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#player1 Michael_Fagen Michael Fagen
#player2 Jackson Jackson
>Michael_Fagen: AAEEGIJ 8H AJEE +22 22
>Jackson: EIILORV 9G VIOL +26 26
>Michael_Fagen: AAEGIIS -AAGII +0 22
>Jackson: CDDEINR 10H REDID +32 58
#note or REDD, which I did not consider. I think that is better, CIN works well together.
>Michael_Fagen: AADEGRS 11K DAG +19 41
>Jackson: ACFNOQU K5 CAF. +18 76
#note hits QUINOA with an I, which is nice
>Michael_Fagen: AAEEHRS M11 .AE +8 49
>Jackson: ALNOQUU 13I QUAL. +24 100
#note a fun idea is just (F)OU, which keeps QUINOA, QUANT, QUANGO draws with GAEN, plus can hit hard if he plays with GAE hooks (and if he plays with AIR hooks the GAEN spot stays open). QUALE still seems like the play by a small margin given his range, but it's close. With his actual rack of AEHRS, QUALE wins a sim
>Michael_Fagen: AEHIRRS 11B HARRIES +74 123
>Jackson: CLNOORU B10 C.URN +32 132
#note with 5 Ns and one L out, slightly preferred LOO here, plus CHURN lets me overlap with OO if I draw an M. Sims a point ahead
>Michael_Fagen: AEFLMOV A12 MEAL +38 161
>Jackson: AELNOOT 10B .LOOT +19 151
#note no need to panic. OOT is reasonable to to increase bingo %, which is quite a good goal on this board that has a few marginal lanes (the first to hit will be quite favoured). CLOOT draws an extra tile toward the S though, whcih is important here, and ofc I am trying to slowly outrun here. this does win a sim, but I think OOT is reasonable to grab 8% of extra bingoage
>Michael_Fagen: EFINOUV 14H VINE +26 187
>Jackson: AEEINNY C13 AYE +24 175
#note damn missed YI(ELD) which is cool. that really makes the game about hitting DAGS, which is annoying, but it's a chance I likely have to take. Eventually I could always drop some block like AE if I get in a good position. I considered ALANE, AYE, EYE, LANAI here. I did not love the Y at all, since I think bingoing is a pretty important thing here, and AYE maximizes that goal. I think AYE is a decent play over YIELD even, just cause YIELD really pigeonholes me in to hitting DAGS, and I am not the favourite to do so.
>Michael_Fagen: AFNOTUY G13 YOU +18 205
>Jackson: EINNNPX 6F PENNI. +16 191
#note the X setup was a nice bonus for what I would play either way
>Michael_Fagen: ABEFNTT 12D BAT +26 231
>Jackson: BEGINRX 7D IBEX +42 233
>Michael_Fagen: EEFNOTW 8A TOWNEE +42 273
>Jackson: GINOPRZ 6B ZIG +37 270
#note felt like the P was worth keeping over the G here, for scoring plays at H1 and flexibility
>Michael_Fagen: FGMSTTW -FGMTTW +0 273
>Jackson: ?KNOPRU G5 K.. +14 284
#note michael is 60% to have drawn the blank after his exchange, assuming he didnt keep the blank on an exchange (which is a fair assumption). I didnt see PUNKIN here for 48, which is quite reasonable. That puts me at 50% to draw the blank, which is basically a straight up win for me, plus he has to bingo to win, and if he bingoes immediately I can sometimes counterplay to outrun by just enough. I strongly considered OK as well, doubling my shot at the blank, blocking DAGS. I felt the pool was bad enough to not worry too much about bingoes, in a raw sim he bingoes 16% after KEX, but a bit higher in reality after his exchange, maybe even up to 30-35%. OK is quite defensive in that regard, and I can try to just squeak out the endgame with blank in hand. I did not consider R(EX), which sets up my P. I chose KEX because he exchanged consonants, likelily, so the O has a lot of value in keeping, plus hits more bingoes for myself immediately. I think PUNKIN, OK, and KEX are all reasonable here
>Michael_Fagen: IORSSST 15I SI +17 290
>Jackson: ??NOPRU N5 iNPOURs +66 350
#note crazy pull on a one tile play! felt bad for michael, who had been playing tons of tiles going for the blanks
>Michael_Fagen: FGORSST O7 OFT +39 329
>Jackson: DHMOTTW M2 WHOM +27 377
>Michael_Fagen: GIRSS 4L G. +6 335
>Jackson: DTT 5M ..D +5 382
>Michael_Fagen: IRSS 9M R.. +4 339
>Jackson: TT 15C .T +3 385
>Michael_Fagen: ISS C5 S. +2 341
>Jackson: T - +0 385
>Michael_Fagen: IS 13I .....S +15 356
>Michael_Fagen: IS -- -15 341
>Jackson: T - +0 385
>Michael_Fagen: IS 13A ...S +10 351
>Jackson: T - +0 385
>Michael_Fagen: I H5 I. +8 359
>Michael_Fagen: (T) +2 361
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