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#character-encoding UTF-8
#player1 David_Spargo David Spargo
#player2 Arie_Sinke Arie Sinke
>David_Spargo: GPSY H7 GYPS +20 20
>Arie_Sinke: ACEIKMT 8D MICK. +19 19
#note This play is not particularly good. The best play and sim winner is KISMAT 10F for 24 (a word that looks unfamiliar to me), but even without that I greatly overestimated how good AET was as a leave here - several other basic looking options are better.
>David_Spargo: EGIORST 10B GORSIE.T +65 85
>Arie_Sinke: AAEEITT D7 A.I.ATE +18 37
#note This looks best.
>David_Spargo: DELP C9 P.LED +39 124
>Arie_Sinke: ?EEOTVY B12 VOE +22 59
#note This looks best. YO 11H is surprisingly viable - V tends to go better with bingo leaves than the value of the tile in a vacuum would suggest.
>David_Spargo: CDEINW C2 WINCED +33 157
>Arie_Sinke: ?EIRTUY 5A sE.URITY +74 133
#note Only bingo.
>David_Spargo: HIZ 2C .HIZ +39 196
>Arie_Sinke: AALOSUU A4 U.UAL +15 148
#note This is probably fine. Interestingly, LUAU 4F for the same score and leave sims slightly higher, suggesting that I get hit harder to the Y than through the S.
>David_Spargo: BDOO H1 BOOD. +39 235
>Arie_Sinke: ANNORST 3G S.NORANT +70 218
#note Only bingo.
>David_Spargo: AJM 2J JAM +59 294
>Arie_Sinke: ABEEENR N3 .ENEBRAE +64 282
#note Only bingo.
>David_Spargo: ILV 8L VI.L +33 327
>Arie_Sinke: AELNSWX 1K WAXEN +60 342
#note Clearly best
>David_Spargo: AENORTT L6 TE.ATRON +72 399
>Arie_Sinke: FFHLRSU L1 ...H +18 360
#note I'm in a very tough spot here. There is no fish that will allow me to draw a bingo that plays in two places. Even if I do draw something that plays in two places, plays like AE E13 basically block everything I could possibly have. I am not sure that there's any legit way for me to steal the win against optimal play. My play gives me RUFFLES 14F with a draw of E or blank, and I have SLUFFER as a backup. I thought there was a possibility that SLUFFER might be good, and I couldn't come up with anything else that gave me something that could play in two places, so I went for this particular fish.
>David_Spargo: A 6K A. +2 401
>Arie_Sinke: ?FFLRSU 15B SLUFFeR +96 456
#note David had overscored his play of JAM by 6 points, so I thought I was down by 6 more than I was. I did the math and concluded that RUFFLeS couldn't possibly win after the QAT setup, but I was wrong - I can win with an E draw by playing FE, going out to win by 3. I concluded that I was forced to play SLUFFeR, which will always win if it's good, but obviously always loses if it gets challenged off. I thought the odds of SLUFFeR being good were nonzero and my odds of winning with RUFFLeS were zero. I didn't consider FAT 6J, which will win 1/8 of the time if I draw the E. David will be able to block all my bingos but I will score enough points to outrun him in the endgame - and by a larger margin than 6. Basically it's a question of whether I think I have better odds of SLUFFeR being good or drawing the E. I went with the phoney.
>David_Spargo: DGIIOOQ J6 QI +63 464
#note I was amazed that he didn't challenged SLUFFeR. He just assumed it was good because I could have played RUFFLeS if I needed to (not realizing that I always lose after RUFFLeS with the scoring error we had agreed to.)
>Arie_Sinke: E K1 ...E +12 468
>Arie_Sinke: (DGIOO) +14 482
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