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#character-encoding UTF-8
#player1 Arie_Sinke Arie Sinke
#player2 Jared_Cappel Jared Cappel
>Arie_Sinke: ABNPSTY 8H BANTY +28 28
#note I didn't see BYPAST, which sims very close to BANTY. Either play is reasonable; in situations like this where there are no unusual positional considerations the 28 point opening play is almost always better than the 26 point opener that avoids putting the vowel beside the DWS.
>Jared_Cappel: ANV 9G VAN +18 18
>Arie_Sinke: GIILNPS 10H PILINGS +74 102
#note Best bingo; LISPING takes an S and SPLINING creates a lot of lines and scores one point less.
>Jared_Cappel: EJLL L4 JELL. +30 48
>Arie_Sinke: BDEINTY 7I BIE.D +26 128
#note I thought of playing BEY/BYE but ultimately decided to take the extra 10 points. A sim actually likes BYE 5J by a small margin, but not BEY, which bingos 7% less often (39% versus 46%), likely because it obstructs the S and doesn't create a line for sevens. BIELD is okay as it lowers variance and partially closes the board with a lead.
>Jared_Cappel: ADILNNO 5G NONID.AL +68 116
>Arie_Sinke: EEEENTY 4G EYE +23 151
#note Boring play, no other reasonable options.
>Jared_Cappel: DEITTW 3B WITTED +30 146
>Arie_Sinke: CEENRST A3 TENRECS +91 242
#note Jared put me on hold for TWITTED for a long time. This is best.
>Jared_Cappel: EIOUV D1 OU.VIE +20 166
>Arie_Sinke: AFGIOQR 2C Q.A +25 267
#note This is probably too paranoid. Quackle hates it, but sims are of limited value with a substantial lead or deficit. I reasoned that I could play FROG E5 next turn and take out the two biggest lines on the board, which are certainly the ones that are likeliest to get Jared back in the game fast. In the long run, however, I'm vulnerable to bingos that arent 3x3s. This would probably be a great play if I were up by 150 or 200 and could outrun two bingos, but with a 76 point lead I just can't justify it. Also, QI plays for 36 at 6F. That's a lot of equity to give up. QUA sets up AQUA, making Jared's average score for his next play slightly higher than the alternatives (while bringing the standard deviation from 30 to 18).
>Jared_Cappel: AW B1 WA. +44 210
>Arie_Sinke: AFGIIOR E5 FRIG +28 295
#note This is best despite the poor leave. Scores and blocks.
>Jared_Cappel: ?EEHOOR C6 HOnOREE +67 277
>Arie_Sinke: AADFIOZ 12A ZO.A +46 341
#note Here the Z spot isn't a big deal, as the board has become a lot more volatile, particularly with two Ss out for HOnOREES, so this does sim better than ZOA 3I for 44.
>Jared_Cappel: CHKOS 13C SHOCK +63 340
#note This is best solely on account of score.
>Arie_Sinke: ADEFIPU A11 A.IDE +45 386
#note This is best solely on account of score.
>Jared_Cappel: GR 11C .RG +14 354
>Arie_Sinke: AFMMPRU B14 AM +18 404
#note Quackle suggests MAP/PAM at 3I. If I draw an E or an O (3 out of 13 unseen tiles) I get FEMUR or FUMER or FORUM for 53, likely outrunning a low scoring bingo. This is okay because it blocks a line, only simming about 4% back of MAP and PAM.
>Jared_Cappel: ?ARSTTU N8 Up.TARTS +64 418
>Arie_Sinke: FMOPRUX 15I FRUMP. +16 420
#note This is best by far - blocks LOUIE J10 and threatens to go out.
>Jared_Cappel: EIOU - +0 418
>Arie_Sinke: OX O11 OX +36 456
#note Jared challenged FRUMPS to give himself a chance. OX is my best out.
>Arie_Sinke: (EIOU) +8 464
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