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#character-encoding UTF-8
#player1 TB Ted Blevins
#player2 JJB John J. Bulten
>TB: AJW 8G JAW +26 26
#note 0:45 [24:15] With two players at 4, 3, and 2 games each, prize money for first and second is still hotly contested, and the winner of this mid-tier game with a good lead can still clinch second. Both players pull an E, but when JJB pulls a second E from the bag TB pulls the blank. JJB shuffles a full ten seconds.
>JJB: DENOSUV H7 V.U +6 6
#note 1:14 [23:46] (nevus j4 30 +6.2) Though JJB's leave is +16.0, that is overcome by the points available from using the S. The goal of playing off UV is still met with nevus, voduns, and venous. Remember not to fish when the diff is very high: loveliness of opening and block ability are not the summum bonum.
>TB: Q -6 +0 26
#note 0:17 [23:58] TB passes 6, possibly holding the blank anyway or the S.
>JJB: DEINNOS J2 ONDINES +76 82
>JJB: DEINNOS -- -76 6
#note 1:44 [22:02] (son j8 19 +15.6) JJB opts to risk a phony, pluralizing the name of a stage play. Everywhere bold, but here too bold. Cashing the S is indicated, as best score without is vend/ew 15 and the leave without the E is way behind.
>TB: OW 7H .OW +16 42
#note 1:36 [22:22] KR challenges after 51 seconds. On the closed board he has only one play with either of these two tiles, but he seems to be angling for his own bingo without wanting to expose any more to opponent's prone rack.
>JJB: DEINNOS 9F NO.N +23 29
#note 1:23 [20:39] (no 6i 17 +2.1) JJB spots the points but doesn't realize that retaining an N (no 17) increases leave a lot, from DEIS +14.7 to DEINS +22.8.
>TB: BOY 10E BOY +27 69
#note 2:24 [19:58]
>JJB: ADEINSS 11E IDS +34 63
#note 1:14 [19:25] (ads 11e 34 +3.3) JJB obtains a bingo rack but no seven (we might say impromptu that san-dies gives "mech v. trog"). He gets the right spot; in static value aids 36 has the same leave value and ads 34 is even higher (eds also has synergy), but holding the I is slightly disfavored by the bag. Simulation gives the "ad" (advantage) to ads, with only about 1%-2% diff. Next bingos will be key to this game.
>TB: ?AGMORS K3 ORGASMs +78 147
#note 1:28 [18:30] Other 78-point bingos are glamors, isogram, morgans, and the more open orgasms.
>JJB: ADEFNSZ 12A FAZED +50 113
#note 2:06 [17:19] JJB recounts at 6 seconds and mourns the unavailability of fazendas (three of TB's best choices would have allowed it); yes, he drew a bingo rack alright. However, he finds the best combo, ahead of faze/biz/node 51, mazed 54, and zedas/bis 55.
>TB: AETT 13B TATE +41 188
#note 0:50 [17:40] Strong response, retaining the big lead.
>JJB: AHHINPS B11 H..H +20 133
#note 6:34 [10:45] (pash 14c 42 +6.3) JJB holds, partly to recount such a play and partly out of right, but releases soon enough. He would like hi-hats not to be hyphenated, and would like rhaphe to have one fewer letter. However, he may be signaling he has not gotten to perfect retention of the fours, because he remembers pasha but not pash 42. His play is second-best, with leave +16.9.
>TB: ABK 4I BA.K +20 208
#note 1:44 [15:56]
>JJB: ?AIINPS M3 ASPIrIN +79 212
#note 0:57 [9:48] TB has allowed a slight improvement on aspirin/eta/bides (and for the same score allows also piscina/barks and sinopia/ab). The lead gained is now only 4, one bingo each, one zero each.
>TB: ACINTU 5D TUNICA +20 228
#note 1:37 [14:19] (uh 14a 5 +.3) Unless one can score more than 20, fishing is indicated by the good rack here (with the exception of holding a second U), though sometimes the choice is narrow. With some racks, AINT is the indicated fish because of oca. Hooking bidet gives the same score and is a bit flashier.
>JJB: AIMOORT A14 OM +17 229
#note 3:49 [5:59] (moira 8k 24 +6.3) Board vision should turn up the high scorer of moira 24 with only -1.1 leave; JJB's choice is AIORT -.4. Oof/oh 11 has positive leave but not points.
>TB: EEV 6B VEE +16 244
#note 0:44 [13:35] Relatively closing, while the lead is hotly contested and TB's remaining tiles are less than optimal.
>JJB: AGIORRT D2 GOI..R +14 243
#note 2:32 [3:27] (moira 8k 24 +5.2) Again moira leads, with +.4 leave, but JJB wants better leave this time and takes +5.2 for 10 points less. He could have had AIRT +5.4 with the opener gor/aspiring 16, as opponent and bag are not signaling a bingo rack in response.
>TB: ENY 8K .E.NY +33 277
#note 0:21 [13:14] TB has spotted and seizes the thirty to lead by 34, with about 60% win odds.
>JJB: AEELRTU 2B RE.ULATE +72 315
#note 0:33 [2:54] But JJB's balancing has paid off and he can use the narrow G line to lead by 38, with around 65% win odds.
>TB: AFIT 1G FIAT +34 311
#note 1:35 [11:39]
>JJB: CDDEORR 1A COD +23 338
#note 1:21 [1:33] (redo c1 18 +1.2) Time has run low and JJB wants to guard a clutch win. He pulls not the worst rack from the bag (playing through AEO), but Q and X must be defended against. Instead he opts to block the triple, which opponent cannot use to great effect, keeping RR with another in bag. Getting a fresh start with record/bider, leaving 7 in bag, leads simulation around 68% despite opponent's risk of getting 30 back (cod and redo are about 10% behind, but cor 1a 19 is second place or close). In general one can be credited about one-third the value of the opening one creates.
>TB: IQ N2 QI +24 335
#note 1:53 [9:46] TB must double the Q despite blowback risk, trailing by only 3 with bingos and X unseen.
>JJB: DEENRRR O4 DERR. +11 349
#note 0:18 [1:15] (render 14e 19 +10.5) The three Rs! Now the openable row 14 yields render 19, which dumps better than column O and empties more of the bag. JJB has weakened his win chances but derry, redry, redeny/air 14, and render all simulate around 56%-58%, several percent ahead of alternates, with redeny leading.
>TB: OX 3F OX +40 375
#note ~0:41 [~9:05] TB takes the win chances back to about 55% for himself using the unguarded row 3. Can he defend a 26-point lead?
>JJB: EEILNRS 14E RELINES +69 418
#note 0:14 [1:01] Well, JJB pulls the bingo and it's all over now but the smoke clearing. If he had not seen this, relief 32 would still win 25 of 36 cases or 69%.
>TB: EEGLPTU H12 PL.E +27 402
#note ~1:58 [7:07]
>JJB: IL O1 LI +17 435
#note 0:26 [0:35]
>JJB: (EGTU) +10 445
#note Though TB stayed ahead or pulled ahead until 2 were left in the bag, JJB's competent enough leave choices led to a third bingo in the clutch. TB's shown tiles were optimally played except for one case of needing to fish; it's likely there were missed opportunities in the unseen tiles, but there were plenty of missed opportunities in JJB's tiles, in parallels, triples, and endgame turnover. JJB cruises into third place but is disappointingly only 32 points behind the money, which might have been made up by superior play in most any game; meanwhile Ken Rubin notches the upset against Mack Meller in Mack's own home to clinch the tourney win. Known points available: TB 0, JJB 0. Overall points available: TB .3+, JJB 56.7.
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