| Player 1 |
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#character-encoding UTF-8
#player1 Judy_Levitt Judy Levitt
#player2 Stefan_Kac Stefan Kac
>Judy_Levitt: OFH 8G FOH +18 18
>Stefan_Kac: IOORVWY 7F YOW +21 21
#note Club 44
15 February 2023
Round 4 (my game 3)
Determined to offload WY here and to play some defense, so didn't even see IVORY. Sim does like the YOW options ≈2 better than IVORY, we do bingo somewhat more, and opp less, but the turnover seems extra valuable here and the floaters not more dangerous than the likely (FOH)N play that is coming. In this particular instance though, I unscientifically estimate Judy's bingo% after an opening play of FOH at more like 75%, not the 40% that sim gives her after IVORY, so YOW is fine this time and our only consolation is that IORV bingos marginally more often than OW.
>Judy_Levitt: EPNT J6 PENT +22 40
>Stefan_Kac: EIIOHRV 6B VIREO +25 46
>Judy_Levitt: AXZ K5 ZAX +51 91
>Stefan_Kac: EIUHDLN D4 HU.LED +22 68
#note Bad miss of UNHI(R)ED.
>Judy_Levitt: AEOT L2 TOEA +19 110
>Stefan_Kac: INNNSSW 8A WIN.S +24 92
#note Did see INNS (and WINNS#) but decided to close the easiest lanes and force opp's bingo into the narrower openings. Sim likes INNS by a wider margin than the difference in score, which is crazy given that we meaningfully improve our bingo% with WINES.
>Judy_Levitt: AK 9H KA. +24 134
>Stefan_Kac: AEINNRS M3 INSNARE +86 178
>Judy_Levitt: AAEI??N L8 ENtAsIA +67 201
>Stefan_Kac: AEBDLTV 10F BLED +30 208
#note Complex position. Argument for BLED: it scores the most; AAs are about to become scarce (five EEs versus two AAs unseen here); opp (this opp especially) is likely to block up the lower right next turn, so maxing out bingo chances isn't necessarily the best line here, and if the game does become more tactical and less open then indeed the A is going to be worth keeping (though in that case it would also be great to lose the V instead of the B); we're not especially likely to draw an ess for (ENtAsIA)S but it can't hurt to burn an extra tile or two.
Sim finds and somewhat prefers B(U)D and has us bingoing ~27% after, versus single digits for all longer plays. But given the likelihood of a block this is dubious.
The other play I considered, VAL(I)D, also sims just barely ahead of BLED. I passed it up because it seemed valuable to at least force the block given that I momentarily have "rack tempo" after we have both bingoed.
(Undercounted by 1!)
>Judy_Levitt: AIJLS 15H JAILS +46 247
>Stefan_Kac: AAIOLTV E2 OVAT. +25 233
>Judy_Levitt: IOCGN 1A COIGN +39 286
>Stefan_Kac: AEEEIOL E10 ALEE +16 249
#note I'm running out of gas and don't see anything here but there are tons of options to consider. ALEE for the same score at N6 is a pretty brilliant fork. Sim loves O(W)IE and ≈25% chances to bingo but I think we just get outrun that way. The max turnover options are O(B)ELIA and (B)AILEE. Or K10 ILEA. Or N6 OE to "block the block." It's better to be lucky than good, and I got lucky here being ≈7% to bingo and ≈20% after WINES.
>Judy_Levitt: UBG K11 BUG +24 310
>Stefan_Kac: EIOCGRT N7 ERGOTIC +68 317
#note I was spooked enough by the unseen NEE hooks to play this for less points.
(Undercounted by 3!)
>Judy_Levitt: Q J14 Q. +31 341
#note The second A in ENtAsIAS got jarred loose and flipped over here and somehow neither of us could figure out where it came from. Catching the bus is at this juncture equal in concern to my dwindling clock and the mysterious tile, so I suggest we just put it back in the bag. In it goes.
>Stefan_Kac: OUFPRST D12 PROF +36 353
#note Judy was surprised that I took a while to play this, and I was surprised that she was surprised. It's not straightforward at all and doesn't sniff the top of a fourply sim. D12 FOP should have been more obvious. 2B STO(O)P has the virtue of deploying my scoring tiles one a time, which is what I was taking the time to look for. POUF was really tempting and sim does like it better than PROF, but I couldn't get there.
>Judy_Levitt: EDY F12 DEY +24 365
>Stefan_Kac: IIUDNST C8 .IDUS +18 371
#note IDI(O)T under COIGN is much better.
>Judy_Levitt: UMM K1 MUM +14 379
>Stefan_Kac: ITT A7 T.IT +7 378
>Stefan_Kac: (AERR) +8 386 |
