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#character-encoding UTF-8
#player1 Morris_Greenberg Morris Greenberg
#player2 Jared_Cappel Jared Cappel
>Morris_Greenberg: BCIJNRT 8G JIB +24 24
>Jared_Cappel: BDEMNPR J7 BERM +27 27
#note This sims best despite the E hook it creates.
>Morris_Greenberg: CENORTT H1 CORNETT. +83 107
>Jared_Cappel: DINPRTT 5D DIPN.T +18 45
#note TEPID is simming better. RNT is strong and I am giving back less.
>Morris_Greenberg: EGNOSUW G8 .OW +14 121
#note Considered WOUN(D) too, I liked fishing with a lead here and limiting (BERM)E possibilities for Jared. Quackle prefers WOUN(D) or WU(D).
>Jared_Cappel: EHILORT 1H .LOTHIER +101 146
>Morris_Greenberg: EEGNSSU 11C GENUSES +80 201
>Jared_Cappel: ADEIINO K1 .AENIOID +87 233
#note Almost missed it still fit.
>Morris_Greenberg: AEFGQRU D8 QUE.R +48 249
#note Thought keeping the vowel made QUEER better than QUAE(R)E, Quackle prefers QUAERE though because there has only been 1 A played. I only noticed the A abundance later on.
>Jared_Cappel: ?ISSTTY 13D STYlIST +75 308
>Morris_Greenberg: AEFFGNP J1 .FF +35 284
#note Was choosing between OFF and OFFA, again thought the 3:2 consonants:vowels instead of 3:1 was better, but with the As out, OFFA all the way.
>Jared_Cappel: DHKLOOU L3 HOD +30 338
#note 4A KUDO. I didn't want to open up but the K and U are not all that scary as floaters go and the pool is very ugly, a consequence of the 5 bingos that have already been played using most of the good tiles.
>Morris_Greenberg: ACEGINP 8A CIN. +45 329
>Jared_Cappel: AAKLOUU 4A KOLA +32 370
#note The start of some truly horrific tiles. Quackle agrees with this decision, but the sim will not like any of my plays to come.
>Morris_Greenberg: AEEGMPV 3B MEG +25 354
#note I notice here all of the As, so I don't want to slot a G or P at 3B. I should also play off an A instead of an E here, so either MAP, MAGE or MAG given that idea. Fwiw, Quackle still likes GAMP best, but given how tight the board is I don't think that can be right.
>Jared_Cappel: AEIUUWZ 2N WE +22 392
#note I debated between WE and WIRE. I think it's standard to exchange here but I wanted to keep the scoring pressure on him. The larger deficit affects his decsion making on upcoming turns. The problem with WE is that it sets up 9s that he's going to be able to fish for and so WIRE or G2 WAIN are better if I choose not to exchange. I knew this in game and still made the wrong decision (well I didn't see WAIN). At 3700 iterations, exchange 5 leaving EZ is 55% to win, WAIN is 51%, WIRE is 50.5% and WE is 48%.
>Morris_Greenberg: AEELLPV A8 .LAVE +11 365
#note VEE 2A is the standard equity play but that felt wrong given the pool to keep ALLP. My logic was here that in this game at this point, having the right letters was vital positionally more than anything, and prioritizing that is the most important thing. As a result, getting rd of ALV is important, and keeping an EL for (E)X(I)LE possibilities is important, and otherwise try to go for bingoes off of (RE) O1. I wasn't 100% on (C)ALVE so I played this failing to realize it could give back (CLAVE)RED. This, CALVE and VA(I)L all seem like the top ideas per Quackle sim (I didn't consider VA(I)L during the game but likely would've played it had I thought about it), but very tough position I still am not completely sure about.
>Jared_Cappel: AAIUUYZ F5 .YA +16 408
#note I miss both YAUP and MAUZY, but regardless Quackle much prefers exchanging 5 keeping YZ. I was set on outrunning because of how ugly I was thinking the pool was, but the pool had slowly became stronger as all the poor tiles were played or left sitting on my rack. I knew he did not have the X the previous turn as he would have played EXILE. I wondered if he was keeping EL with this play and he confirmed post-game he was.
