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#character-encoding UTF-8
#player1 Jackson_Smylie Jackson Smylie
#player2 Josh_Sokol-Rubenstein Josh Sokol-Rubenstein
>Jackson_Smylie: ACELLRT -L +0 0
>Josh_Sokol-Rubenstein: KLNPSUW -LUKW +0 0
#note he thought PLUNK was phony. according to some sims, it is worth it to throw back the P, he bingoes more with bingo ranges specified, and doesn't quite make up the scoring diff. NS a bit ahead of LS, and LPS does a bit better than NPS
>Jackson_Smylie: ACEILRT H2 RECITAL +74 74
>Josh_Sokol-Rubenstein: ANPSSTX 3H .XPATS +46 46
>Jackson_Smylie: ADINNOT 8A NONTIDA. +80 154
>Josh_Sokol-Rubenstein: EGINOSS K3 .GONISES +68 114
>Jackson_Smylie: ADEEEEF C3 DEAFE. +22 176
#note Q likes FE(R)E here, which I am not super against cause my lead isn't big and the board is open, so its nice to run with aggressive lines, but damn DEAFEN is way more thematic. FERE sims about 6 ahead. hard to argue with the duck here, cause its not like im doing much long term board control
>Josh_Sokol-Rubenstein: ??GITVW 8K .WIVe +42 156
>Jackson_Smylie: BDEEUVY B2 DEBYE +45 221
#note very much not looking good with him having ? in hand. considered BE(V)VY, maybe I shoulda done it to respond better to bingoes, but this sims a few ahead with his actual rack specified, which is about what I thought he had, he's gotta have two consonants and a blank, at least one of the consonants being quite clunky. He slapped down SWIVE quickly so his rack had to be bad enough where bingoes were clearly impossible
>Josh_Sokol-Rubenstein: ?GLMOTZ 7G Z.G +46 202
>Jackson_Smylie: ABEIRUV 10H ABU.IVE +16 237
#note really no great options here. I considered BU(R)A but don't love opening a lane like that when he has a blank and has been balancing his leave for a turn. ABUSIVE the idea is basically to give myself better options after he bingoes, cause I may have the 11 row, I can open from the A in abusive, plus if he doesn't hit now, ABUSIVE can let me kill some lanes after. Not like i can really stop him from bingoing forever, but temporary measures can help. BURA might just be better to take the L and start outscoring/keeping better to bingo back. As much as the 1 row bingoes will kill me, when he doesn't hit that lane it can be really useful for me to responds to his bingoes. I could do VI(V)A here as well. I think those both might be better than ABUSIVE, which doesn't have a great plan besides these vague ways it opens the board later
>Josh_Sokol-Rubenstein: ?EGLMOT E3 LOnGT.ME +70 272
>Jackson_Smylie: AINOORR 2F OR.A +15 252
#note this sims below ROTOR and TORO. Didnt see DONAIR or DONOR, which are very worth considering as well. ORRA is nice to open the dangerous 1 row, making his life more difficult. I didnt love ROTOR how it lets him block the O column with nice 1 row plays, but maybe TORO is a happy medium between the two. INOR isn't so much worse than AINR for bingo %, but a clearly worse leave overall.
>Josh_Sokol-Rubenstein: AHIJMRW A1 JAW +49 321
#note or HILR
>Jackson_Smylie: IILNORT H10 .ROINT +21 273
#note VIOLIN might be a better version of thise - bingoes slightly more, and is more aggressive overall. Plays like VIOL and IZAR are good in a sim, but I think Josh correctly blocks upstairs enough where they are slightly worse. It is still hard for him to block the O column though.
>Josh_Sokol-Rubenstein: AHILMNR F10 HILAR +31 352
#note or HARMIN
>Jackson_Smylie: AEEILOO L3 .OEA +18 291
>Josh_Sokol-Rubenstein: MNPQSTU 1I TUMP +21 373
>Jackson_Smylie: DEEILOU D1 DUE +15 306
#note hard to see winning here. D2 OE bingoes quite a bit more immediatley. Maybe it could be good to hold the U and try to go for a Q bingo down the line. My plan was to "score" now, have him drop the Q, and try to score enough leaving 1 in the bag to eke it out, which OE has a slightly harder time with, scoring less and having to play 4 after a Q drop. very slim pickings either way
>Josh_Sokol-Rubenstein: HINOQRS M7 Q. +21 394
>Jackson_Smylie: CEILORY 4J E.. +8 314
#note only other reasonable play I saw was YER, which enacts my play of leaving 1 in the bag and going for a high scoring out-bingo. Q says I hit around 14% after YER - Josh has to not block these bingoes, and I have to not get outrun. these are big ifs, I think outrunning is slightly more likely if I hit, but it's not guarantee - something like HORK/YERK would outrun TELSONIC, for example. This play I made fishes for the N for NONLYRIC A8. Leaving 3 in the bag makes it less likely he realizes what I'm fishing for, and the N is not something he'll ever be inclined to block with the T and E open. Only problem is getting outrun - he plays something like AHI/RIN for 22 leaving 1 in the bag, if I hit NONLYRIC it puts me at 415 to his 416 - I need him to have a bad rack immediately + draw a decent outplay with the 1 tile. When playing through actual racks, it becomes clear that EGO + NONLYRIC hardly ever wins without a fuckup on his part - he would have to empty the bag. There are a few lines where I can win - he has to spend his F with something like IF 9N (he cant have the H immediately), then I draw the H, but I think YER must win slightly more often.
>Josh_Sokol-Rubenstein: HINNORS 15H .INHORNS +86 480
>Jackson_Smylie: CILORUY D10 YOUR +23 337
>Josh_Sokol-Rubenstein: EFK O6 KE.F +10 490
>Josh_Sokol-Rubenstein: (CIL) +10 500
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