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#character-encoding UTF-8
#player1 Jeremy_Hall Jeremy Hall
#player2 Jackson Jackson
>Jeremy_Hall: AIOQRRS 8G QI +22 22
>Jackson: FGHINST H8 .NFIGHTS +101 101
>Jeremy_Hall: ACORRSW I2 CARROWS +79 101
>Jeremy_Hall: ACORRSW -- -79 22
>Jackson: AEEEILT G12 AE +12 113
#note Really tough turn here. Many plays are reasonable - LINEATE, ALINE, FEE, TINE, AE, HALITE. ALINE and FEE probably get responded to with HARROW. I did a calculation on my scoresheet to estimate the outcomes here and I liked AE the best, but I may have underestimated the difference between EEILT and AEILT, which is huge, especially on this board. FEE may be the play here, though I liked limiting his scoring a bit. After AE I expect ROW or WAR, and though the QIS lane is good, his 8s options aren't great. Play that allow HARROW like FEE, TINE, ALINE all make a more open board longer term, which I did not want. I think they are decent plays still, and TINE has some advantage of allowing closing plays with TINEA after HARROW, but overall I think AE has good prospects longterm. That said the aggression of the other plays is not bad.
The general specs of each play are:
AE-ROW: -3 net, EEILT vs. CARS, fairly closed board spatially, but QIS and S lane and E column
AE-WAR: -6 net, EEILT vs. CORS, fairly closed board spatially, but QIS and S lane and E column
HALITE-WORT: 6 net, EE vs. CARS, open board spatially plus lanes and hooks
FEE-HARROW: -18 net, AEILT vs. CS, open board spatially but works well with my leave (FEEL/FEET/S lane)
ALINE-HARROW: -7 net, EET vs. CS, open board spatially
A lot of these plays seem quite similar overall in this case, but I do tend towards a board more like AE than the other plays
>Jeremy_Hall: ACORRSW F10 ROW +15 37
>Jackson: EEIILTT 9F TI.E +25 138
>Jeremy_Hall: AAACCRS 11B CACA. +18 55
>Jackson: EEEIILT D11 .EILI +16 154
>Jeremy_Hall: AALMORS C9 AL.MO +24 79
>Jackson: ?EEEFTY D7 FEY +15 169
#note this is where I switch strategies a bit to just go for it - YETI is the standard play, but with so many smallish lanes open across the board I like just going for it within the next two turns; a bingo will basically end the game and I like banking on that here. FEY bingoes 70% immediately, and surely at least that in the situations where I don't bingo next turn, so we're talking over 90% to bingo within two turns.
>Jeremy_Hall: AAEJRSV J6 JAVA +35 114
>Jackson: ?EEEIIT 14H .IE +5 174
#note I think my position is good enough to not play EEJIT here, though Quackle loves it. It is the most aggressive, and bingoes about as much as the smaller plays since EIs are scarce in the pool. I don't hate the play, but longterm it does allow him to bingo bingo way more than after other plays. I am happy if we trade bingoes, but not if he bingoes twice after I bingo. I played TIE because I wanted to prevent 15 row bingoes, both cause they score a lot, and also cause they don't give as exposed floaters as an E column bingo.
>Jeremy_Hall: EORRRSW 15J ROWERS +41 155
>Jackson: ?EEGITU O11 TEGU. +7 181
#note Probably playing a bit too scared here - he has a basically random rack and I am not up by enough to forgo such a high scoring lane. ETU(I) looks like the play here to try and hit the O column myself. It's true that I should want to hit the O column cause trading 60-70 point bingoes at this score is not such a great situation for me. I think TIE may have been justified but this is too scared
>Jeremy_Hall: ANOPRSX K5 POX +42 197
>Jackson: ?EINOST L2 NOrITES +88 269
>Jeremy_Hall: AIKNORS M2 OK +26 223
>Jackson: ?EGORVZ N2 REV +25 294
#note I like blocking big bingoes on the N column, with the Z and ? I can score and probably bingo later.
>Jeremy_Hall: AEILNRS M6 ALINERS +84 307
>Jackson: ?GLNORZ 15A ZOR.L +42 336
>Jeremy_Hall: DEIMTUU N10 MU +23 330
>Jackson: ?AGNPTU 12J PUG. +14 350
#note I am in a good position here despite only being up 6. He is firstly very unlikely to bingo, 4% raw in a sim but really still not too much higher than 10% given a decent range, and I am not too worried about losing in an endgame given I have tempo and a blank. The question is how to deal with the situations where he does bingo. With 10 in the bag, the strat here is to leave 7 in the bag to outbingo when he bingoes. Wherever he bingoes will leave a couple decent lanes plus a bunch of floaters, so I liked my odds. The problem is that the cases he does bingo mean he probably has more vowels, and so ANT? can run into consonant trouble, but not always. Even if he has something like UNBATED I bingo out 70% of the time. The only other reasonable play here is PAC, leaving 8 in the bag, and letting me occasionally counter fish if he bingoes immediately and I don't hit. PAC also scores enough to where I can usually bingo immediately and still squeak out a win if he bingoes, and GNTU? can do well as long as I draw one vowel. Based on the numbers I sitll prefer PUGS, ANT? responds best to the pool and wins 100% of the time that I bingo. The fishing potential after PAC is also oddly bad, the lanes of SPAY and the E column and 8s lanes through his potential bingo are just close enough to often be blockable by Jeremy, so I can't fish to two entirely separate lanes on the board. Given what he had, I was less likely to bingo than normal since he had a vowel heavy rack, but a sim still puts me at 32% to bingo out after DETINUE.
>Jeremy_Hall: DEEINTU C1 DETINUE +74 404
>Jackson: ?ADDNTY 4B D.DYNAsT +74 424
>Jackson: ?ADDNTY -- -74 350
#note I go over here looking for bingoes. This was a dumb spread play cause I was 99% sure this was phony
>Jeremy_Hall: ABBDHNO B4 HAND +28 432
>Jackson: ?ADDNTY 1A DA.DY +39 389
>Jeremy_Hall: BBO K11 B.B +14 446
>Jackson: ?NT D3 aNT +20 409
#note I went over by 4:52, but only lost 40 cause of a few misscored plays on his end
>Jackson: (O) +2 411 |
