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#character-encoding UTF-8
#player1 MM Mack Meller
#player2 JJB John J. Bulten
>MM: ?EMNSST H4 MiSSENT +72 72
#note ~1:00 [~24:00] JJB is privileged to play a small tournament hosted by the incomparable MM at his house. MM starts (drawing E to I) and naturally opens with a bingo, at odds of about 2 out of 15.
>JJB: AEGGNRS 5C GREAS.NG +68 68
#note ~1:15 [~23:45] (engagers 8h 86 +18) JJB also has a bingo rack but does not calculate engagers 86 and, though the rack is common, doesn't succeed in being certain of all three of gearings (also 86), greasing, snaggier. Against MM one must be certain, so JJB forgoes the 18 points.
>MM: BEEINOO C2 BOO.IE +20 92
#note ~1:02 [22:58] MM draws five vowels and dumps optimally.
>JJB: AEEEPTV D1 VAPE. +40 108
#note ~3:01 [20:44] JJB sees the clearly advantaged parallel, claiming the beginning of a lead.
>MM: DEENOQS 6B Q. +31 123
#note 0:18 [22:40] Leave is +14.3.
>JJB: CEEGLNT D7 NEGLECT +74 182
#note 0:48 [19:56] One bingo is all that's needed to get up by 59 and hope that bingos remain even afterward.
>MM: DEENOSW 1D .OWED +36 159
#note 1:34 [21:06] Slightly behind is the leave of DEENS +19.9 with wos 29.
>JJB: DIIMOTU 6F MI.O +26 208
#note 3:46 [16:10] Now JJB flirts with 5s and 6s, probably seeing dimout but not constructing odium/duomi, idiom, or oidium. However, miso gains 5 over the best placement of odium (4 perpendiculars), which is barely enough for DITU to favor over IT. To maintain the lead there may be an advantage to odium, which closes more lines than it opens.
>MM: ?EHNRSZ 13B Zi.HERNS +92 251
#note 1:11 [19:55] MM's +13.8 leave and his fresh blank give him a good lead with a rare bingo, which also plays for one point less at 10f.
>JJB: ADITUUW - +0 208
#note 1:58 [14:12] (wide 8a 35 +35.7) With a rack worth -20.2, JJB abandons the long-haul strategy and pins his hopes on the tiny chance that MM could be wrong, based on JJB's uncertain memory of this list last year. Poor choice. He is aware the D is directed at 8c but doesn't construct wide 35, with leave of -19.5, a slight improvement but miles ahead of an unreasonable risk-reward challenge calculation. Wad/za/id gets 38 with almost equivalent value. All the 30s here overcome the leave.
>MM: BFIIIOT 14E IF +31 282
#note 3:53 [16:02] MM rightly takes his own 30 and is fine with a leave of -12.1.
>JJB: ADITUUW 15A AUDIT +27 235
#note 0:48 [13:24] (wide 8a 35 +1.5) Again wide and wad lead the field, but now audit 27 is close enough to be a fair judgment call and has more hopes of rack balance.
>MM: BEIIORT 10A TRI.OBI.E +69 351
#note 0:15 [15:47] Incredible! Win odds now 97%, more than 10% ahead of the field (e.g. rob b1 17).
>JJB: JKOTUUW H12 K.OW +48 283
#note 1:46 [11:38] An easy choice that helps on points, but the rack is clamping down on options. In simulation, jut 30 is holding its own around 4%, with know 48 at 2% to 3%. Outjut almost fits.
>MM: CFNRTVY 11C F.Y +33 384
#note 0:59 [14:48]
>JJB: AHJLTUU 11I THUJA +32 315
#note 2:43 [8:55] (jut a8 30 +1.1) Great find in the hopes of better draws, but LU is actually rated -5.9, and the leave and win chances after jut 30 are better.
>MM: ACDNRTV M8 VAC.NT +24 408
#note 1:25 [13:23] (cadent 8a 38 +6.9) After eight consecutive Quackle matches, MM bails on 8a because of lack of 100% certainty about "boogied"; the reason turns out to be that a bougie is a candle. Thus cadent leads (cadet and even dev are also rated better). In b1 we have vac 33, and in MM's column one can tweak cravat 28.
>JJB: DILLOUU 8A LUD. +26 341
#note 2:10 [6:45] JJB finally is compelled to play boogied cheaply and is now only hoping to acquit himself well in the endgame.
>MM: DIILOPR 12K PO.D +36 444
#note 2:08 [11:15] MM holds, then allows, finally recalling the boogie/bougie difference. He has a clear high score with overlap to reply with. The I-dump of livid 30 is just behind with its PRO leave only -.5, but opening up an easy bingo line is not a pro move. Even blockier by a hair is dorp 2g 19.
>JJB: AEEILOU 8J ELU.IA +30 371
#note 1:12 [5:33] JJB is thankful for an easy list word manifesting, leaving one in bag.
>MM: IILNRRX O5 LIR. +4 448
#note 4:24 [6:51] (xi 9j 20 +8.4; dirl n12 12 +8) Despite static value of xi 20, among guaranteed wins, the threatened setup of lira 4 outperforms all by about 8 points (with 5 out of 8 chances at sextuple X).
>JJB: AAEEORY N4 YEA +14 385
#note 3:07 [2:26] (areae 4j 13, nixe n1 22, yo b1 20+4 +16) JJB takes 3 minutes to calculate blocks, and MM agrees postmortem with the wisdom of yea 14; but the secondary threat is axing 29, and areae/ag blocks both. Areae 13 will net 15 if opponent blocks oy/yo 22 with nixe 22. Yea will net -1 with best play.
>MM: AINRX 4K NIX. +28 476
#note 1:40 [5:11] Net of 15 is 1 better than axing 29, aero 13+2.
>JJB: AEOR 2H AERO +9 394
#note 1:56.7 [0:29.3] To get higher score but same spread, don't go out: oxer/eel/rai m3 28, ars 7f 13+2, net 13.
>JJB: (AR) +4 398
#note JJB holds his own against MM until missing a critical play on move 5 and opting to challenge instead. However, both players make many optimal moves in a high-pressure game, MM having uncertainty about only one, and finding an endgame threat not noted in static value, while JJB's uncertainty about one and failure to find areae as an endgame double block would still not have given him enough to win by the applied metric. Known points available: MM 8, JJB 34. Overall points available: MM 15.3, JJB 72.3.
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