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#character-encoding UTF-8
#player1 Eric_Goldstein Eric Goldstein
#player2 Josh Josh
>Eric_Goldstein: IIIII -IIIII +0 0
>Josh: AEKLNSY H2 ALKYNES +88 88
>Eric_Goldstein: JU 6F JU. +26 26
>Josh: FIIORTY I7 FOY +28 116
#note need to see (JUN)IORITY. Sims around even with this, and may very well get challenged at this score differential #findingsmall
>Eric_Goldstein: AGNOW J8 WAGON +24 50
>Josh: AIILORT 4H .ORAI +18 134
#note I feel like I considered TROIKA early on in this turn, but went with KORAI for defense and better leave. Quackle prefers getting rid of the first T of the game. #questionable
>Eric_Goldstein: GNV K3 V.NG +16 66
#note underscored by 2
>Josh: DIILMOT K9 MID +29 163
>Eric_Goldstein: EFZ L10 FEZ +41 107
>Josh: IILOTTT 3F TI.T +9 172
#note there are the T's. Could play M8 TIT as well #questionable
>Eric_Goldstein: BD G5 B.D +24 131
>Josh: ILOQTWX 2E QI +17 189
#note the Q isn't totally dead weight here, 3K (V)OX sims a couple better #questionable
>Eric_Goldstein: ?DEMPSU 13D DUMPErS +74 205
>Josh: ALLOTWX H12 W.AL +33 222
#note didn't know whether to cash the X or block the H12 spot. I think I chose wrong. 12C LOX sims best. #strategysmall
>Eric_Goldstein: INOR 12B IRON +16 221
>Josh: ILOOTTX 3K .OX +28 250
>Eric_Goldstein: EHOS B10 HO.SE +32 253
>Josh: EIILOTT A6 TOILET +25 275
#note this isn't going well, but I can't play scared scoring defense. A5 IOLITE is much better balance and gives back way fewer game-losing bingos. #strategysmall
>Eric_Goldstein: ?CEILRU B1 LUCIfER +76 329
>Josh: AAEGIIR 1A G.IA +18 293
>Eric_Goldstein: BEO I11 BO.E +20 349
>Josh: AEEINRV M12 AVER +25 318
#note kinda need that S
>Eric_Goldstein: AEEP 15K PE.EA +24 373
>Josh: AEEHINR M2 A. +9 327
#note This is a pretty unique situation. Often, when you have 2 threats in intersecting quadrants, they can both get blocked simultaneously. As a result of my experiences where it just doesn't work, I definitely get complacent and quickly discard ideas that create another line very close to the line that already exists. In this position, I can create a bingo threat on both D and F columns simultaneously, and not only is it impossible to block the D and F columns with a horizontal play, it is also impossible to do so via the E column. I draw a T 8/36 of the time after a one-tile fish, and if I play (TE)A 6A, I not only hit THERE(M)IN, but also NEITHER or THEREIN D3. The play of (TE)A still loses if CT is in the bag due to TUNDRAS/ZAS, and with NT in the bag due to allowing CUSTARD hooking TEA with TEAS or TEAT. It also loses if Eric has ADUNC on his rack, which plays for too much to withstand at 15A. That includes when RT, ST or TT are in the bag, which account for 5/36 additional draws. So (TE)A or (f)A win when AT, DT, or UT are in the bag, which is a 3/36. It also wins when I draw an S and Eric doesn't have ADUNC, which beats HENRIES N6 by 1. So half of the time AS, CS, DS, NS and US are in the bag. This is a total of 5.5/36.
The play I chose, A(X), can win when both THERE(M)IN and some other threat is unseen to Eric, and he can't score enough to outrun, or without giving up another winning play. If AT are unseen, A(X) can work if Eric decides to block the 1st row given INEARTH 1I being threatened. None of the plays he can make up there a) score enough to outrun THERE(M)IN or b) don't give back another bingo on the O column. S gives STEARINE, T gives THIRTEEN, D gives DETAINER. If TS are unseen, HINTERS N6 can never be outrun, since even after ADUNC, I have scored 6 more points with my A.
A(X) can also win if the S is in the bag. It appears that A(X) wins when I draw an S (4/36) and when AT are unseen, totalling 5/36.
This was a mistake, because given what was in the bag (UT), Eric will always have the ability to outrun me. I simply didn't consider that (TE)A could ever work given its proximity to the spot I was trying to obscure, F8 THERE(M)IN. And the worst part is that I *knew* UT were in the bag, because Eric had the unseen letters of AEEHINRTU written in plain sight on his scoresheet. So despite this having worked because it complicates the game, it was an absolutely stupid mistake that should have cost me the game, even despite me having complete information. Eric now knows to hide his tracking.
>Eric_Goldstein: ACDNRST 1K CARD +18 391
#note this was both playing scared and playing greedy. Eric did have sufficient time to figure this out. The simple CARDS is enough to outrun what I'm attempting to draw, but it's hard to be sure that it doesn't give anything bigger back.
>Josh: EEHINRT F8 THERE.IN +72 399
#note I put down HERE(M)IN and the 7th tile I drew and didn't look at atop the H. I let Eric know that there was a 50% chance that I drew the right tile. I flipped over the T. What a rush.
>Josh: (NSTU) +8 407
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