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#character-encoding UTF-8
#player1 Haanah Haanah
#player2 David David
>Haanah: DEORZ 8D DOZER +34 34
>David: NOOOQUW 7G WOO +22 22
>Haanah: ?EEINRT D1 INTERbE. +68 102
>David: AGNOQUU 2A QUA.GO +36 58
#note The sim prefers QUA by about 2 points, for the score but perhaps also because it keeps N with the G, and plays an A instead of an O, when 3 O's are already out an no A's. I considered QUA but thought it would lead to easy response plays on the B column to which I might not have much to answer. It generally seemed to lead to a more closed board, which I disfavored after already being behind by a bingo.
The main other play I considered was not QUA but QUOIN, which scores most and doesn't give much back. However, with the extra U, it seemed lucrative to play the Q at 2A and hope for folowup plays like AQUA, EQUID, EQUAL, etc., or SQU- plays. I believe it lost the sim because of the easy triple it opens on row 1, and the chance Hannah may have a good Q rack of her own. The 2 point equity difference compared to the 5 point score difference at least seems to vindicate my idea of reusing the Q.
>Haanah: ABHL 1F BLAH +31 133
>David: DEKNOSU 6F KENDO +34 92
#note Very happy with this draw!
>Haanah: EP F8 .EP +20 153
>David: BDGOSSU 11C GOBS +29 121
>Haanah: ADEIMOU 2H MIAOUED +83 236
#note The cat is out of the bag!
>David: DPRSTUX D10 P.X +24 145
>Haanah: EIJV L1 J.VIE +46 282
#note Gulp...
>David: DILRSTU 7D .L +4 149
#note This was a real dilemma. Play SQUIRT for 48 and hope to be the first to extend it with -ED? Or fish for SQUIRTED for 212 or 221? While I held the case D, the possibility of SQUIRTER or SQUIRTING remained for her to play first. Moreover, even after getting the extension next turn, I'm still likely down by about a bingo after getting these two plays, though the board is fairly dead. However, I judged that this would also make it harder to open things up longer term.
The sim of EL vs. SQUIRT is a split decision: EL wins about 8.5% of the time with about a 32.5 point valuation, and SQUIRT wins about 3.1% of the time and earns a 50 point valuation. This being the final game of the tournament and my record being far out of contention for even top 4 or 5, spread became irrelevant, and thus, equity. Fishing for SQUIRTED with 5 E's and a blank unseen seemed worth a few turns, considering the payoff.
>Haanah: AHM 3G HAM +31 313
>David: DIRSTTU 9E T. +5 154
#note The same logic as last turn would seem to apply, given that the Q is still open and she's now 27 more points ahead.The sim agrees by about the same margin, but this time SQUIRT wins less than 1% of the time!
>Haanah: AG C11 .AG +19 332
>David: ?DIRSTU A1 S.UIRTeD +212 366
#note Easily wins a sim :-)
>Haanah: ATV B12 TAV +25 357
>David: ELNORTY 1L .OEY +47 413
#note No spot for ELYTRON
>Haanah: F 5K F. +10 367
#note Clearly fishing, but WOOF 7G for 15 would be better. Easy to miss though
>David: AEILNRT M5 RELIANT +65 478
>Haanah: S 8D .....S +20 387
>David: ACFINRY L9 FAIRY +31 509
>Haanah: AEINNST 15B STANINE +81 468
>David: CIILNRU 14G INCUR +13 522
#note LYRIC for a few more, but by now I was finally safe
>Haanah: CEEW N4 EEW +34 502
>David: IL F4 IL. +7 529
>David: (C) +6 535
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