| Player 1 |
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#player1 Arie_Sinke Arie Sinke
#player2 Jackson_Smylie Jackson Smylie
>Arie_Sinke: FFHIKQZ 8G FIZ +30 30
#note Awkward opening rack. The sim likes QI a little better (i.e. by a basically negligible margin consistently.) I reasoned that I was fairly likely to be exchanging next turn anyhow, so I might as well snag the 8 extra points while I can.
>Jackson_Smylie: AEEIMRU 7C UREMIA +18 18
#note MAUZIER may be a case where the offense balances out for both of us. looks a hair better than UREMIA or FEU
>Arie_Sinke: FGHKQSW -FGKQW +0 30
#note Exchanging is clearly called for here. This looks like the best exchange.
>Jackson_Smylie: DEEEINT 8A TINED +29 47
#note ZEE, TINED, ED, DENE. all reasonable choices. Quackle thinks ZEE is 5 points better than all the others - I guess H10 plays are encouraged and give me floaters. I am not super against TINED but it's hard to argue against 59% bingo chances, and I don't think Arie should be forgoing most H10 plays for my range. looks like an error
>Arie_Sinke: HHIRRSU E2 HURRI.. +22 52
#note This looks substantially better than any other play.
>Jackson_Smylie: ?DEEELO 2A fEED.OLE +76 123
#note knew it this time around
>Arie_Sinke: BHNOPSV 1H PHON +39 91
#note Quackle does not love this play. It seems like the B and the V have strong negative synergy, more so than I thought. HOB wins the sim despite keeping an extra consonant. PHONS also wins the sim by a small margin over PHON, which I would not have guessed (there are three S's to come.) Perhaps PHON suffers from creating a number of hooks that I don't have? Only about a 4 point error, and I'm not even sure this is wrong.
>Jackson_Smylie: AEEMRTY 2J MEATY +44 167
>Arie_Sinke: ?BEIPSV 4A VIPE. +28 119
#note This looks substantially better than any other play.
>Jackson_Smylie: EGILRTU L2 .GLU +10 177
#note (RE)GULI was one of those plays that felt right for some reason. It sims a few points above AGLU or 6a LUG. I like that REGULI can let me block the A column more easily later - it feelt weird to open the board for him, but the board will not become closed at this point, and scoring a bit more while keeping ERT is good. I think this is a mistake, even though AGLU looks better on paper
>Arie_Sinke: ?ABNOSS 6I BASSoON +68 187
#note Quackle really likes forgoing the bingo here with 1M ABS for 24 (by about a point over my play.) I don't really think I agree with that; 44 points is a lot to give up, and the board is not particularly bingo friendly (before AGLU my only option was ANTiBOSS A6 for 60) so the NOS? leave is surely devalued a bit.
>Jackson_Smylie: AEINRTW 9H TAWNIER +77 254
>Arie_Sinke: ACDIRTU O4 CU.IT +30 217
#note Nowhere for DATURIC. This is best.
>Jackson_Smylie: ABEGJNX 8K AX +36 290
#note ABGJN statically a couple better, but the bag is running low on Es. EX still sims a couple ahead, I didn't noticed JAG(G), and keeping that with EX is important.
>Arie_Sinke: ADEORSY 1A EYRA +38 255
#note Quackle hates this play, and Quackle is probably right here. EYRA is the sort of play that I tend to overvalue. It scores and attempts to outrun rather than bingoing, which is not a very hopeful prospect with a 35 point deficit after the play. OY 1A scores 23 and bingos next turn 48% of the time, compared to 8% (startlingly low actually) when I play EYRA and keep DOS. I think plays like OY are a bit overvalued because they tend to elicit defensive responses from expert players (for Jackson, something as simple as a 3 tile play at 9B would block almost every bingo, if he has an I, without sacrificing much equity.) But it's still better than the point grabbing plays that I compulsively make.
>Jackson_Smylie: BEGJLNV J5 J.B +12 302
#note VLE(I) is worth it.
>Arie_Sinke: DKOOOSW 1N OK +23 278
#note This demonstrates how quickly your rack can sour when you keep a three tile leave like DOS. OK is the best I can do, and there are even some bingos I can luck into with the DOOSW leave.
>Jackson_Smylie: EGILNOV 5J .E. +24 326
#note could play UNGLOVE or UNLOVING right now. JEU keeps the latter, and scores a bit more immediately. UNGLOVE and UNLOVING only raise his bingo % marginally, respectively, and it's nice for his bingoes to give back more than the 10 row ones would. UNLOVING seems good now for that reason.
>Arie_Sinke: CDOOSSW 10I SOD +29 307
#note I change my strategy here - I'm now fully committed to outrunning. I'm only down 19 and I have the case S, and Jackson is fairly likely to be hampered by a U-less Q, if not now at some point in the future if I get lucky. Quackle likes burning the case S with SODS (I think undervaluing it) but also suggests ODS at 10J, which I like, as it's more aggressive, giving me higher scoring responses on row 11 while only sacrificing 2 points (unfortunately Jackson will often score on row 11 himself after ODS, but I'm down and I have to hope to get lucky.)
>Jackson_Smylie: EGILNOV C7 ..GLOVE +26 352
#note I think I should play UNLOVING here, the hooks on UNGLOVE are harder to block cause of the V, though UNGLOVE apparently averages quite a bit more. It does bingo more, but if I am drawing good enough tiles to bingo I am probably winning anyways
>Arie_Sinke: CEORSTW 12C .OW +18 325
#note I have to fish here; outrunning isn't likely to work anymore. A number of options are reasonable, and this is one of them. J9 WOW was Jackson's choice, and it bingos a lot more because it sets up a second spot. I get outrun a lot more when I bingo after WOW, but I also run that risk bingoing after VOW, particularly if I draw the Q or if Jackson has it and can score well with something like QADI. Quackle has the two plays very close together along with OW 3G, which scores about the same for the same 2 tiles while leaving the floaters in UNGLOVE unobstructed. Taking the 38 points with either of the two placements of ESCROW and coming within 7 should only win 15-20% of the time here.
>Jackson_Smylie: AGIINNO B11 NAOI +22 374
#note I may want to play OWING instead, which deals with the Q better. The worry was that it allows more bingoes and lets him make some specific fishes with multiple lines open. NAOI can lose to a Q stil, but I have to not draw the A or S.
>Arie_Sinke: ACDERST 13A D.. +4 329
#note This should win when I draw the I (for ERRATICS N8 or CRISTAE F9) or the A (I stick Jackson with the Q, as he won't be able to play QAT A6.) I would win by a much more comfortable margin with the Q stick sequence if I noticed UNGLOVED, which also blocks QI but scores 12 more and also wins 25% of the time.
>Jackson_Smylie: AFGINQT 12B ....ING +16 390
>Arie_Sinke: ACELRST 11E EL +16 345
#note I found the best out in two here.
>Jackson_Smylie: AFQT A6 QA. +12 402
>Arie_Sinke: ACRST 11K SCART +24 369
>Arie_Sinke: (FT) +10 379 |