>Morris_Greenberg: AAEELOP 4J A..A +14 379
#note I didn't have a ton of time left here after the last 2 turns, I was considering A(NO)A and O(MEG)A and decided getting rid of As as good and OMEGA could give back plays like GO(OK) which isn't good, especially since E(MO) could be a key scoring spot for me given that I have the final 2 Es. Quackle likes both plays, as well as (B)AA(S)E(S) and (B)OA(S) which I missed over the board. I dislike BAASES and OMEGA for board reasons here, ANOA vs BOAS comes down to wanting AEELP or EELOP.
>Jared_Cappel: AIORUUZ 12I OI +7 415
#note My last couple of plays were poor but this one is crazy. I wanted to block EXILE/EXING but for the third turn Quackle is screaming at me to exchange. The one benefit of this turn is that it confused the hell out of Morris who couldn't figure out what I was holding. I was also time-pressuring him on this turn as he was low on clock (and eventually went over). He had drawn 4 tiles out of a pool of 23 unseen tiles but 7 of those were on my rack so he had a 4/16 or 1/4 chance to hit the X. Not nearly enough odds to justify my play.
>Morris_Greenberg: DEELNOP F13 .O +7 386
#note Jared's play gave me no idea what he had in the moment, it was so strange. I saw (RE)OPENED available for 42 to empty the bag, and as tempting as that is, I felt that by playing OI, he had to be holding decent letters that I would be losing most endgames drawing the likely ugly 6 remaining. My idea here is to go for PANELED or (RE)PANELED, and I preferred this spot to (M)O 10J, because only UU? in the bag hook YO whereas I have DN to hook it, and it is really hard for Jared to reach the triple with it in a devastating way such that he'd feel forced to block for very little often burning the blank that I could win some endgames with the right pull (e.g., XED 2A is 36 if I draw the X, and if he holds UUV he can't go out in 2 that I could sneak a win). After the game, I realize playing (BI)N 7J is also a nice option to go for DEVELOP or (RE)DEVELOP with a V draw, or DEPLORE with an R. I still like my play most here, though should realize that AIRZ? is the likeliest tiles Jared is holding here where he could sacrifice points for blocking (E)X(I)LE possibilities (which makes sense because Z? is going to outrun most other plays). If AARZ?, then BIN may be a bit better since there would only be 1 A remaining to go for. All of YO, BIN and MO outperform REOPENED in various rack inferences and no inference via Quackle, but Quackle likes PEO(N) G2 slightly more than these fishes. It still hits (RE) bingos 10% of the time, and goes for hefty plays like (RE)ALIZED or (RE)VALUED in addition to multiple chances for (CLAVE)RED.
>Jared_Cappel: AAIRUUZ 15E AURA +18 433
#note After some very difficult turns that I played poorly, this easy decision was a welcome reprieve.
>Morris_Greenberg: DEELNPV 9F P. +4 390
#note I was out of ideas here and under a minute given all of the complicated turns. I literally can't play off the V to go for REPANELED. I should have played (BI)N to win if I draw the blank for DEVELOP or REDEVELOP, but this was a hard task with the time remaining.
>Jared_Cappel: ?AGIUXZ 6B ZAs +36 469
#note Quackle suggests rUG for 7 leaving AIXZ to block CLAVERED and also set up ZAX I suppose. He was in time penalty and I was playing fast.
>Morris_Greenberg: DEELNRV B12 REV +14 404
#note (REV)EREND or (CLAVE)RED, but now I am over on the clock.
>Jared_Cappel: GIUX 10A .X +25 494
>Morris_Greenberg: DELN 2A LED +22 426
>Jared_Cappel: GIU 10J .UG +6 500
#note It's 1 point better to play BIG to block him from playing BIN...I struggled in the 2nd half of this game and was lucky to pull this one out. Don't think my play in this series was deserving of a 5-0 record, but for 4.5 games I thought I was playing pretty well (save for chickening out on ALKINES) and so this is a big improvement over my lacklustre first set vs. Morris. I was happy with a few plays I made in this set such as my pre-endgame play of LAWMEN and my fish for FIFE, but I was also quite fortunate so many of my bingos played while so many of his bingos were stuck on his rack. Looking forward to our third set!
>Morris_Greenberg: N K10 .N +4 430
>Morris_Greenberg: (I) +2 432
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