josh_Sokol: AEGHORT 1D HA.TER +59 201
>Jackson: IILNOOY 8A YO.I +24 180
>Josh_Sokol: ?AGORSZ 6B Z.G +33 234
>Jackson: AEILNOP J3 AP.ELION +67 247
#note Just as I went through the wringer with SUDARIAL*, a word that has doomed at least one game in my past, I enter into a second wormhole with APHELION, remembering as well I once had a game decided by not knowing the hooks to either APHELION or PHELONIA, and once again not remember this time. I knew there was something weird about APHELION, and should have remembered that it must take an S, cause it seems like a word that shouldn't. APHELION takes the S but not PHELONIA, interestingly.
>Josh_Sokol: ?AEEORS 10E REASO.Ed +69 303
#note I think he saw L1 OVERSEA but took the 6 point sacrifice for defense. He was quite sure about APHELION not taking an S, otherwise ACEROSE is 88 here
>Jackson: EEEGOSV L1 VEGES +37 284
>Josh_Sokol: ABFKNOU I3 FA. +28 331
#note probably FOG, not sure why not
>Jackson: CDEMNOR 8J .NCOME +39 323
>Josh_Sokol: BKNOSUV 7M BUN +21 352
#note I think he missed KOMBU, which looks pretty good here. could do VUM, though that leaves the J bomb. The other idea that a sim loves along with KOMBU is GUV 3L, setting up BOSK.
>Jackson: CDFIJPR N6 J..P +31 354
>Josh_Sokol: IKOOSTV 2K V.TO +14 366
#note STOOK/APHELIONS would be pretty obvious if he knew the word. Q likes ST(R)OOK/YONIS and (d)IVOT here, cool options to reach a bit for the blank, the latter of course setting up the S, and capitalizing on these board opening plays while the bag is quite clunky - DIVOT doesnt actually let me bingo all too often, only 15%. With JUMPY a threat now, it's important to be proactive with outscoring
>Jackson: CDFIRXY M2 .IX +35 389
#note I was really way too worried about bingoes - after plays like TIX, Quackle has him around 4% to bingo in a sim. While many great tiles lurk in the pool, the 11 row really requires ERS and then you have to have avoided all the vowels to make a 7. Of course VETO felt like a play that kept consonants, and did scream of a move keeping a blank, but really that's too strong of an inference to make. I was close to playing F(R)Y to stop bingoes, since (T)IX doesn't do great if he bingoes immediately (that would empty the bag but he'd be up by too much), but FRY can lose to a path of him opening a bingo lane and me not having good blocks, plus TIX could let me outrun if he doesnt hit immediately
>Josh_Sokol: AIIKORS E9 I.K +14 380
>Jackson: ACDFRUY F9 D.ARY +18 407
#note damn, the play here is one I considered but misestimated - FUC(K). JUMPY/YA does not score enough to outrun bingoes, and so I felt I had to block. Firstly I missed D(E)AF which does a better job of blocking bingoes than DEARY - not blocking (with no range implied) gives Josh at 46% chance to bingo, playing DEARY lowers it to 41.5%, and DEAF lowers it to 35.5%. FUCK lowers it to 10%. With S implied, these numbers do jump, but FUCK is still just 16%. Still a bit hard to believe that limiting his bingoes to starting with S is that crippling to his bingo%, but it makes sense at the end of the day. FUCK is also great for outrunning since I threaten JUMPY, and also even is great for limiting his potential fishing options, since I block the A and B column preemptively. Really big oversight, especially since I considered FUCK seriously, but totally estimated wrong.
UPDATE:
FUCK seems to be the correct play still, but it's not as decisive as Quackle's numbers think. Couldn't shake the feeling that these numbers were too drastically different. It turns out that a lot of the time after FUCK, a quackle sim has josh forgoing a bingo - e.g. ADEIMR? it has him dropping the D in a sim, when bingoing easily wins in all cases. For this reason, I went through manually and found the raw bingo %s for Josh after each play:
DEAF - 90/330, 27.3%
DEARY - 118/330, 35.8%
FUCK - 78/330, 23.6%
these numbers ignore any sort of inference about rack balance or Josh keeping an S - in reality these numbers are an underestimation, since IRK so often keeps an S, and a blank is higher in his range, and vowels lower, etc. I think this indicates that DEAF is clearly wrong, since it does not out-perform FUCK in outscoring (both seem to consistently win when josh doesn't bingo), and it lowers his bingo %, plus arguably makes fishing harder, since I am preemptively blocking the A column and B column, which josh could fish for easily after DEAF - stuff like YEARLIES. DEARY is still hard to evaluate, since it prevents Josh from fishing, but at the expense of getting outrun more easily when josh doesn't bingo. It seems that FUCK is still the best play here, but not by as much as a margin as I first thought.
>Josh_Sokol: ADEIORS 10N SI +22 402
#note nice job doing the correct endgame with very little time left
>Jackson: ?CEFIMU 13B CoMF. +28 435
>Josh_Sokol: ADEOR B12 A.E +10 412
>Jackson: EIU D12 E.U +10 445
>Josh_Sokol: DOR O4 DRO.. +17 429
>Josh_Sokol: (I) +2 431
|
