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#character-encoding UTF-8
#player1 JJB John J. Bulten
#player2 MEO Mark Edward Owens
>JJB: EEPTTVX 8G VEXT +28 28
#note 0:43 [24:17] JJB and MEO have squared off repeatedly in Virginia, but are both playing at Mack Meller's house in Kentucky rather than at Andy Hoang's tournament in Virginia the same Saturday. (JJB is also ambitiously scheduled to play Collins with Andy's group on Sunday.) He draws I to N to start, and opens with an easy decision.
>MEO: AAHW 7H WAAH +28 28
#note 0:54 [24:06] MEO responds quickly for a tie.
>JJB: ?DEPTTW 6G WEPT +34 62
#note 1:28 [22:49] (wept 6j 36 +2) JJB doesn't want to take the opening risk of wept 6j 36 and calculates a more closing move that sacrifices only 2, thinking it best to force opponent to open. Quackle agrees by about 5%, and places the lower-scoring move at the top of simulations. Tempting is tweep 45.
>MEO: ABCEI 5C CEIBA +23 51
#note 1:04 [23:02] Opening broadly.
>JJB: ?DENOTZ 4G DOZENTh +91 153
#note 0:54 [21:55] JJB seizes the chance, finding the only Z bingo to lead by 102.
>MEO: CIQ K2 CI.Q +30 81
#note 0:36 [22:26]
>JJB: AEGINOR C3 IN.OG +20 173
#note 5:17 [16:38] (oe d4 4 +7.7) Drawing another bingo rack, JJB goes for the points rather than many fishes that Quackle prefers statically; ti/qi 13 even ranks better. Simulation wobbles, sometimes favoring incog 20 or a nonuple opener like coign 2k, sometimes favoring oe/oi 4, so it appears it is the player's option rather than a clearcut decision.
>MEO: GJU B1 JUG +25 106
#note 0:54 [21:32] Another able power tile, with potential for further use.
>JJB: AEIRSTV 4A VA. +22 195
#note 4:23 [12:15] (vastier n2 91 +40.3) JJB had been idly asking himself about dozenths but now the question is in earnest and he convinces himself he should try to win without guessing, so he bypasses a 91-point play and makes the second-best choice.
>MEO: EIPR A4 .IPER +30 136
#note 0:51 [20:41] (peer d3 34 +1.9) Continuing with New York speed, MEO knocks out another 30. However, d4 remains a big potential scorer.
>JJB: EIRRSTU 2K .URR +12 207
#note 2:46 [9:29] (rustier n2 85 +56.3) JJB sees another bingo and makes the same decision as before, sacrificing even more points this time. He acts phobic about both Rs, guessing the leave difference to be less than 7, but in reality EIRST rates +33.7 with EIST only +16.7, making cur/cru 5 preferable. Quackle also still likes ti/qi 13.
>MEO: EN D3 NE. +24 160
#note 0:48 [19:53] MEO seals up the hotspot with minimalist score and mixed but passable leave.
>JJB: EGILSTT B7 GELT +14 221
#note 2:40 [6:49] (ti 3j 4 +4.6) At risk of breaking up his bingo rack, JJB must now choose between fishing and scoring. Fishes are favored statically, but simulation suggests either gelt, or gristle/grist n1 if one has the guts. Perhaps 10-12 points might be a good rule of thumb for the standard maximum sacrifice for a fish. JJB wants to save the S, but it can be cashed now with islet/istle 25, sometimes simulating on top. Honorable mention: tutti/it/qi 19.
>MEO: BDEELNR 1L NEED +25 185
#note 1:17 [18:36] (djebel 1a 57 +35.0) MEO spots reblend/blender but JJB has not been obliging with openings. However, there's a bingo equivalent that comes within 4 of the lead: djebel 57! It keeps NR and is a full 35 static points ahead of his second-place choice. However, he is only 36 behind now and will close this gap later.
>JJB: ?ILSTUY 10B .rUSTILY +62 283
#note 2:33 [4:16] JJB sees sultrily but not the available stultify, and is very unsure whether he should play trustily. However the earlier declined opportunities press him to be a bit more confident this time and seize a 98-point lead when opponent accepts.
>MEO: BFLRS D8 FL.BS +28 213
#note 2:00 [16:36] MEO makes the best-looking play from a consonant-heavy draw to his BLR leave. His racks still favor bingos but his striking distance is not easy to reach.
>JJB: AAIIOOU 1A A.I +30 313
#note 0:20 [3:56] (exchange AAIIOOU +1.9) JJB pulls 7 non-E vowels after his bingo. Quackle would exchange all with a well-balanced bag, but JJB wants to claim the J, sacrificing only 1.9 static points.
>MEO: ADDER H10 .ARDED +27 240
#note 2:50 [13:46] (ladder h10 30 +3) MEO opens new bingo lines and seems to favor D in the triple line rather than R as in ladder.
>JJB: AAINOOU 12G U.ANIA +12 325
#note 1:31 [2:25] (audio 13f 8 +3.9) JJB can still ditch 4 vowels without the N by playing audio or souari cheaply, but he wants the kicker upfront even though it likely affects his next rack.
>MEO: MM 11K MM +24 264
#note 2:58 [10:48] Vowel dumps beget consonant dumps.
>JJB: EHOOOSY 14E HOO.Y +13 338
#note 0:58 [1:27] (sooey e10 26 +15.4) Again JJB is overawed by his competition and refuses to play the easy sooey 26, but has little time to look for options and goes for closing off a bit more of rows 14-15. He has three of the six remaining Os in the game.
>MEO: EIILRST N4 SILTIER +78 342
#note ~1:33 [~9:15] MEO pulls the trigger on his S play after a minute and a half, taking the lead by 4 but with 4 wildcards in the bag, giving JJB both the challenge decision and the analysis decisions with only a minute and a half himself. However, he has time to calculate that win chances are low (about 10%) via opponent response in column O. It turns out that the number of cases where he can win with the last four tiles are a lot fewer than the number of cases where he can bingo powerfully on the next turn! Of the 792 cases, lis 12b 3 is rated at 32%, slightly ahead of til/qi 14, probably because Quackle thinks opponent will put the F on 13c and not block a bingo. Thus declining to bingo while clocking til/qi might be the winningest play!
>JJB: EFNOOOS O6 OOF +37 375
#note 0:44 [0:43] (foos o5 36, okra c12 18+8 +1) JJB takes what he sees while reserving time in case opponent does not go out for some reason. He had just enough time to notch it up one point more by calculating foos 36.
>MEO: AKOR C12 OKRA +18 360
#note ~9:10 [0:05] MEO uses all remaining time to optimize, finding the same score as kora/knee.
>MEO: (ENOS) +8 368
#note MEO worked his way to the bingo and the lead, but with a 4-tile draw that gave him only 10% win odds. JJB drew better but missed significant opportunities by declining dozenths and sooey so barely kept the board balanced enough for a win. Known points available: MEO 3, JJB 3. Overall points available: MEO 39.9+, JJB 133.1.
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