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#character-encoding UTF-8
#player1 Carl_Johnson Carl Johnson
#player2 Jackson Jackson
>Carl_Johnson: ?ADEIKO 8F OKA +14 14
>Jackson: AABEGIY 9F YAGI +25 25
>Carl_Johnson: ?DEEHII 7H HIE +14 28
>Jackson: ABENSTV 6I AB +22 47
#note could do VESTA or SAB as well here, and considered VET strongly as well. VESTA wins a sim, which is largely because it prevents 6 tile plays at 8J. I think VESTA, VET, AB are all fairly reasonable, but might lean towards the more bingo heavy options since I think his range was fairly good after HIE, so I would like to respond likewise.
>Carl_Johnson: ?ADDEHI K7 DIEHArD +80 108
>Jackson: EINSSTV 14E INVESTS +76 123
>Carl_Johnson: EEFIIRT 15H FIE +37 145
>Jackson: GOPSTWZ 10J W.OP +20 143
#note lots of mediocre options here, WHOP, GROW, GAWP, and TIZ. TIZ sims the best here, largely to block the 8J spot, and the leave is not so much worse than WHOP's leave since the O at least defends against disaster racks. Still I think the value of the Z is pretty good here with 15a open, so it's close.
>Carl_Johnson: EINRTUY M10 .UNY +18 163
>Jackson: ?DFGSTZ 8J G.FTeD +48 191
#note I was aware of his range after PUNY which made me like plays like GIFT or TIZ a bit more here, but GIFTED is way better with no range, and with reasonable ranges he could have it's close to a wash, and on this board his range is wider than average, so I think this play was fine
>Carl_Johnson: CEIIMRT O8 .IMETRIC +92 255
>Jackson: AEORSSZ 15A ZEROS +47 238
#note ZOEAS and ZEROS basically tied in the sim. ZEROS was nice to make better lanes for myself down there, not a bad thing at this score. However, I did not see ZOEAS unfortunately cause I likely woul dhave played it to keep the R for the important RAI spot, which Q does not see the full value of. I think ZEROS is slightly but clearly worse than ZOEAS (the advantage of ZEROS is that I average more next turn with the A on this board, the A being useful for overlaps scoring etc)
>Carl_Johnson: BCRRTUU 13B CURB +21 276
>Jackson: AAELLST N11 TEAL +24 262
#note not really worth doing AL now, though there are marginal lanes to hit, especially column N. pretty close
>Carl_Johnson: DOOPRTU 5E ODOUR +15 291
>Jackson: AGJLNOS N6 JO. +25 287
#note did not see SAJOU here, which is a pretty good play. Spending the case S isn''t great, but the pool is slightly vowel heavy and works pretty well with GLN. I liked JOE because the G really helps the leave here, AGLNS is quite strong and will only get stronger with more vowels over the following turns. I could do JO 4E as well to keep M and N open, and it doesn't really obstruct the 4/6 rows too much. It does let him score a bit more immediately though Close call in the sim between sajou, joe, and jo.
>Carl_Johnson: ANNOPTT O2 PANTO +17 308
>Jackson: AEEGLNS G8 ..E +7 294
#note not CEE for 3 more cause I want him to block this for small then hit the 4/6 row, which is quite good for my leave - I hit 8/21, AIMTUW, plus the R for only row 11.
>Carl_Johnson: EIINNTX 12E IN +8 316
>Jackson: AEEGLNS 4D GLEN +17 311
#note Really tough turn here. CEE is not a bad play, forcing him to block but he can't sacrifice too much to block for fears of getting outrun. I can just bingo a quarter or so of the time and win often. It also avoids the Q. ALE is a play I considerd a lot, at 4D, which forks the board, opening column C and row 3. I was worried IN might have kept a good bingo leave, and then felt that he would be favoured if we traded bingoes, so went for an outrunning play, hoping to grab some scoring tiles and win like that, just have to avoid the Q. I liked keeping the A for D12, but I could do something like EGAL 4D to be more standard, but the R hook is a bit more dangerous if I think he is holding good tiles.
>Carl_Johnson: EILNOTX 6C LEX +20 336
>Jackson: AAEERSV D11 VA. +18 329
#note This seems like the right idea, leaving 2 in the bag and giving me the best timing for the endgame. I considered AVA/AG as well to go for bingoes, which is reasonable ss well. However, looking at endgames after VAR then QI, VAR actually does quite poorly against QI if he plays it with LI. I can win with a few draws, but lose narrowly with the vast majority. If QI is on his rack, he is almos tcertainly playing that, or something better. If the Q is in the bag, I lose half the time when I draw it, and it's complicated if I leave it in the bag. Maybe something more aggressive is warranted in this case, AVA. (E)AVE is also a cool idea to force him to play with ILEX. If I realize how devastating QI/LI is, EAVE forces him to make plays with ILEX, which give me SILEX in return. Of course if he has QU I am probably dead to QU(A) plays anyway, but EAVE might be a cool idea.
>Carl_Johnson: ILNOQRT 7B QI +15 351
>Jackson: AAEEMRS 2K REMA. +18 347
#note no wins, SARAN is the best endgame. Nothing really threatens wins with fuckups, even.
>Carl_Johnson: LNORTUW 1L WOT +25 376
>Jackson: AES 13J A. +6 353
>Carl_Johnson: LNRU B11 UN.L. +14 390
>Jackson: ES 3L ES +20 373
>Jackson: (R) +2 375
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